Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)

Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)

@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough. http://cookpolitical.com/about/staff/david-wasserman (Unofficial bot maintained by @manos.lol)

29.9K followers7 following747 posts

Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Think back to 2006, last midterm w/ an unpopular war/GOP president. Where were the biggest House upsets? Places like IN, IA, KS, MN (Tim Walz!), NH, OH, WI, Upstate NY. That's why I think the Midwest & places w/ lots of secular white voters are especially ripe for surprises.

Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

New @CookPolitical: Amid ad uproar, #OHGOV moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: www.cookpolitical.com/…

cookpolitical.comAmid Ad Uproar, Ohio Governor’s Race Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat | Cook Political ReportThe trajectory of Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds in the Ohio governor’s race has been clear to us for the last few weeks. But the campaign’s decision this week to air a deeply personal attack ad against...
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.

x.comNathaniel Reed (@ReedReports)👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district): Blake Gendebien (D) 46% Anthony Constantino (R) 42% Undecided 8% Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest anti-Trump swings.

x.comNathaniel Reed (@ReedReports)👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district): Blake Gendebien (D) 46% Anthony Constantino (R) 42% Undecided 8% Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

New @CookPolitical: Dems inch closer to Senate majority as three races move in their favor. #KSSEN: Lean R to Toss Up #NHSEN: Toss Up to Lean D #NCSEN: Lean D to Likely D Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: www.cookpolitical.com/…

cookpolitical.comA Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races...Four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate map is shifting further in Democrats’ favor — and with it, their odds of winning back the majority.While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in...
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems: #GASEN: Lean D to Likely D #KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R #SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: www.cookpolitical.com/…

cookpolitical.comThe Fight for the Senate Is a True Toss Up; Three Races Shift Toward Democrats | Cook Political...With just under six weeks until Election Day, control of the Senate is on a knife’s edge as the handful of key races that will decide the majority remain within the margin of error.
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

NEW @CookPolitical: our battleground district poll shows a seven point swing to Democrats in the most competitive House races vs. 2024, putting them in excellent position to win the House majority. Full analysis by @Amyewalter and Carrie Dann: www.cookpolitical.com/…

cookpolitical.comNew Battleground District Poll Shows Democrats Up, Voters Eager for Sweeping Change | Cook Politi...A new Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House districts in the country finds Democrats in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall. It also finds an...
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

RT @amyewalter:

x.comAmy Walter (@amyewalter)In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future. https://t.co/pGVQqLm9o3
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Massive win for Dems, as SCOTUS blocks Missouri GOP’s 7R-1D gerrymander. #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) goes from doomed to safe, and Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R) #MO02 now worth keeping an eye on too.

x.comMichael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli)BREAKING: The Supreme Court pauses a federal district court order that directed Missouri to use a gerrymandered 7R-1D map for this year’s midterms. The midterms instead will be conducted under the old 6R-2D map. No noted dissents. https://t.co/RzOLB03stc
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Before Dems get carried away celebrating the Missouri redistricting ruling, important to keep in mind SCOTUS/state courts would likely need to greenlight an entirely new election calendar w/ 60 days left before 11/3. No guarantees here.

x.comNathaniel Rakich (@baseballot)If Missouri does have to use the 6-2 map, that’s fundamentally incompatible with the primaries, which were conducted under the 7-1 map. Easiest solution would probably be to hold jungle primaries on Nov. 3, with runoffs at a later date. Parties could also just appoint nominees.
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Excited to join @Morning_Joe in a few moments to discuss the new @CookPolitical Partisan Voting Index (PVI). But, viewer discretion: yesterday, my new car's wild rear power liftgate put a huge gash in my forehead, so I'm welcoming any last-minute makeup tips.

Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

New @CookPolitical: Far-left candidates are winning Dem primaries, but not in most of the races that will decide the House majority. Analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/…

cookpolitical.comFar-Left Candidates Are Winning Primaries — But Not in the Races That Will Decide the House...Backlash against the party establishment has bolstered left-wing candidates from New York to Colorado — and progressives’ winning streak hasn't been exclusively confined to deep blue urban districts....
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

RT @smerconish:

xcancel.comMichael Smerconish (@smerconish)THE MINGLE PROJECT: CNN SPECIAL PREMIERING TODAY AT 9 AM & 1 PM ET on CNN. Watch Here ▶ https://t.co/FRJYx72VmZ What if America's biggest problem isn't politics—it's isolation? Michael Smerconish brings together leading thinkers, researchers, physicians, and social commentators to examine America's loneliness epidemic, growing polarization, and the disappearance of the shared experiences that once connected us. Drawing on decades of research and conversations with some of the nation's leading thinkers—including Robert Putnam @RobertDPutnam, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, David Wasserman @Redistrict, Scott Galloway @profgalloway, Debra Soh @DrDebraSoh, Tami Benton, and Ezekiel Emanuel @ZekeEmanuel — this special examines why Americans increasingly live, work, socialize, and even think apart from one another. The conversation starts now. Join us on YouTube.
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

Enormous setback for Dems as VA Supreme Court strikes down the referendum vote and therefore Dems’ 10D-1R gerrymander. Now best Dems can hope for is to pick up two seats under current map, not four.

xcancel.comBrandon Jarvis (@Jaaavis)“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void. For this reason, the congressional district maps issued by this Court in 2021 pursuant to Article II, Section 6-A of the Constitution of Virginia remain the governing maps for the upcoming 2026 congressional elections.”
Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot

It's nearly impossible to disentangle race and partisanship in the South, which is why this ruling could have such apocalyptic consequences for Black representation across the Deep South (more likely in '28 than '26).

xcancel.comZachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini)Not a legal expert, but to my plain reading this is the passage in the ruling that seems most concerning for the future strength of Section 2, and likely why Elena Kagan was so alarmed in dissent. The key question going forward: can plaintiffs produce evidence for any current Black-majority Southern district showing that racially polarized voting exists in a way that cannot simply be explained by party affiliation?