Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter

@pollcat.bsky.social

Part-time survey advisor at Pew Research Center, hiker, bad golfer, hoops fan

2.1K followers1.2K following34 posts

Can AI models replace traditional polling? New report from colleagues at Pew Research Center finds that AI-generated survey results struggled to accurately reproduce the findings from high-quality public opinion polls in a variety of ways. Read more www.pewresearch.org?p=549336

pewresearch.orgCan AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not ReallySynthetic surveys using digital twins do a poor job estimating the public mood and are especially error-prone for some subgroups, including Republicans and Black adults.

Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...

pewresearch.orgWeighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past VoteThis report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.
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There is growing evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in polls, particularly around presidential elections. But the need to do so has risen and the tools available to do it have gotten better.

Three ways to correct a poll’s political balance: weight on self-reported party affiliation, self-reported past vote, or voter file data such as party registration. Each has strengths and weaknesses. No one approach is clearly superior in all contexts.

Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...

pewresearch.orgWeighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past VoteThis report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.

Bogus or fraudulent respondents constitute one of the most urgent problems in online opt-in polling. This new report by my colleague Andrew Mercer looks at three methods to identify bogus cases but finds no surefire solution www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...

pewresearch.orgNo Easy Fix for Bogus Respondents in Online Opt-In PollsA new study examining online opt-in polling finds that while removing bogus respondents generally improves data quality, no single method reliably solves the problem.

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter reposted

Do you feel like you don’t fit in as a ‘Democrat’ or a ‘Republican?’ Our new political typology shows this complexity, sorting the public into nine distinct groups based on their political and cultural values. The result is a picture of American politics with far more than just red and blue.

Calling all data nerds! Pew Research Center has just released its 2025 edition of the National Public Opinion Reference Survey, with estimates of U.S. party affiliation, religious affiliation and frequency of internet use. Fact sheet and links to the dataset: www.pewresearch.org/methods/fact...

pewresearch.orgNational Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics.

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter reposted

We put together a little grab-bag of things to know about election polling in the US, for example that polling methods are quite different today than in 2016, that the margin of sampling error captures just one of several kinds of error, and much more pewrsr.ch/3iay5d5

pewrsr.chKey things to know about election polling in the United StatesThe real environment in which polls are conducted bears little resemblance to the idealized settings presented in textbooks.

Now available from Pew Research Center: the annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), which interviewed 5,626 U.S. adults identified via address-based sampling with a 32% response rate. View key estimates and download the data: pewrsr.ch/3ukleLR

pewrsr.chNational Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics.

This week we released a new version of our short course “Public Opinion Polling Basics.” In six short lessons, I discuss why we have polls, how polls work, the challenges facing polls, what to look for in a poll, and more. A new lesson focuses on election polling. www.pewresearch.org/course/publi...

pewresearch.orgPublic Opinion Polling BasicsHow do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in si...

We just released a new report exploring views of Americans about the Israel-Hamas war, including views among Jewish and Muslim Americans. Despite sharp disagreement on many questions, a majority of the public (57%) expresses sympathy for both the Palestinian and Israeli people pewrsr.ch/4co9bUo

pewrsr.chMajority in U.S. Say Israel Has Valid Reasons for Fighting; Fewer Say the Same About Hamas57% of Americans express some sympathy with both Israelis and Palestinians, including 26% who say their sympathies lie equally with both groups.

Relatively few Americans (22%) say they are closely following news about the Israel-Hamas war, and only about half can correctly report that more Palestinians than Israelis have died since the war’s start. On many attitude questions about the war, sizable numbers express no opinion

We look at measures of religious affiliation, family income, political party affiliation, gender identity and sexual orientation, race and ethnicity, and age and generation. Many of these measures have evolved over time in response to growing diversity and changing attitudes among the U.S. public.

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter reposted

NEW from the Pew Research Center: Striking findings from 2023 These findings and charts from the past year include a record-high share of unmarried Americans, record-low views of the Supreme Court, rising public concern about artificial intelligence, and more. Read the full list: pewrsr.ch/47PSOx4

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