Nuño Sempere
Nuño Sempere
@nunosempere.com
See clearly, act fast, hold myself well. Seek self-reinforcing loops, cherish allies, and play on the side of humanity.
3K followers33 following253 posts
Running a second cyberattack wargame if people want to join. Hope is to unearth nonobvious actions you could take in advance of a cyberattack. luma.com/psvimlhc
A forecaster friend brings up that there were three fairly big ones in the early 2000s, fairly close to each other, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klez>, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mydoom>, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sobig>
I've extracted the ones with over 1B in damages here: <https://gist.github.com/NunoSempere/d9e5c88d6fa8f88fe625c68997f84432>, for a base rate of 5 over the last 20 years, so a yearly probability of ~25%
I initially was looking for lists of cyberattacks. This one seems good enough: <https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2026-03/260306_Cyber_Events.pdf?VersionId=l.avxWl19oYNKw3tn24z0XRqCva_n5T3>.
A review of Israeli assasination campaigns: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/n06/andrew-cockburn/beware-the-mattress
Ditto for mutual admiration societies, https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/mutual_admiration_society (derrogatory), or Green beard altruism, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green-beard_effect, citation cartels.
breaks my heart when you have a system aimed towards human flourishing that just exhausts itself, spends down its resources. Compare https://www.founderspledge.com/programs/patient-philanthropy-fund with https://www.givedirectly.org/
Previously you could trust and install a random github repository, but this changes as people can create malicious repositories at scale <https://www.reddit.com/r/netsec/comments/1r66u2r/analysis_massive_active_github_malware_campaign/> :(
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