Travis

Travis

@someforeignfield.bsky.social

USAID, refugee resettlement, and humanitarian assistance veteran. Missile and tank weirdo, posts stuff about missiles, the Middle East, and why it matters at https://substack.com/@someforeignfield

3.2K followers221 following5K posts

We once again encounter the difference between Bluesky Bidenism (yelling "fuck" at Netanyahu, etc) with Actually Existing Bidenism (he enthusiastically and actively participated in the genocide of the Palestinian people and his former staff love what Trumps doing rn)

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I'm grieving the deaths of the Russian soldiers who died today in Donetsk, and praying for the speedy recovery of those injured. I've spoken out loudly this week against Russia's occupation of Crimea and Donetsk/Luhansk, but violence is not the path to ending it, or achieving safety, freedom, and p

All the media "leaks" etc of Israel and US planning 3 days of "intense strikes" to persuade Iran to negotiate the nuclear program... again... what are we doing here

Travis@someforeignfield.bsky.social

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Gamers I'm gonna need y'all to understand that Jared Kushner and Mohammad bin Salman just killed this. If Saudi Arabia hadn't launched 10 Storm Shadow missiles at Sanaa airport in July, you'd get to play an actually good Mass Effect game.

Jason Schreier@jasonschreier.bsky.social

Can confirm that this is a real trailer of the Mass Effect game that BioWare was developing up until its closure yesterday www.reddit.com/r/masseffect...

"Sovereignty will become substantive when the government can enforce its decisions against armed actors who currently claim the privileges of the state while refusing its discipline." Yeah I bet you weren't too pleased about the one time the Iraqi government did that for real, back in 2017...

iirc Kurdish militant groups in northern Iraq have been hit 800+ times since Feb '26. Mossad's Kurdish gambit accomplished nothing but giving the Artesh something to hit with Fath 250 SRBMs. And allegedly cross-border raids by IRGC commandos.

Trump about to turn Texas blue by restarting the Iran war days before the midterms. Willfully throwing our own elections in order to help Netanyahu win his own election - which he inevitably will anyway due to the opposition's unwillingness to work with Arab parties. Insane.

I'd like to think Dems winning the midterms in a landslide will mean anything when it comes to stopping this insane, insane, insane illegal war but it probably won't.

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social

BREAKING: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Iran is “once again trying to develop nuclear bombs,” adding that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime.” Netanyahu says he has instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies accordingly.

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Any general taking money on the sly is likely either dead or, at this point, aware that the Big Mutiny isnt happening. If it didn't happen in June '25 or January '26, it's exceedingly unlikely to happen now.

I have no doubt that renewed Israeli-American bombing of iran can cause a lot of damage, and kill a lot of people. They can achieve tactical success akin to the first days of June '25 or Feb '26. But to what end?

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social

BREAKING: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Iran is “once again trying to develop nuclear bombs,” adding that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime.” Netanyahu says he has instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies accordingly.

View full thread

Internally, the Regime remains on shaky ground. The economic strain the population is under is catastrophic. But that is unlikely - especially in the near term - to translate to a mass uprising against the regime amidst Israeli bombs.

June 2025 burned most of Israels sabotage assets (to great, if one-time) success. January 2026 burned yet more assets, and the Kurdish gambit was a complete non-starter. The Baloch militant movement is serious but not a threat to the state as a whole.

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social

BREAKING: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Iran is “once again trying to develop nuclear bombs,” adding that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime.” Netanyahu says he has instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies accordingly.

View full thread

Manufacturing of new missiles is probably impacted "seriously" but is unlikely to be totally destroyed. Liquid fuel missiles are already largely built underground, with solid fuel construction also slowly moving underground as they figure out safer fuel mixing methods

Irans air defense is also severely degraded, but not destroyed. All they really need is the ability to consistently endanger hostile aircraft that enter Iranian territory. They retain that, and are unlikely to ever fully lose it. On a long enough timeline they will shoot down another plane.

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social

BREAKING: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Iran is “once again trying to develop nuclear bombs,” adding that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime.” Netanyahu says he has instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies accordingly.

View full thread

Iran's missile and drone force appear to have weathered the storm more or less intact. The interior of their missile bases are unharmed, the entrances dug out, and new entrances and base expansions are going forward at a rapid pace

Their missile stockpile remains substantial, even if everyone disagrees on the specifics. Most American analysis seems to claim they have only fired or lost ~30% of pre-war missile capacity.

Writing a Big Article about the Israeli-American war on Iran and at this point it seems a Round 3 of some kind is inevitable. But I just really have to question how this could be anything beyond a few days of aura farming strikes that kill a bunch of people for no reason, then back to square one.

Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social

BREAKING: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Iran is “once again trying to develop nuclear bombs,” adding that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime.” Netanyahu says he has instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies accordingly.

It seems very likely that neither the US nor Israel possess the stand-off weapon capacity to match the scale of their strikes in early 2026, meaning sustained strikes would require risky overflight of Iranian territory. The F-15E shootdown was a big reason the full scale war ended when it did.

Not to mention the interceptor situation. The last few months of conflict in Yemen have further drained the collective Patriot and THAAD stockpile. Every base in the region is substantially more vulnerable than in Februrary/March

Travis reposted

Replying to @someforeignfield.bsky.social

wait sorry i forgot there are no US bases in Jordan. In a recent, completely unprovoked, iranian assault on the territorial sovereignty of the Hashemite Kingdom, several US military assets (located there exclusively at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah bin Hussein) which were purely defens

Zelensky claims the US is only delivering approximately a dozen Patriot interceptors per month, while in previously they received about 50 per month. In a recent Iranian missile strike on a US base in Jordan, the US fired approx 70 Patriot interceptors and 12 THAAD interceptors alone.

kyivindependent.comUS delaying Patriot missiles already paid for under NATO initiative, Zelensky saysZelensky has appealed to Washington repeatedly, making the case for additional Patriot missiles as Russia intensifies strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
Travis@someforeignfield.bsky.social

This Iranian missile barrage apparently required about 70 Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles to blunt the impact.

wait sorry i forgot there are no US bases in Jordan. In a recent, completely unprovoked, iranian assault on the territorial sovereignty of the Hashemite Kingdom, several US military assets (located there exclusively at the invitation of His Majesty King Abdullah bin Hussein) which were purely defens

Zelensky claims the US is only delivering approximately a dozen Patriot interceptors per month, while in previously they received about 50 per month. In a recent Iranian missile strike on a US base in Jordan, the US fired approx 70 Patriot interceptors and 12 THAAD interceptors alone.

kyivindependent.comUS delaying Patriot missiles already paid for under NATO initiative, Zelensky saysZelensky has appealed to Washington repeatedly, making the case for additional Patriot missiles as Russia intensifies strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
Travis@someforeignfield.bsky.social

This Iranian missile barrage apparently required about 70 Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles to blunt the impact.

Lol

ProPublica@propublica.org

We’re back with our second story about how Trump’s purge of the FBI killed a sweeping bribery probe in D.C. This time, we take you to South Carolina, where two powerful politicians escaped scrutiny: Sen. Lindsey Graham and Rep. James Clyburn. THREAD 👇

Early in the war, an IRIAF Yak-130 jet trainer was shot down by an Israeli F-35I over the mountains north of Tehran. Apparently, the Iranian pilot successfully ejected and was found in the snowy mountains hours later by hikers.

Insane that the IRIAF is now doing the iconic Chuck Yeager F-104 crash scene from The Right Stuff. They're aviationmogging the absolute fuck out of us.

It's funny because "centrism now, centrism tomorrow, centrism forever" is a far more liberal/progressive version of the infamous George Wallace quote in support of Jim Crow segregation than the actual appropriation of the quote by Hakeem Jeffries

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Ironically Israel's Plan B (which was always their real Plan A) succeeded in dragging the US in to do the hard work but ironically also allowed Iran to enact it's actual Plan A: closing the Strait and dismantling Gulf oil infrastructure. Israel's Plan A allowed Iran's Plan A to work. Oops!

Travis@someforeignfield.bsky.social

Israel's Plan B was dragging the U.S. into the war to do the real hard work for them. After all, the Israeli air force is undoubtedly quite capable but the U.S. Air Force and Navy have far more assets available. This plan also failed, with only a token strike on nuclear facilities.

Re-upping this in light of Netanyahu's electioneering via threats of renewed war against Iran.

Travis@someforeignfield.bsky.social

The high water mark of Israeli power occurred between September 2024 and June 2025. The pager attacks in Lebanon in September 2024 and the attempted overthrow of the IRI system in June 2025 represented their attempts to destroy their primary rivals through hybrid military-terroristic attacks.