Andrew Gelman et al. (@statmodeling.bsky.social)

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

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Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Six questions about political polarization and my responses statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/27/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Six questions about political polarization and my responses | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

22h

MRP at NYT statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/26/m...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu MRP at NYT | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

22h

One-year election analytics fellowship at the New York Times statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/26/o...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu One-year election analytics fellowship at the New York Times | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Skepticism about the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/26/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Skepticism about the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

World’s dumbest AI spam just dropped statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/25/w...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu World’s dumbest AI spam just dropped | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Ideological bias in “Ideological bias in the production of research findings” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/24/i...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Ideological bias in “Ideological bias in the production of research findings” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

A big problem with conventional experimentation or A/B testing is that the treatment effect can vary over time and it can depend on the entire history of the treatment. Usual comparisons miss this point. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/23/a...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu A big problem with conventional experimentation or A/B testing is that the treatment effect can vary over time and it can depend on the entire history of the treatment. Usual comparisons miss this p...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/22/h...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

My exchange with Yann LeCun about killer robots statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/21/f...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu My exchange with Yann LeCun about killer robots | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Real political reporters use data journalism techniques to catch fakers at “Wedgewood Polls” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/20/l...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Real political reporters use data journalism techniques to catch fakers at “Wedgewood Polls” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Survey Statistics: textbooks adding non-probability sampling chapters statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/20/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey Statistics: textbooks adding non-probability sampling chapters | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

CmdStanR 1.0 release candidate is now available! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/20/c...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu CmdStanR 1.0 release candidate is now available! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

“In the belly of the whale: Portraits from a fractured Israel” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/19/i...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu “In the belly of the whale: Portraits from a fractured Israel” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

“If you decide to write about this paper in your blog, please don’t mention my name. It is important to me to remain anonymous. . . . exposure might harm me or my students.” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/19/t...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu “If you decide to write about this paper in your blog, please don’t mention my name. It is important to me to remain anonymous. . . . exposure might harm me or my students.” | Statistical Modeling, C...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

“Death and Taxes: Taking Causal Inference into the Real World” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/18/d...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu “Death and Taxes: Taking Causal Inference into the Real World” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

“I write to seek your help and advice regarding a published article that my group and I believe is invalid and should be corrected or retracted.” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/18/5...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu “I write to seek your help and advice regarding a published article that my group and I believe is invalid and should be corrected or retracted.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Why do we like wind chimes? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/17/w...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Why do we like wind chimes? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Seeking to interview social scientists experimenting with LLM simulations of opinions or behavior statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/16/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Seeking to interview social scientists experimenting with LLM simulations of opinions or behavior | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

How surprising is it that LeBron averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in his career but never had one game where he had 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/16/h...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu How surprising is it that LeBron averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in his career but never had one game where he had 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists? | Statistical Modeling, Causal I...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Frustration when authors dodge criticism statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/15/f...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Frustration when authors dodge criticism | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Why do almost all the cell phone numbers have no 0’s or 1’s? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/14/w...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Why do almost all the cell phone numbers have no 0’s or 1’s? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

OK, here’s a new scam. But I can’t figure out how it’s supposed to work. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/13/o...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu OK, here’s a new scam. But I can’t figure out how it’s supposed to work. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Survey Statistics: favorite textbooks ? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/13/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey Statistics: favorite textbooks ? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

The head and the heart statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/13/t...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu The head and the heart | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

JAMA rules of engagement on causal language statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/12/j...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu JAMA rules of engagement on causal language | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Columbia University says, “We believe in difficult conversations at Columbia—in a broad embrace of freedom of expression. It’s in our DNA.” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/11/c...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Columbia University says, “We believe in difficult conversations at Columbia—in a broad embrace of freedom of expression. It’s in our DNA.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Scienc...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

The problem is noise, not N: why increasing the sample size isn’t all that. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/10/t...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu The problem is noise, not N: why increasing the sample size isn’t all that. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Digital twins version 2.0: The skeptics speak up statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/09/d...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Digital twins version 2.0: The skeptics speak up | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Thinking more seriously about the design of exploratory studies: A manifesto statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/09/t...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Thinking more seriously about the design of exploratory studies: A manifesto | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Getting better causal inferences by using more information (my talk at Stanford this coming Wed) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/08/g...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Getting better causal inferences by using more information (my talk at Stanford this coming Wed) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

What’s the deal with the RMET (“the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test”)? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/08/w...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu What’s the deal with the RMET (“the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test”)? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Survey Statistics: 2 different uses of simulated data statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/06/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey Statistics: 2 different uses of simulated data | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Our continuing struggles with the Monster model statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/07/o...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Our continuing struggles with the Monster model | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Hey—we’re hiring two postdocs! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/06/h...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Hey—we’re hiring two postdocs! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Bayesian Workflow code is at the Bayesian Workflow website! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/05/b...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Bayesian Workflow code is at the Bayesian Workflow website! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

OK, this is just weird (from Alaska Airlines) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/05/o...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.eduOK, this is just weird (from Alaska Airlines) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceSo . . . they’re willing to charge me $83 for a middle seat that doesn’t recline?? I don’t get that strategy. Maybe the next item is $82 for a middle seat that doesn’t recline and is covered with a sticky mess, or $81 for a middle seat that doesn’t recline where the tray table doesn’t work?

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

A plan to replicate the Loftus and Palmer (1974) experiment on false memories statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/04/a...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu A plan to replicate the Loftus and Palmer (1974) experiment on false memories | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Using the computer to p-hack . . . I’d rather use it to fit multilevel models. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/03/u...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Using the computer to p-hack . . . I’d rather use it to fit multilevel models. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

If you were planning to send me a chatbot-written email or post a chatbot-written comment, just send or post your prompt. That’s enough. You can keep the slop to yourself. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/02/i...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu If you were planning to send me a chatbot-written email or post a chatbot-written comment, just send or post your prompt. That’s enough. You can keep the slop to yourself. | Statistical Modeling, C...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Nicholas Goddamn Roerich statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/02/n...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Nicholas Goddamn Roerich | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

When are Causal Inference Methods Needed to Answer Causal Questions? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/01/w...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu When are Causal Inference Methods Needed to Answer Causal Questions? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Bell-bottom jeans, disco, gas shortages, and ESP statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/10/01/b...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Bell-bottom jeans, disco, gas shortages, and ESP | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Prior distributions, partial pooling, and reference sets (Bayesians are frequentists) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/30/p...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Prior distributions, partial pooling, and reference sets (Bayesians are frequentists) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Survey Statistics: ANOVA follow-up statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/29/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey Statistics: ANOVA follow-up | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Is it true that “AI Chooses Nuclear Option in 95% of War Simulations”? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/29/a...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Is it true that “AI Chooses Nuclear Option in 95% of War Simulations”? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

A nonlinear effect plus measurement error in x becomes close to linear: A simulation study statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/28/a...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu A nonlinear effect plus measurement error in x becomes close to linear: A simulation study | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Survey of academic bureaucracy statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/27/s...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Survey of academic bureaucracy | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

I guess this is what they mean when they talk about “reactionary centrism”: Corruption of government facilitated by enablers in intellectual society statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/27/c...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu I guess this is what they mean when they talk about “reactionary centrism”: Corruption of government facilitated by enablers in intellectual society | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Soc...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

As a society, we are pretty good at transferring money to political pundits, but we’re not very good at nurturing the human capital they would need to correct their own mistakes. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/26/a...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu As a society, we are pretty good at transferring money to political pundits, but we’re not very good at nurturing the human capital they would need to correct their own mistakes. | Statistical Modeli...

Andrew Gelman et al.

@statmodeling.bsky.social

Postdoc hiring season at Flatiron statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/09/25/p...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Postdoc hiring season at Flatiron | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science