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The early voting blog is updated. More mail may be coming, but Dems have added 2,000 ballots to their lead from Sunday -- it's now 22,500, or 5.1 percent. GOP skittishness must be growing. Almost Groundhog Day-like sameness to the daily numbers. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Time to start modeling what gov needs to do with remaining ballots to survive. He needs to cut GOP ballot deficit in Clark by half and not lose Washoe by too much. Uphill but not impossible. Other Repubs? Not so sure. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 1963, a nuclear bomb was detonated about 28 miles from Fallon. A 12 kt bomb exploded at a depth of 1,204 ft. NV officials said “exposure to humans is unlikely.” Days left of in-person early voting: 5 Days 'til general: 8

The early voting blog is updated! Dem lead in NV above 20,000 ballots and above 5 percent. Five days of in-person early voting left and after a dominant D weekend, Republicans need it to turn around or a wave is coming. Lots of data and charts: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! This was a bad weekend for Republicans in Nevada, with Dems increasing their ballot lead by 50 percent from Friday. It's 19,400, or just under 5 points. A blue wave is building, but will it come ashore next week? thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Unless you have turned off your TVs and the Internet, you have seen some of the Team Lombardo ads about the AG's role in pardons. Our Tabitha Mueller took a deep dive to separate fact from fiction on a pervasive issue that surfaced in the closing weeks. thenevadaindependent.com/article/is-m...

The early voting blog is updated! Mail is more than 60% of the turnout and Dems are winning it by more than 10 points while Rs have a 4-point lead in in-person. What happens if that continues or shrinks? I do projections! Ds+25K-30K after Friday? thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! With help from fellow data obsessives @G_BAILOR and @ErikJimenezNV, a look at congressional and legislative races. Still looks difficult for Dems in CD2, but Dem CDs look safer and Carson City carnage possible for GOP. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated. It continues to look a lot like 2022, when Dems did well in NV except for the minor thing of losing the gov's race. But this time Trump is president and numbers are not good for GOP. Rather be a D than an R right now. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

I'll have an early voting blog post up in a bit, but: On a day Rs expected to do well, Ds had their biggest gain Saturday. The current numbers: D+16,864, or 4.5%. Rurals closed today, so Rs will need to do well in urban Nevada to stanch the bleeding. Post coming...

The early voting blog is updated! As @G_BAILOR has found -- I steal his research with credit -- Dems looking strong in their 3 CDs while they still have an uphill climb in CD2. If turnout patterns don't change, Ds could have an Assembly supermajority. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! As Week 2 of in-person early voting begins, signs are ominous right now for NV Republicans. The election isn't held today, but if it were, there would be a blue wave. I show you why in this post, and more data later. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voing blog is updated! Message: Don't sleep on Clark mail. I did, so I missed the late-night dump that allowed Dems to win the day. Raw ballot lead is now: D+13,000 Electorate is D+3.8 One week of in-person early voting in the books. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! The Rs had a good day, it's now a D+3.5 electorate and raw ballot lead is 11,500. You'd still rather be Ds than Rs right now, but the Rs stopped the bleeding for now. Looking a LOT like 2022. I'll you more in the AM. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Sharing some data from the ever-reliable @ErikJimenezNV but has been confirmed by others extracting this: Inveterate Dem voters are turning out in greater numbers than inveterate Rs so far. Hope for Rs on Nov. 3? thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Tons of data and charts, perspective and models, but distilled: Mail: D+16,675 (9.4 points) Early in-person: R+5,022 (4.7 points) Totals: D+11,653 (4.1 points) Turnout: 284,836, or just under 14% D+4.5 electorate. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Dems statewide lead up to 11,300, or 4.5 percent. 12 percent of active voters have cast ballots. About a quarter of the vote is in. Day 6 of 14 in-person early voting today! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Dem lead above 10,000 ballots, or about 4 percent. I'd guess about a quarter of vote is in and Rs better hope they are winning indies, which is a longshot this year. Long way to go but I have many data points for you: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Where can you see four potential presidential candidates, a world-renowned AI expert and panels with stellar guests on data centers, prediction markets, election security and more? At IndyFest, of course! Tomorrow! Come or watch on the livestream. thenevadaindependent.com/event/indyfe...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 2008, Sarah Palin spoke in Henderson. Get this: She criticized Obama’s response to Russia moving into Georgia, predicted it would invite Putin to invade Ukraine. Days left of in-person early voting: 10 Days 'til general: 13

The early voting blog is updated! Dems won Tuesday in NV (barely) and lead by 4.4 points. Just under a fifth of the total vote is in, and I would guess Rs are nervous. What does it all mean? All the data you could ever want and more, and more to come! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Early voting blog is updated! 3 PM dump -- Rs doing well so far today, reducing D lead by 1,000, praying a Clark mail dump is not in their near-future. A look at congressional districts, too, and Washoe-rural breakdown in district Dems have never won. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! With a decent number of Nevada votes in, I have created charts for all of you who want to track granular turnout: How many votes have been cast, how many are left, D or R leads by county and region. You are welcome! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 2008, Bill Clinton stumped in Elko (!) and Reno for Barack Obama's WH campaign. Just 10 months earlier, he had spoken in same Reno venue on his wife's behalf. Days left of in-person early voting: 11 Days 'til general: 14

The early voting blog is updated! Day 4 of 14 in-person early voting days is upon us and Dems lead in NV by 5.5 percentage points. About 15 percent of the total vote is in. Long way to go, but this is a good mix so far for Dems. Could come down to indies! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Big Republican gains offset late in day by large Clark County mail wins by Dems. Rs still gained just under 400 votes, but Ds have nearly 5 percentage point lead statewide. Still early. Lots of data, gov race model: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Midday update shows 125K ballots in, Dem statewide lead dipped to 5 percent as rurals come in and Rs winning all three regions in in-person voting today. A lot of data in here because I love you all: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 1983, defying regents, UNR students published the first edition of The Student Record. Editors hid their identities, omitted bylines. It's now the Sagebrush. Days left of in-person early voting: 12 Days 'til general: 15

The early voting blog is updated! A couple thousand ballots came in after my last post and Dems added to their lead -- now nearly 7 percentage points statewide. I think about 10 percent of the vote is in now. Washoe looks bluer, Rs need rural help. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! No rural ballots today so Dems stretched their lead, continue to overperform in in-person early voting. Dems have a 6.3 percent ballot lead statewide with about 10 percent of the total vote in. Lots of data/charts! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Welcome to Day 2 of in-person early voting. The Dems have about a 5 percent statewide lead -- 4,500 ballots. Rs are in the game so far because of rural landslides. Details here: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Early voting blog is updated! Overperformance by Ds in Clark early voting compared to '22 , while they are ahead in Clark mail by double digits. Urban NV strong for Ds, Rs need rural landslides to continue. Just one day. Let's see if trend develops. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is up! Very close statewide. I have those numbers and a new governor's race model just for you! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! In-person early voting starts today and continues for two weeks. About 4 percent of the vote is in, Dems have slight lead. I have reminded everyone of historical baselines and what to watch for: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Not much change in ballots -- we will be at 50,000 pretty soon -- but tomorrow early voting starts, so I have historical charts and graphs for your data-devouring pleasure. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Not many new ballots, Ds still w/small lead, but expecting deluge of ballots to give us better idea when in-person early voting starts tomorrow. I'm also unveiling my dynamic projection model soon. Contain your excitement! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 1992, Bryce Harper was born in Las Vegas. At 19, he was on the Nationals; now he's on the Phillies. He also has nearly 400 HRs. HOF credentials? Oh yes. He matters. Days 'til early voting: 1 Days 'til general: 18

Early voting blog updated! Bottom line: Rs should be happy about VERY EARLY Clark numbers and Ds should be happy w/VERY EARLY CD2 numbers. 30K ballots, Dems with 5% lead statewide, probably still under 3 percent of the vote in because it is VERY EARLY. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Early voting blog update coming. Latest dump doubled amount of ballots in the state file, now at 30,000. Ds and Rs about even in the latest 15K-plus dump. Dems statewide lead is now 38 percent to 33 percent. Rs holding their own in populous Clark. Detailed post coming soon.

The early voting blog is up! Two days before in-person early voting juices turnout, still only 14,500 ballots in. Last batch of 700 was pretty even between Ds and Rs. Ds have statewide lead, but sample too small to know how wavy it might get -- or not. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 1993, Circus Circus Enterprises opened the Luxor on the Strip. The $375 million pyramid-shaped resort has a large sphinx outside. Inclinators take guests to rooms. Days 'til early voting: 2 Days 'til general: 19

The early voting blog is updated! First relatively sizable bunch of ballots -- 7,300 -- in afternoon dump to state SOS file. that doubles what we had before. Dems still have lead, but GOP holding its own in Clark in mail for now. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

R&R has been a staple here in Vegas for the 42 years I have been here and well before that. Some of the best people I know have worked there and still work there. This merger is some story, via Tabitha Mueller and Howard Stutz.

The early voting blog is updated! About 6,500 ballots accepted by SOS so far, so let me be clear: There are no trends yet except for my irritation with those who say there are trends. That is consistent. But I do have charts. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Quick early morning update for the early voting blog -- more extensive post later: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Big numbers coming this weekend as in-person early voting begins, so still small mail ballot numbers so far -- 900 in latest update. Mail will pick up, too, and we will see if any trends are developing. Wave or no wave? thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The early voting blog is updated! Still relatively few ballots have been returned, probably a half-percent or less of total for the election. But you want numbers? I have numbers! thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

Good morning from The #WeMatter State. On this date in 2008, Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal died in Florida at 79. Rosenthal was a mob-associated fixture in Vegas. A character inspired by him was played by Robert DeNiro in "Casino." Days 'til early voting: 4 Days 'til general: 21

The early voting blog is updated! 1,500 new ballots this afternoon, so a 50 percent increase in total accepted. Repubs and Dems about even in this drop. I expect the ballot numbers to start getting bigger and bigger. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...

The @TheNVIndy Judicial Race Voter Guide is up! The definitive look at the bios and backgrounds -- and much more -- of judges and lawyers running to be judges. We also assembled an expert panel to, ahem, judge candidates. thenevadaindependent.com/elections/20...