pete (goblin time)

pete (goblin time)

@ptmoria.com

rot

265 followers 137 following5K posts

pete (goblin time)

I am optimistic but let’s not spike the football on AES, who has not yet won and has never cast a legislative vote in his life

lastpositivist.bsky.social@lastpositivist.bsky.social

In fact I will say the Earnest and Pious Charismatic Ethnic Minority political figure (AOC, Mamdani, El-Sayed) has been a pretty good bet for the American left so far, whereas the Disaffected Gruff White Guy Showcasing True Masculinity (Fetterman, Platner) has been a worse bet. Just an observation.

pete (goblin time)

The sooner the Brewers wrap this thing up the sooner the Astros can announce Kleine as the new GM right, right guys

pete (goblin time)

watching this, I wonder if the upcoming check swing rule change (parallel to opposite baseline) is going to be a much bigger deal than I had supposed

Eephus Tosser@eephustosser.bsky.social

All the check swing discourse has me thinking about this old sequence of pitches by Sandy Koufax.

pete (goblin time)

I think there are a lot of hitters who could break out if given a fraction of a second more to commit or bail on a swing

pete (goblin time)

I’d pay good money for a feature that strips everything after the ? from any URL someone sends you in a text

pete (goblin time)

How insane is it that Trump just says shit like “Iran’s bad for the polls so no more bombing til after the midterms! Then we’ll start again once there are no political consequences!!” Like I’ve been thinking about this all month

pete (goblin time)

They said sir, it’s called issue salience sir, so I said we’re going to lower the salience. We’re going to zero on salience

pete (goblin time)

I knew there was a @xenocryptsite.bsky.social gem on this phenomenon just took me a bit to find it

pete (goblin time)

So good

Sen. Pumpkin Gogurt@ugarles.bsky.social

from @abovethelaw.com and written by @joepatrice.bsky.social

abovethelaw.comOver 80 Percent Of Citations 'Fictitious, Erroneous, or Irrelevant' In Trump Admin Brief - Above the LawLabor board politely suggested RFK Jr shouldn't let a chatbot write the brief.

pete (goblin time)

wHAT

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social

BRAZIL'S LULA WILL BE REELECTED PRESIDENT IN RUNOFF VOTE, CEO OF POLLSTER ATLASINTEL SAYS

pete (goblin time)

wHAT leaderboards coming soon to fangraphs

pete (goblin time)

tag yourself I’m #3

This post is unavailable.

pete (goblin time)

is this all going to end with GM Kyle Boddy

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros are hiring Conner Watson as their new director of hitting, source tells @theathletic.com. Watson, a former Driveline employee, worked as the Cleveland Guardians assistant director of hitting development for the past two years.

pete (goblin time)

Going to Cheesecake Factory and spitting on the patrons for going to a restaurant so elitist that Barack Obama has heard of it

pete (goblin time)

One lesson from history (self-evident if you think about it) is if you want to influence people, write that shit down

grapesmoker@grapesmoker.bsky.social

matt yglesias is just not a very smart guy. you can see this in the way that he's constantly wrong about things, the way he's continually lying about data, the way he's basically unable to reply to counterarguments. his only real ability is churning out a huge volume of words

pete (goblin time)

from Ralston’s 2024 postmortem, on the pitfalls of trying to read the early vote tea leaves from demographics

pete (goblin time)@ptmoria.com

all this energy on early vote analysis like it’s somehow useful to figure out when different groups of people like to vote

pete (goblin time)

I’m very willing to believe pollsters are overcorrecting toward the GOP after being burned so many times the past decade. This belief will come when I see it

pete (goblin time)

all this energy on early vote analysis like it’s somehow useful to figure out when different groups of people like to vote

pete (goblin time)

“60% of people who voted in the Democratic primary have already voted!” mhm mhm mhm

pete (goblin time)

If you look at 18-29 turnout in the RGV the numbers prove Lucy can’t pull the football *this* time!

pete (goblin time)

The races where candidate selection may bite the GOP in the ass look like TX, maybe KS,* and as a crazy long shots SC? IA polls close but I feel like Hinson hasn’t given Republicans a reason to leave that race blank *I hesitate to say KS because Marshall, for all his faults, has won handily before

pete (goblin time)@ptmoria.com

Been a while so let’s update which battlegrounds with Dem leads are currently safe from a 3-point error: Alaska ✅ Georgia ✅ Iowa ❎ Kansas ❎ Maine ❎ Michigan ❎ Minnesota ✅ North Carolina ✅ Ohio ✅ Texas ❎ Thats 50-50 with Vance breaking ties

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pete (goblin time)

I can’t see Iowa coming through, just massive error history in a state people always see as competitive but which Trump won by 9, 8, and 13

pete (goblin time)

The caveat on all this is looking back there are *crazy* swings over 12-year spans and those are every bit as possible in the future as the past. When states move, they really move

pete (goblin time)

The races where candidate selection may bite the GOP in the ass look like TX, maybe KS,* and as a crazy long shots SC? IA polls close but I feel like Hinson hasn’t given Republicans a reason to leave that race blank *I hesitate to say KS because Marshall, for all his faults, has won handily before

pete (goblin time)@ptmoria.com

Been a while so let’s update which battlegrounds with Dem leads are currently safe from a 3-point error: Alaska ✅ Georgia ✅ Iowa ❎ Kansas ❎ Maine ❎ Michigan ❎ Minnesota ✅ North Carolina ✅ Ohio ✅ Texas ❎ Thats 50-50 with Vance breaking ties

pete (goblin time)

In a big enough wave anything is possible, but generally speaking winning in these deep red states takes a GOP candidate repellent to their own voters. Paxton is that kind of candidate, Vivek seems intent on becoming that guy, no Mark Robinsons or Roy Moores this time though

pete (goblin time) reposted

@joelhs.bsky.social

This is one of the larger left-of-center Facebook pages, and I do feel like a few years ago, left-of-center people on social media with large audiences were not using terms like “goyslop”?

pete (goblin time)

Shoutout to the brothers in costume at the zoo this morning showing the nature of siblinghood: one is a medieval plague doctor, the other is a banana

pete (goblin time)

Today‘s 3 Down is like a perfect example of how to write a good Saturday crossword clue

pete (goblin time)

Simple, concise, perfect double meaning, not an obscure answer, no way to get it on first pass, and when you do get it it makes you say “oh fuck you”

pete (goblin time) reposted

@baybayfriend.bsky.social

Yeah, people talk, but there are times when our age gap comes in handy :) like crosswords! I do all the clues about current music, and he does all the ones about what you used to be able to call the Irish

pete (goblin time)

“But perhaps I am being too hard on Butterbur. After all, I was the one who entrusted so important a task to a fat piece of shit like Butterbur”

pete (goblin time)@ptmoria.com

One of my favorite things on re-read was how much energy Gandalf spends fuming over Butterbur, like at the council he can’t help but go “Butterbur, that FAT FUCK”

pete (goblin time)

I mean this seriously: almost everything

Michael Druker 🇨🇦@mdruker.app

Social media loves talking about how everything is getting worse. But what’s something that you’ve seen get _better_ in your lifetime?

pete (goblin time)

What is going ON with mackerel prices

pete (goblin time)

0.6% on a pretty consequential deadline trade from not that long ago is crazy

pete (goblin time)

Consequential is not the right word but look it was a big deal at the time

pete (goblin time)

They may vote this way when it’s a nonstarter but come 2029 I’m not optimistic about a wholesale repeal

Conor Sen@conorsen.bsky.social

A Dem Congress will vote to repeal the tariffs every week of 2027, right?

pete (goblin time)

I think my first on-the-record post suggesting Callum Turner as the obvious choice for Bond was back in 2022. If he wins the role (he should) I’m taking a huge victory lap on that

pete (goblin time)

I don’t get Jack Lowden as a candidate. Good actor but a different type of guy

pete (goblin time)

The ”what if we monetized the rot” tweet doesn’t make the rounds so much anymore but it’s a perfect statement on the return to gambling degeneracy

Brett LoGiurato@brettlogiurato.bsky.social

A scoop from me: CBS-owned local stations' election coverage will be sponsored by DraftKings, a deal that has stirred concern inside the company. www.status.news/p/cbs-draftk...

status.newsCBS' DraftKings GambleCBS' owned stations will carry DraftKings branding through Election Night, Status has learned, a sponsorship that has stirred concern inside the company.

pete (goblin time) reposted

the replies are beautiful. brains like egg

Internet Archive@archive.org

An update from Brewster Kahle on today's outage.

pete (goblin time)

I’m a known poll denier but this kind of history doesn’t matter much to me. These things are true until they aren’t

Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social

In *every* election for *both* House and Senate since 1998, polls have overestimated Democrats by more in red states than blue states (and vice versa) www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

pete (goblin time)

We’re hitting the point where studying more isn’t gonna help with the test. By now we know it or we don’t. Polling error history, crosstabs, early vote data, these are just pregame superstitions

pete (goblin time)

There are big 2012 vibes coming off some prominent GOP candidates this cycle. The problem is this isn’t 2012 anymore. Would Todd Akin’s whole shit have moved the needle at all in this environment?

pete (goblin time)

Voted

pete (goblin time)

felt a little dirty voting for some downballot Dems I know to be clowns but if their opponents are sincere in wanting to do better, they can start by leaving the GOP

pete (goblin time)

I think Paxton may get a nonzero number of votes from people seeing his name on the voting machine and having the same urge to smash it as when they see a roach in the house