Observing The City

Love when a city council candidate starts election denialism to his 70,000 followers.

12h

I just want to say I’m very proud of how my little site performed tonight and I hope some of you have found it useful. This is something I’ve wanted to do for a longggg time and can’t believe I made it happen.

Observing The City@observingthecity.ca

With first results coming in, Chow has an 88% chance of winning. See the forecast at observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026

12h

I've seen enough. Chow wins.

With first results coming in, Chow has an 88% chance of winning. See the forecast at observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026

Swing has been towards Chow across the city.

observingthecity.ca2026 Toronto Election Results: Live Mayor and Council MapLive unofficial results for the 2026 Toronto mayor and council races by ward, with a projection of who will win, vote share, swing from 2023 and turnout. Plus poll-by-poll maps of the 2023, 2022 and 2...

With first results coming in, Chow has an 88% chance of winning. See the forecast at observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026

Toronto will release results at 9PM, given that many polls closed at 8. Expect tons of results all at once. Check www.observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026 as they will come in fast.

Happy election day, Toronto! Get out and vote, and then at 8PM, head to observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026 for full results, mayoral winner chances and projected final results based on ward-level returns. Yes, that is the CN Tower on a bike wheel.

Bradford's struggle has been that the more voters get to know him, the more they dislike him.

bradfordvotedno.vercel.appChow said yes. Bradford said no.16 times Toronto City Council passed something by a wide margin, Olivia Chow voted yes and Brad Bradford voted no. From the City’s own voting record.

Maybe it's because they get to know his voting record? bradfordvotedno.vercel.app

In the last 3 years, Bradford has stood in the way of making Toronto a more affordable and liveable city. Please look at his voting record, and vote accordingly on Monday.

See all the details, with direct links to the votes, here: bradfordvotedno.vercel.app

Bradford up to a 1 in 3 shot of winning after the latest polls. I think Chow's team should stop being in denial on Twitter and take some big swings. If you have a horse in this race, sign up to volunteer on election day.

thestar.comMatt Elliott: Three little words explain Olivia Chow’s lack of grand vision — and one big idea could change it allIs Doug Ford limiting Toronto’s power? Columnist argues a constitutionally protected city charter could stop the premier’s municipal overreach.

This is the way. Toronto hates Doug Ford. Olivia Chow wants to be Mayor of Toronto. Olivia should clearly end her campaign on a message of supporting Toronto as a charter city. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...

Not only has Bike Share ridership continued to grow 11% year-over-year, it has quietly become *profitable* for the first time. That's right, when the province removes safe bike routes, they are also harming a *revenue-source* for the city.

Now that there has been a slew of polls since Alexander dropped out, we can see it effected Bradford's chances far more than expected. He is now up to over 20% chance of winning, from about 5% before.

Observing The City@observingthecity.ca

There have been 3 polls released since Chris Alexander dropped out of the mayoral race, and Bradford has been within 4 points in all of them. His chances of winning are up to 17% in my forecast.

observingthecity.ca2026 Toronto Mayoral ProjectionProjection of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election from public polls, adjusted for each pollster’s house effect.

See full forecast, here: observingthecity.ca/mayor-forecast

Observing The City reposted

Tom Flood

@tomflood.bsky.social

Here is Aly Van Wyck-Smart being arrested today. 🎥 dani3lp3rry

Tom Flood@tomflood.bsky.social

Toronto is not having it.

45% of Torontonians say that transportation experts and city staff should have "final say" on bike lanes. 29% say councillors, and 13% say the province. Sounds good to me! Local councillors have long gotten in the way of a lot of upgrades/plans to streetscape as well.

Construction trucks leaving Bloor and Islington area after being successfully deterred from starting work on removing bike lanes in Toronto by a large protest.

It's time to defend the bike lanes! Bloor bike lane removals are slated to begin the evening of Tuesday, October 13th. Come whenever you can in the evening, the protest will be going all evening/night while removal is slated to begin. Dress warm, bring lights and food/water!

There have been 3 polls released since Chris Alexander dropped out of the mayoral race, and Bradford has been within 4 points in all of them. His chances of winning are up to 17% in my forecast.

observingthecity.ca2026 Toronto Mayoral ProjectionProjection of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election from public polls, adjusted for each pollster’s house effect.

See all the polls, here: observingthecity.ca/mayor-forecast

Introducing Toronto's first (?) election night live result projection! Over the course of election night, the CN Tower will move along the bike wheel tracking who is more likely to be elected mayor as the votes come in! I've included a sneak preview of the page from my testing.

Bookmark this page for all your live election night results on October 26th. In addition to the live projection, I will be tracking ward-level swing, as well as every council race! www.observingthecity.ca/toronto-2026

Unprecedented things are happening in Toronto, Canada

Alexander dropping out almost doubles Bradford's chances of winning in my model. From 5% to 8%. Will have a clearer picture of real effects when a few more polls come in. For now, it's basing it on how support shifted when he entered. Doesn't seem as definitive as some (Lilley et al) would hope.

observingthecity.ca2026 Toronto Mayoral ProjectionA projection of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election from public polling, correcting each pollster for its house effect and widening the range by how much campaign is left to run.

Check out the full forecast, here: www.observingthecity.ca/mayor-forecast

observingthecity.caToronto Poll-by-Poll Election Results MapPoll-by-poll maps of the 2023 Toronto mayoral by-election and the 2022 city council races: who led each election-day poll, and each candidate’s share of the vote.

Fun find: Olivia Chow won the advanced vote in every single ward, including Etobicoke Centre.

Observing The City@observingthecity.ca

I believe I have made the first tool that gives poll-by-poll visualizations for all the 2022 Toronto city council races. I'm really excited about this one, because it's something that I have always wanted to exist.

Check it out, here: www.observingthecity.ca/elections

observingthecity.caToronto Intersection CountsEvery Toronto intersection the City has counted, mapped by how its traffic splits between cars, trucks, buses, people walking and people cycling.

Thank you, @how-sen.com for the thread! I hope others can continue to glean insights from these visualizations. My goal is to make this data as accessible as possible and not hidden in reports to council that no one reads. www.observingthecity.ca/intersection...

How-Sen Chong@how-sen.com

This tool from @observingthecity.ca is fantastic. It shows the traffic mode share by intersection using City data. Many downtown areas are dominated by pedestrians (in green). Yet *we still give most of the space to cars on almost every street.* www.observingthecity.ca/intersection...

I also hope this makes the lives of planners and other city staff easier. I want to be able to tie our decisions about space allocation and congestion to reality. Transit/walking/cycling is necessary in densely populated areas with limited road space.

Only around 40% of rush hour traffic at Bloor and Shaw in Toronto is made up of cars. Before the bike lanes on Bloor, over 80% of traffic was cars. Now more commuters pass through the intersection, although raw number of cars has decreased. If you build it, they will come.

observingthecity.caToronto Intersection CountsEvery Toronto intersection the City has counted, mapped by how its traffic splits between cars, trucks, buses, people walking and people cycling.

See intersection counts from across the city, here: www.observingthecity.ca/intersection...

17 Sept

This streetcar waited 25 seconds for one truck to turn left. Wasn’t @mayoroliviachow.ca celebrating “transit signal priority” on Spadina 6 months ago?

2 Sept

Brad Bradford says that 50% of roadway cannot be allocated to 1% of users. Good thing it isn't. Only about 1% of all of Toronto's road space is allocated to bike lanes. I showed my work, and used Danforth (the lanes he fought so hard to get added) as an example.

28 Aug

Would be great if the mayor or anyone on council could present a vision for a cycling network and then actually deliver it. Then when it’s delivered, celebrate its success. Too often when new safe street infrastructure is installed, the announcements are immediately trying to re-assure drivers.

26 Aug

Freshly installed at Runnymede and St. Clair. I know this is the default standard for bike lanes adjacent to parking for accessibility reasons. These plastic flex-posts get destroyed so easily. Why not elevate lane adjacent to parking? That would be no different re:accessibility than at a curb, no?

A few interesting observations about where people want to live in Toronto. First, the most desirable areas map almost perfectly to the areas that have lost the most population since 1971.

Alex Freeman@northernnerd.bsky.social

It's an inverse density map.

For people who live in the city, proximity to transit seems to influence border definitions (first photo) vs for people who live outside the city (second photo), borders seem more defined as boxes defined along streets rather than transit routes and specific neighbourhoods.

observingthecity.caWhere would you live in Toronto? — Observing the CityDraw the parts of Toronto you'd actually want to live in, and see where everyone else would.

Interact with the full map and submit your own results, here: www.observingthecity.ca/where-would-...

Observing The City reposted

Kanchan

@kayehm.bsky.social

Contrary to a narrative being propagated by a certain double name person, gun violence is not actually increasing in Toronto Do you know what is? Traffic fatalities. Including pedestrians, people cycling, and people riding motorcycles. Don't believe the hype. Source: www.tps.ca/data-maps/da...

23 Aug

After 92 people responded, this is where people in Toronto would live.

23 Aug

This is where the 14 people in this box would live. Try it for yourself, here: www.observingthecity.ca/where-would-...

22 Aug

I made a tool where you can draw boundaries around the sections of the city you would want to live in. Then see a heatmap of responses that can be filtered by responses from within the city and outside of the city.