Ben Baldwin

Ben Baldwin

@rbsdm.com

@nfl4th.com // @nflverse.com // https://www.nflfastr.com/ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/author/ben-baldwin/

39.6K followers270 following1.2K posts

Excuse me

NFL 4th Down Bot@nfl4th.com

---> BAL (10) @ CLE (10) <--- BAL has 4th & 2 at the BAL 46, Q4 02:08 Recommendation (YOU BETTER DO THIS): 👉 Go for it (+12 WP) Actual play: 🚨 (Run formation) PENALTY on BLT, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 46 - No Play.

Bot did not account for Stafford pick-6 factor

NFL 4th Down Bot@nfl4th.com

---> LA (19) @ DEN (16) <--- DEN has 4th & 1 at the DEN 39, Q4 07:10 Recommendation (YOU BETTER DO THIS): 👉 Go for it (+10 WP) Actual play: 🏈🦵 J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to LA 6, Center-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

Imagining me telling my 2013 self that Marcus Mariota would still be tormenting me 13 years later

1. Wow this thing still works. I am moderately shocked 2. Mike!!!!!!!!!!

NFL 4th Down Bot@nfl4th.com

---> NE (0) @ SEA (0) <--- SEA has 4th & 1 at the SEA 30, Q1 04:42 Recommendation (STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+3.5 WP) Actual play: 🏈🦵 M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

Haven't been to San Francisco in quite some time and had sort of bought into the "city in decline" stuff you see all over the place online but nope, that's all wrong. Still an amazing city (especially in August)

Tremendous respect to the guy wearing a "Let Russ Cook" shirt while strolling down the Pacific Beach boardwalk last week

9 year old has become obsessed with Magic the Gathering (which is awesome) but we haven't found a single other kid at his school who plays. What is going on with America's youth?

As an old person, pregame coverage talking about Messi like it's a miracle he can still walk given how old he is while he's still in his 30s is killing me

Also enjoy how half the people on this Telemundo broadcast have Argentinian accents. I wonder who they might be rooting for

Ben Baldwin reposted

COMING SOON: “12 As One: Mike Macdonald, the Seattle Seahawks & the making of a Super Bowl champion” My 2nd Seahawks book chronicles the on-field brilliance & special bonds that brought Seattle a title — told thru a unique lens! Available 9/1/2026! Pre-order NOW on Amazon! a.co/d/006NWnK7

Added a "weighted EPA" feature to the website. This downweights garbage time and low predictive value value events (interceptions, fumbles), among other things. In the large sample of a full season it doesn't change much for most teams, but hopefully still useful!

I was about to ask why the Dolphins are expected to be so bad but then I looked at their WR depth chart

Seth Walder@sethwalder.bsky.social

ESPN's Football Power Index is out! The Rams are No. 1, the Seahawks are No. 4 and the Patriots are...No. 14! Projections, most likely Super Bowl matchups and more in today's story: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Relative to ESPN, my (probably bad) model is higher on NE and JAX, lower on SF and LAC. Otherwise very similar

I am glad that it was not the Seahawks that did this

Tom Pelissero@tompelissero.bsky.social

Blockbuster! The Browns are finalizing a trade sending superstar Myles Garrett to the Rams, sources tell Adam Schefter, @rapsheet.bsky.social and me. Cleveland is expected to receive two-time Pro Bowl edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick and additional compensation.

Been working on vibe coding NFL team strengths using modified EPA per play and am happy to report that the best team in the NFL during the 2025 season was the Seattle Seahawks People forget that

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Randon NFL thoughts: -I still have no idea if the Bears were good in 2025. They have a huge range of outcomes for 2026 -This thing is probably too low on the Chiefs -Probably too high on the Eagles? -Maybe the Chargers will be good -Hopefully the Seahawks' offense post-Kubiak is still good

Top 10 teams by end-of-season rating since 2002. Turns out it's hard to make a model that doesn't have the 2025 Seahawks as an all-time team

Been working on vibe coding NFL team strengths using modified EPA per play and am happy to report that the best team in the NFL during the 2025 season was the Seattle Seahawks People forget that

What the heck are the responses to this. It's a completely different world out there

Jay 🦋@jay.bsky.team

Bluesky is made with AI, the engineers and even some non-engineers use Claude code