Moritz Marbach

🚨New Paper in PNAS: "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Ungated preprint osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/px9ew_v3 w/ J Hainmueller, D Hangartner, @niklas-harder.bsky.social & E Vallizadeh #econtwitter #econsky

These results suggest that early & active employment support via public employment infrastructure can generate substantial & sustained gains in refugee labor market integration—but intensified counseling alone cannot address all barriers, particularly for refugee women from certain origin countries.

🚨New Paper in PNAS: "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Ungated preprint osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/px9ew_v3 w/ J Hainmueller, D Hangartner, @niklas-harder.bsky.social & E Vallizadeh #econtwitter #econsky

For other refugee groups, gains concentrated among younger men. Effects for women were smaller and often not statistically significant—likely reflecting structural barriers such as childcare, slower language acquisition, and limited transferability of credentials in regulated professions.

🚨New Paper in PNAS: "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Ungated preprint osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/px9ew_v3 w/ J Hainmueller, D Hangartner, @niklas-harder.bsky.social & E Vallizadeh #econtwitter #econsky

Using administrative data and a DID, we find that among Ukrainian refugees, the monthly exit-to-job rate rose by 1.8pp—a 113% increase over baseline. That’s ~58,000 additional placements over 23 months. For refugees from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq & others: +1pp (+28%), ~43,000 more placements!

🚨New Paper in PNAS: "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Ungated preprint osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/px9ew_v3 w/ J Hainmueller, D Hangartner, @niklas-harder.bsky.social & E Vallizadeh #econtwitter #econsky

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

The refurbished website gives you more control over what you see: toggle journal visibility and drag and drop to reorder journals. There is now also a dark mode 😎 and you can export BibTeX citations for new papers directly to your clipboard 📋(and from there to your reference manager).

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

We now cover 142 journals — the top 20% of political science journals (N=70) and the top 5% of journals in adjacent fields. To rank journals, we used the Journal Citation Reports’ Article Influence Score.

🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes osf.io/preprints/so... #polisciresearch

Using constituency-level electoral data, we show that in East German constituencies with more out-migration between 1990–1994, the incumbent vote share increased. What explains this? Do voters reward the incumbent for high out-migration (sparked by increasing unemployment)? Unlikely.

🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes osf.io/preprints/so... #polisciresearch

These two types of effects are conceptually similar but different to natural (in)direct effects in mediation analysis. We discuss how to identify, estimate, and bound the compositional effect from in- and out-migration.

🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes osf.io/preprints/so... #polisciresearch

When studying how internal migration affects changes in district-level electoral outcomes, it is important to separate the compositional effect (heterogeneity in political behavior between movers and stayers) from the exposure effect (change in political behavior due to exposure to migration).

Now in print: "The impact of private hosting on the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany" with Mathis Herpell, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, @alexandra-orlova.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner & Jens Hainmueller doi.org/10.1038/s415... @immigrationlab.bsky.social @uclspp.bsky.social

🚨New paper: Does ad hoc language training improve the economic integration of refugees? Evidence from Germany’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis 🚨 w/ Ehsan Vallizadeh, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

Working paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Research brief: immigrationlab.org/project/prep...

🚨New paper: Does ad hoc language training improve the economic integration of refugees? Evidence from Germany’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis 🚨 w/ Ehsan Vallizadeh, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

5/ The limited number of classroom hours (320 vs. 600 hours), a non-standardized curriculum, and a lack of certification might explain the differences between the two programs.

🚨New paper: Does ad hoc language training improve the economic integration of refugees? Evidence from Germany’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis 🚨 w/ Ehsan Vallizadeh, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

3/ Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare refugees who arrived in Germany before and after the eligibility cutoff for the ad hoc program, observing refugee employment outcomes over nearly 2 years. We find that the ad hoc program had no impact on employment.

🚨New paper: Does ad hoc language training improve the economic integration of refugees? Evidence from Germany’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis 🚨 w/ Ehsan Vallizadeh, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

1/ Over 1 million refugees arrived in Germany in 2015. When established language training programs ("Integrationskurse") reached capacity, the Federal Employment Agency swiftly launched a new ad hoc program ("Einstiegskurse zur Deutschförderung") to enroll more.

🚨 Picnic Notifications 📨: After much popular demand, you can now subscribe to weekly email notifications from paper-picnic.com. All new content from 30+ political science journals in 1 no-fluff email on Fridays.

🚨New paper: The Impact of Private Hosting on the Integration of Ukrainian Refugees 🚨 w/ Mathis Herpell, Niklas Harder, Alexandra Orlova, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller osf.io/preprints/so... #polisciresearch #econtwitter

4/ Comparing refugees who were matched with similar refugees who registered but were not matched with a host due to host unavailability, we find that refugees who receive and accept the offer for accommodation are much better integrated.

🚨New paper: The Impact of Private Hosting on the Integration of Ukrainian Refugees 🚨 w/ Mathis Herpell, Niklas Harder, Alexandra Orlova, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller osf.io/preprints/so... #polisciresearch #econtwitter

2/ Connecting refugees with locals volunteering to host them has the potential to relieve public asylum reception & housing systems. Does it also help refugees integrate?