Peter Matejic

Take up of Universal Credit statistics are finally out at gov.uk/government/s.... At 72% of people taking it up, it comes out mid-range between last full set of stats for 2015/16 JSA (56%), WTC (65%), CTC (83%) and ESA (84%) stats.

gov.ukgov.uk

Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social

New stats out today with the first official estimates of take-up for Universal Credit (UC), the UK's main means-tested benefit for working-age families. Headline 7 in 10 families who are eligible for UC (or equivalent benefits), claim it.

Part of its business case was Universal Credit (gov.uk/government/p...) "by replacing six working age benefits into a single benefit, increases benefit take-up as it is no longer possible only to take up part entitlement", so being below CTC and ESA is a bit disappointing.

gov.ukgov.uk

Part of this is definitely stigma in claiming benefits, and a good take up campaign for people to claim benefits they are entitled to would be a good way to help with this.

gov.ukDWP Areas of Research Interest 2026

19 June

What do DWP feel are the most important research questions facing them over the next 5 to 10 years? Read this doc... www.gov.uk/government/p....

Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4

When the new (higher) cap comes into the stats in the July data (out in August), it will add 0.4ppts to CPI according to Bank of England. But for now, good news, and another month when the Governor of the Bank doesn't have to write the Chancellor explaining why inflation is over 3%. 3/4

UK inflation is now around the same level as France and Germany, after being higher for the last year, with inflation in France climbing from 0.4% in Jan 26 to 2.8% in latest May data. See www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl... for details. 4/4

ons.gov.ukons.gov.uk

Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4

It's good that food was the category making the biggest downwards contribution, with food inflation falling from 3.0% to 2.2%. The elephant in the room is that the old (lower) energy price cap is still feeding in here (as it will in the June data out next month). 2/4

ukri.orgSector transition: UKRI policy fellowships 2026Apply for this sector transition fellowship to transfer knowledge and skills across academic and policy sectors and increase sector porosity.

11 June

Interesting policy fellowships: www.ukri.org/opportunity/.... Two I'd highlight: 1. DWP to develop evidence of the causal links between experience of poverty and subsequent outcomes. 2. DfT on transport poverty and how improving transport affordability and connectivity.

10 June

Just left #CHASMConference2026. Lots of food for thought about dimensions of insecurity, their interactions and the role of power and agency in how lives play out. Follow @chasm-uob.bsky.social for more insights and thanks to everyone involved.

28 May

Great thread from @rachelcasey.bsky.social. One of the key messages is don't forget the role of childhood poverty in any discussion of what's needed to reduce the number of NEETs.

Rachel Casey@rachelcasey.bsky.social

🧵 1/ The Milburn Review is right to sound the alarm 🚨 Rising numbers of young people out of work or education should concern all of us. This reflects deep, structural challenges - not a short-term blip.

28 Apr

The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.

Peter Matejic@statspeter.bsky.social

How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

28 Apr

This led to the UK falling to 20th place out of the 21 high-income countries, whereas in 2011, we were in (still a pretty poor position of) 14th.

bit.lyOcto Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details

24 Apr

Join us! This is a very important role, working with some brilliant analysts (and others!)

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

📢 We're hiring a Principal Policy Adviser to lead our Work and Care policy areas! Are you a visionary leader with the arguments, policies and ideas to address the challenges underpinning poverty in the UK? We'd love to hear from you! Full job description and application: https://bit.ly/4sTq807

bbc.co.ukUK inflation rises after Iran war pushes up fuel pricesThe figures provide the first official look at the impact of the Iran war on the cost of living in the UK.

22 Apr

We may yet see a fall from 3.3% in the April data (out in May) because of falls in the April energy price cap, and falling wage growth and a fading impact from higher employer NICs causing a falling inflation rate in services. But sadly the predicted return to ~target level won't happen.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

📉 Before the conflict in the Middle East, inflation was expected to fall to close to 2% in the middle of 2026. Today's CPI figure for March shows things are moving in the opposite direction, and this is before the impact of higher energy prices hits household bills. 🧵 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

21 Apr

See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.

claude.aiLife Expectancy Calculator by Age, Sex & DeprivationCalculate your remaining life expectancy and healthy years using England ONS data. See personalized estimates based on age, sex, and IMD deprivation decile.

Want to look at variation in life expectancy for someone your age/sex? Enter your details here to find out: claude.ai/public/artif.... Enter your postcode at imd2025.co.uk/map2025/ to find out what deprivation decile where you live falls into. H/T to Chris Belfield for this.

These modelled estimates assume a lifetime in one deprivation decile. Moves between areas with different deprivation levels aren’t reflected. Notwithstanding this, gaps are very large, and the slope across deciles large too.

Less than half of the 30.7 years would be spent in good health, compared to almost three-quarters of the 39.7 years, a gap of 14 years in terms of healthy years of life.

Imagine what you can achieve in a year – the gaps we are talking about are multiple years running into decades.

And this is getting worse over time. The same boy born in 2013 would have 2 more years of healthy life (an even worse drop of 4 years for girls).

There are gaps at all ages. A man my age (45-49) has 30.7 years of life expectancy in the most deprived tenth of areas but 39.7 years in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A girl born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas can expect to live 8 years fewer than a girl born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

Gaps in healthy life expectancy are even bigger. That same boy will have 19.4 fewer years of good health compared to someone born in the least deprived tenth of areas (it’s 20.3 years for girls).

13 Apr

This is a precis of an excellent paper from @jelliott94.bsky.social, Rosie Worsdale and Ruby Blower at JRF. Do skim the thread or better still, read the paper.

Joseph Elliott@jelliott94.bsky.social

It's a bit of a myth that rents are constantly increasing faster than earnings or overall inflation - on average, they're not. So what *is* the problem of unaffordability in the private rented sector? And what does this mean for how we go about fixing it? Our take 🧵⬇️

The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25. ⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k ⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k ↔️child poverty stayed flat. More action needed! 1/7

These are the first set of results using benefits data linked to survey responses, the most significant change in methods in a generation, which JRF welcomes, but better measurement helps to accurately quantify the scale of the issue rather than improve anyone’s situation. 6/7

Numbers of children growing up in poverty should fall from April 2026 because the 2-child limit has ended, a much-needed improvement. Our projections show stats flatline after that, so more is needed to continue to drive child poverty downwards and reduce overall poverty. 7/7

Despite a welcome fall in the latest year of data, 3.1 million people have very low food security, meaning they went hungry because of a lack of money. This is still more than 40% higher than in 2021/22. 4/7

Household incomes rose between 2023/24 and 2024/25 after adjusting for inflation, both before and after housing costs across most of the income distribution. Exception was incomes in bottom decile after housing costs, which fell slightly and remain below 2021/22 levels. 5/7

5.5 million people in poverty were in a family containing a disabled person, 4 in 10 of all people in poverty. If benefits there to pay the extra costs of disability are excluded from income, this rises to almost half, with a quarter of people in those families in poverty. 2/7

Looking at the picture by country and region, poverty is highest in London and lowest in Northern Ireland. In the latest year, London and Wales have seen increases in both overall and child poverty, while the West Midlands and South West have seen reductions. 3/7

linkedin.comNext generation poverty statisticsOn the 26 March, we will see new, improved poverty statistics in Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Households Below Average Income Statistics. Here's what you need to know.

13 Mar

On 26th March, new poverty stats are out. They'll look different though, with one of the biggest ever changes in methodology. Read why this is short-term pain for long-term gain, and why the changes are a bit like this Formula 1 season: linkedin.com/pulse/next-g...

3 Mar

Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

🔔 New analysis alert! Our modelling finds that average annual household disposable incomes are projected to grow by just £40 over the course of the current parliament (from April 2024 to April 2029) after adjusting for inflation.

25 Feb

Pleased to talk through @jrf-uk.bsky.social evidence on the impact on society of the pandemic today at @ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social. We need to learn from people's insight and lived experience, and I want to thank everyone we worked with or who provided info during extraordinarily stressful times.

UK Covid-19 Inquiry@ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social

Peter Matejic (Chief Analyst, Joseph Rowntree Foundation) will give evidence to the Inquiry this afternoon.

18 Feb

Following #UKPoverty2026, more warning signs flashing. As well as describing problem of insufficient income from work, the Minimum Income Standard helps the solution as the key data source for the Real Living Wage ‪‪@livingwageuk.bsky.social‬‬. Even with falling inflation, costs continue to bite.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

More than two-thirds of households struggling to afford a decent life are in work. New research from @lborouniversity.bsky.social funded by JRF, sets out the scale of the problem. A 🧵

reddit.comFrom the ukpolitics community on RedditExplore this post and more from the ukpolitics community

31 Jan

Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

Want to find out more about #UKPoverty2026? Has a stat, the methodology or something else grabbed your attention? On Wed 4th Feb from 12-2pm, we'll be hosting an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Reddit with our analysis team. Questions open on Monday. www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics...

jrf.org.ukUK Poverty 2026 launch webinarJoin the UK Poverty 2026 launch webinar to hear about all the findings in our flagship report. Thursday 29 January 2026, 10.30am–12pm

29 Jan

You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

❌ ‘The longer we accept this as normal, the greater the damage it does’ Our Chief Analyst @statspeter.bsky.social gives an overview of the numbers in #UKPoverty2026 of children, working-age adults and pensioners living in poverty, and what the lack of progress means for society 🔽

27 Jan

One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

🗣️ “Nothing’s changed? Everything’s changed. It’s worse.” We were privileged to work alongside the Grassroots Poverty Action Group (GPAG) on the foreword of our #UKPoverty2026 report that launched this morning. They also shared their reflections on they key findings in this impactful video ⬇️

27 Jan

This was an enormous amount of work from folk across @jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

Poverty is deepening. 🔎 Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning. People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people. This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.

Peter Matejic reposted

Sam Tims

@sam-tims.bsky.social

18 Dec 2025

New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

5 Dec 2025

"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social

Lifting more than half a million children out of poverty by the end of the parliament - now that's the government putting its money where its mouth is on its manifesto commitment to reduce child poverty. More to do, but a good foundation to build from.

27 Nov 2025

Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.

Iain Porter@iainkporter.bsky.social

Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3

27 Nov 2025

All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)

26 Nov 2025

Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf-uk.bsky.social

🏘️ The average household will now be £850 worse off in 2029-30 than 2024-25. Households in the highest third of incomes face the biggest fall in living standards, declining by 2.9% or £2,230 on average. Those in the middle-income third (0.9% or £300) will see a smaller fall.

26 Nov 2025

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

26 Nov 2025

See gov.uk/government/p... for the DWP analysis and look out for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis on overall living standards shortly, showing there is more to do to tackle this more broadly.

gov.ukgov.uk