poorlyinformed.bsky.social

poorlyinformed.bsky.social

@poorlyinformed.bsky.social

A person who is here and will be always.

63 followers11 following490 posts

Just so everyone is aware the Russian Diesel deal will not alleviate prices, if anything it just prolongs both wars that are occurring and will spike them higher. Russians are using Iranian oil, and now the US is buying Russian diesel, which means that the US is buying Iranian product.

The US government has been put into a fiscal bind in which they will need tariff funds to keep their books in the black after this current US admin. Mckinley Tariffs-> Wilson-Gorman Tariffs -> Dingley Tariffs -> Payne-Aldrich Tariffs took 20 years to resolve. They won't be going away soon.

Now that Canada's economy and it's sovereignty has been effectively assaulted again. The country will begin a second phase of unification. The first was political, the second is economic. The economic unification was already underway but now there is even greater impetus to do it faster than before.

We will begin to see more inter-provincial progress occur and more importantly expansion. The Federal government will begin it's second tranche of foreign trade rounds and draw itself closer to Europe and Asia. This will in turn expand and strengthen Canada's economy again.

As this begins to happen the third phase of unification will slowly start to happen. The most important in terms of creating permanent social glue and effectively the equivalent of a national awakening. It will be a cultural unification.

US Admin is going to find out how tough Canada can become. Nations when sovereignty is threatened, adapt and evolve rapidly. They unify their purpose and combine their willpower. The PM has repeated "Maîtres Chez Nous" and has now added "We set our course, We make our own weather."

The issue with the current revised numbers for the US economy is that the contraction period will happen after the fact, it won't be until late 2026 early 2027 when we start to see real contractions in the GDP. US imports will begin to scale up rather as US costs will continue to swell.

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Final note, once this one-two punch connects with the US economy, later in 2027, it will begin to eat away at gains made under Biden and start to erode initial private investment that was put forward in late 2024, as those investments recede the US economy will then enter a total recession period.

The issue with the current revised numbers for the US economy is that the contraction period will happen after the fact, it won't be until late 2026 early 2027 when we start to see real contractions in the GDP. US imports will begin to scale up rather as US costs will continue to swell.

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The issue with this focus is as more and more funds are sapped from the people into the coffers of the wealthy, US productivity will plummet as surplus capital has to go into servicing input costs rather than expansion investment. Wealthy corporations will realize chain productiveness loss in 2027.

Once the corporations begin to fully absorb costs against their loans that they took on during 2024, they will be forced into a stark reality of having to offshore key aspects of their business into other countries to reduce expenses. This will result in high end job loss.

The issue with the current revised numbers for the US economy is that the contraction period will happen after the fact, it won't be until late 2026 early 2027 when we start to see real contractions in the GDP. US imports will begin to scale up rather as US costs will continue to swell.

The design of US's current economic policy is to move back towards a consumption tax based system, using tariffs instead of passing congressional legislation. This is a poor economic concept for mass prosperity but functions effectively for key in groups with the US admin.

As expected prices in the US are beginning to slowly climb up as the US-IRAN war continues to escalate. The limitless duration of it has now created enough instability in the market that affordability is gone. People will now burden themselves with debt to ride out the impact.

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Canada will reposition it's economy towards the EU and Asia as a result, with leverage positions with South America. The US will still be a trade partner but will become uncompetitive as a result of their actions leading to a global economy that will maintain itself.

The US economy will return to a normalized status, but will have experienced a great deal of contraction in key sectors. It will take decades to repair these errors resulting in subsequent admins to take fair leveraged trade deals in order to stabilize.

As expected prices in the US are beginning to slowly climb up as the US-IRAN war continues to escalate. The limitless duration of it has now created enough instability in the market that affordability is gone. People will now burden themselves with debt to ride out the impact.

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US will now be faced with a harsh and complicated truth, that the only way to prevent interest levels from completely overtaking GDP growth is to raise taxes. The US admin will subtly advocate for raising taxes on the poor, this will be ruinous to the US economy's labour power.

The other option will be to impose even more tariffs upon imported goods into the US, using backdoor approaches. This will cause industrial flight and ultimately grind all productivity out of the US economy, as labour becomes unable to get ahead and industry becomes unprofitable unless supported.

As expected prices in the US are beginning to slowly climb up as the US-IRAN war continues to escalate. The limitless duration of it has now created enough instability in the market that affordability is gone. People will now burden themselves with debt to ride out the impact.

As we continue from the last month of summer into fall we can anticipate more slowing of the american economy as the inputs and outputs become mismatched inputs too high, output revenue too low. Additionally a slowing demand as prices increase across the US. The US admin will attempt an injection.

This injection could be done in two ways a bill through congress, which will push the deficit even higher or a huge endowment made by the wealthy elite. Neither of these options will be favourable and more importantly neither will work. As US spending is now outpacing GDP growth.

US economy is in quarter 2 of this year and as expected the stall is very real and only being buffeted by big tech's investment of AI buildout. However, that buildout is now also slowing down because revenue for AI is completely mismatched with the amount of investment returns.

poorlyinformed.bsky.social reposted

I need your help, and I hate asking you for it! It sucks! As a direct result of my journalism, my safety situation is the worst it's ever been. But I'm so proud of my work. To be able to keep doing it, I need to make a push for more paid subscribers. Please, hear me out:

The US admin in the next two quarters will attempt to do economic damage control as the fuel crisis begins to have knock on effects to the summer economy. This will also play out in the US trade negotiations, which will turn USMCA deal into a non-free trade agreement. This position will be accepted.

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The US will then request a new deal with the EU. The EU will hint that the US just negotiated a deal with the EU via through Canada. That will be it. The USMCA deal will still be deployed, but Canada will be in the EU at the same time. Mexico and US will have EU access through Canada via USMCA.

The US admin in the next two quarters will attempt to do economic damage control as the fuel crisis begins to have knock on effects to the summer economy. This will also play out in the US trade negotiations, which will turn USMCA deal into a non-free trade agreement. This position will be accepted.

Once accepted, Canada will use the change on the USMCA deal as a viable argument to move their CETA deal into a free trade deal with the EU. Which will then allow Canada a "special relationship" into the EU. Canada will argue EU proximity clause via Greenland and St. Pierre Islands.

The EU will accept this as grounds of technicality allowing Canada to become an EU nation. Therefore allowing Canada to be a part of the EU. The US will attempt to point at the USMCA deal as grounds, but Canada will point to the cancellation of the free trade portion of the deal.

Over the next few months we are going to witness the US economy begin it's next slow down phase, this is where we see the tariff/energy choke start to grind down into the US investment power. The US admin will attempt stupidly to change the narrative about the reasons why these things are happening.

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When the economy pulls off course and begins to drag the the US Fed will be forced to slowly draw up the interest rates. Input costs will be high, interest rates will be high and more importantly output revenue will be reduced. This will cause economic stall. Normally in periods like this..

The US has the ability to lean on private investment, but sadly since foreign investment has refocused only domestic private investment will be available. This will mean recovery will occur at half the rate and take twice the time. If you are asking how long will this take. 7-8 years.

Over the next few months we are going to witness the US economy begin it's next slow down phase, this is where we see the tariff/energy choke start to grind down into the US investment power. The US admin will attempt stupidly to change the narrative about the reasons why these things are happening.

View full thread

The second part is that when the USFed tries to artificially lower interest rates it will cause inflation to skyrocket. These two actions when combined with the current tariff/energy choke will be like engaging the anchor of the ship while pushing ahead full with the remainder of your fuel...

Over the next few months we are going to witness the US economy begin it's next slow down phase, this is where we see the tariff/energy choke start to grind down into the US investment power. The US admin will attempt stupidly to change the narrative about the reasons why these things are happening.

They will do this by attempting to spur investment or they will try and capture the wheel of the ship and use USFED to try and turn the economy around through artificial cuts. This will have two unfortunate effects, the sudden realization that government investment is not moving the needle anymore.

Scream into the void enough and maybe it will listen. Once you start a war, your enemies will hold you in it for as long as they can. It is to their benefit to at least pin a finger, a hand, an arm, so you cannot project power further. The US walked into a trap that will go on and on and on.

The next couple of months for the US economy will be the reveal that every economist has been warning about. A fiscal tariff policy that has no foundation other than being based on whims of a lone operator will unravel and worse reveal serious foundational economic cracks that will last a decade.

I'm just going to post this quietly. US economy is in for a really long bad time. The layoffs are increasing, manufacturing is receding and productivity is becoming less productive. Basing your fiscal policy on "whatever makes the stock market go up" is beyond poor thinking it's chaos.

Ahh yes a movie about the most "charismatic" first lady directed by the most "well known" American documentarians about one of the "biggest" backslides in American history. A real recipe for success, like adding motor oil to a chocolate ganache.

What has happened is when you invite chaos in, it has no allegiance, it wants everything and never satiated. It will slither in, then it will learn to crawl, then teach itself to walk, then when its ready to run it will break through the doors and grin at you as it does.

Canada has agreed to allow Chinese EV sales and China has agreed to drop the tariffs to 15% on products. They have agreed to energy, security, and manufacturing and innovation relations. US Admin just walked into the dumbest long term fiscal trade loss in history.

US Admin will now begin to learn the full consequence of their actions this year. The abhorrent claims of economic growth while laying off 1.1 million Americans will have effects that will collide with their interpretation of a "strong and healthy" economy.

Today is tough day. Two mass casualty events and the loss of Reiners over the weekend. Hearts crack on a harsh wind. We can all be collectively sad and take our time to come back. Weep, Rest, Return. Then pick up the peace and joy that is left and put it back in the world. Carry for them undaunted.

If you drop a tariff on coffee, after running that tariff for 8 months the price doesn't just drop overnight. The product is bought in large bulk meaning the sellers will run out the contract first before they adjust the prices meaning the tariff removal will not have an effect for months.

I know no one is going to listen. Put Patton Oswalt back on. I know what he said is deemed offensive, but he was responding to an incredibly heinous item. We can't fight authoritarian propaganda by pulling punches. Patton like many voices are embodiments of a velvet glove over a steel gauntlet.

What the US Admin and GOP is doing to Americans is cruelty unleashed. It is designed oppression meant to force submission. They are playing half-court tennis. They believe the game is played by only lobbing balls over the net not expecting it to be served back. You can swing back harder.

For anyone just tuning in, while the US fights back against actual fascism. In Canada, the Conservative party's first crack in their foundation is occurring as moderate members are considering crossing the floor. If that happens we may see the end of this Reform Conservative abomination.