Harold “Hal” Hill

The Dow slid on Friday as a sell-off in tech in the prior session shifted to other areas of the market and U.S. oil prices topped $100 a barrel amid rising fears that the U.S.-Iran conflict would flare up again. CNBC

Donald Trump said he ordered the justice department to file a lawsuit to block the certification of Alaska’s US Senate results if the Republican incumbent on the ballot does not win. MSN

Arizona Republicans locked in tough races are starting to create distance between themselves and President Donald Trump. In interviews with GOP candidates this week, there were emerging signs that Trump’s decade-long iron grip on the party is waning. 👍

Bloomberg has sent a fresh infusion of cash into several Democratic groups, including House Majority PAC, during the closing days of the midterms. 👍 Punchbowl News

Trump’s approval rating on the economy has fallen from 45% in February 2025 to well under 30% now. The WaPo-ABC had Trump at 28% on the economy, the Financial Times had him at 28% and AP-NORC reported it at a shockingly low 26%. This is blowout territory on the biggest issue by far for voters.

A current forecast published October 18 gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning at least 51 Senate seats. Another forecasting model puts the probability at 68%. These are model estimates, not election results. ChatGTP

Money is king. Senator Ally Mutnick has shown how Democratic candidates are outraising their GOP counterparts by wide margins. Because candidates can buy ad rates at a lower price than outside super PACs, this can close the gap between Democrats and Republicans. Be sure to vote!

Democratic candidates have brought in massive sums in Q3, allowing them to hold their own in key House and Senate races and blunting the GOP’s outside money edge. 👍 Punchbowl News

Chuck Schumer has succeeded in recruiting strong candidates for the midterms — former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Josh Turek and Roy Cooper in particular – giving Democrats a chance of winning the majority. 👍

Anyone around Jeffries these days will tell you everything is breaking his way. House Majority PAC raised more than $230 million last quarter. Mega-billionaire Mike Bloomberg is starting to open his wallet for House Democrats, allowing Jeffries’ DCCC and HMP to go into second-tier districts.

TECH SUMMET: At the Summit, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) talked kill switches and permitting. Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) called for “constructive oversight” that would bring in tech officials to build better policy. 👍

MIDTERMS: Many of the key races are within the margin of error, with Democrats close or leading. Republicans are being forced to spend tens of millions of dollars to defend candidates in Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. The momentum is clearly on Democrats’ side, although there are still weeks to go.👍

In the two years since Trump’s return to the Oval Office, Iowa voters have soured on Trump’s economy and the Iran war. The dismal economic outlook has created an opening for a Turek victory, which would boost Democratic chances of winning back control of the Senate. 👍

Redistricting scorecard. Republicans’ unprecedented mid-decade redistricting push created 14 new strongly red districts. But with less than a month until Election Day, the GOP is a sure bet to win only five of these races. 👍

Sen. John Curtis, the Republican from Utah, called out the president’s son over a report that a Russian oligarch paid for some of his wedding-related expenses. Curtis asked the Senate Judiciary Committee to subpoena Donald Trump Jr. as part of a broad investigation into the business dealings. 👍

House Democrats’ chief outside groups — raised a staggering $230 million in Q3 in their best quarter ever, HMP President Mike Smith told us. This is a huge boon for Democrats as they strive for the House majority amid an avalanche of spending from GOP groups. 👍

Now the Senators will remain at home until after Election Day. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is entering this crucial campaign stretch with well-earned optimism about how the Senate map looks for Democrats. 😊

Jamie Raskin, Robert Garcia, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Assistant Democratic Leader Joe Neguse have been huddling in recent weeks to strategize about the investigatory agenda after the midterm elections. Jeffries has repeatedly stressed the need to “hold the crooks accountable,” 👍

Gas prices are sky-high. Diesel sets a new record almost daily. Trump said at the UN that the Iran war won’t end until “after the midterm elections.” That’s a frightening prospect for GOP lawmakers who are now publicly calling for an end to the seven-month conflict.

Artificial intelligence is alarming voters and leading to calls for government action. Some say our economy is at stake. Others argue the survival of our species is on the line. It’s not your regular ol’ policy debate. Support candidates who promise to adequately regulate AI.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the lead sponsor of Medicare for All legislation, told reporters Monday she will be reintroducing the measure in the next Congress and pushing for a committee markup. 👍

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is warned President Donald Trump against loosening controls on sales of advanced AI chips to China, calling the president’s approach to the issue counterproductive even as the White House seeks U.S. domination of the technology. Punchbowl News

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) launches $8M coordinated ad buy. The DCCC is making an $8 million coordinated ad buy across 26 districts this week as it more fully embraces the Supreme Court ruling that allows the campaign arm to run ads jointly with candidates. 👍

Republicans acknowledge the Middle East conflict has caused energy prices to surge and contributed to worries about affordability, two top concerns heading into the midterms. That’s why Trump’s illegal unnecessary war favors more wins for Democratic candidates. 👍

Dozens of races are drawing major ad spending as the worsening political environment for Republicans is forcing red seats into play. New rules around coordinated spending and the influx of President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. cash add even more chaos. Punchbowl News

In the House of Representatives half a dozen senior Pentagon officials were offering a bipartisan briefing Thursday on the funding picture. The House had left a day earlier through the elections, and President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion dreams seem as unlikely as ever, 👍

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce this afternoon whether it’s raising interest rates for the first time in three years to counter persistently high inflation and calm a bond market that’s punishing U.S. bonds. A hike would raise the cost of living for tens of millions of Americans.

Rep. Al Green is forcing another impeachment vote on Trump this week, and this time it's centered squarely on what's happening at the border. Green's resolution accuses Trump of turning ICE and CBP into what he calls "vicious, quota-driven, unaccountable paramilitary police forces.” The Story Desk

OpenAI and Anthropic, the two most important AI labs, are begging to be regulated. Elon Musk said on the “All In” podcast that it would be “bad” if AI could “take control of military systems and, say, launch a nuke.” Congress’ reaction is somewhere between chasing its tail and a shrug.👎

Defense Department leaders indicated in recent days they’re beginning to reckon with the implications of Congress not approving the military’s full $350 billion reconciliation request. The funds are the cornerstone of DOD’s proposed 50% budget hike. 👍

IT IS CRITICAL DECISION TIME FOR DEMOCRATS: The House Democratic super PAC has decided it won’t spend a dime to elect Democrats who aren’t speaking about the economy or rising costs. They have decided that just saving democracy doesn’t have enough appeal. I hope they are right. 🙏

TRUMP’S MIDTERM CONVENTION Republicans face some enormous challenges heading into the final eight weeks of the campaign. There are very few opportunities for Republicans to save their endangered House and Senate majorities. Trump’s reputation may be their biggest obstacle.

The Republicans’ Midterm Convention in Dallas begins Wednesday. Trump will appear at an RNC roundtable. The admission price is $250,000. A photo with the president will cost you $88,600. Thursday the roundtable for Vance is $75,000 per person. A photo will cost $35,000. 🤑

Republicans are holding their midterm convention starting on Wednesday. Trump will speak on both nights, as will a variety of Cabinet officials, members of GOP congressional leadership and candidates in battleground races. It is their opportunity to hear Trump tell them what great job he is doing. 😉

DEMOCRATIC LACK OF UNITY Tuesday when Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) shocked the caucus when they voted for a GOP procedural motion. Without these two Democratic votes, the GOP rule would have failed on the floor. So the Democratic pair saved the GOP agenda. 👎

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership team is discussing a broad overhaul of how the House Democratic Caucus operates as the party inches toward the midterm elections — and potentially the majority. 👍 Punchbowl News

Data center backlash is getting alot worse. It is increasingly a central issue of the midterms, especially in some critical contests like the Ohio Senate race. It could cost the GOP the Ohio seat. The GOP’s argument isn’t quite breaking through to convince voters. 👍

Speaker Mike Johnson was swinging through key Pennsylvania battlegrounds Wednesday, he told people he sees momentum for the GOP. Efforts to frame Democrats as too extreme for American voters, seem to be failing given democratic socialist’s win Tuesday in the Florida Senate primary. 👍

PUNCH BOWL NEWS POLL Question: Which issue is most shaping your midterm vote? More than half, 54%, said affordability was driving them to the polls this November. That’s not surprising given how much the nation is contending with the high cost of living, including the price of groceries and gas.

The rise of the progressive left is dominating coverage of the 2026 election cycle. Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) chairs the New Dem Action Fund. The real story, Stanton says, is the strength of moderates running in the toss-up districts that will decide control of the House.

After nearly a decade of loudly complaining about the fact that modern US aircraft carriers use electromagnetic systems to launch fighter jets instead of steam-powered catapults, Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to redesign a new aircraft carrier to replace it with the old-fashioned catapults.

ELECTION RESULTS Minnesota. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in a significant win for the progressive left. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) backed Flanagan in the Democratic Senate primary over the more centrist Craig, a four-term House member. 👍

It’s been a rough stretch overall for Trump and Hill Republicans. Inflation remains elevated, as do gas prices. Last week’s jobs report was weak. The Iran peace talks are a huge problem. Trump’s poll numbers are terrible. In the mid-terms the Republican candidates have very little to run on.

A federal appeals court blocked President Donald Trump’s $400 million White House ballroom in a 2-1 vote on Aug. 7, saying that above-ground construction could not proceed without congressional approval. MSN

Thune’s trainwreck has done some damage: After days of slow-motion negotiations, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has set up a series of high-profile votes today, including on the Russia sanctions bill and a short-term government funding package. Punchbowl News

REPUBLICANS ON ETHICS Suddenly the House Ethics Committee is in the middle of the midterm elections.The normally secretive panel announced Tuesday that it was looking into allegations of domestic abuse and illegal drug use by GOP Rep. Max Miller (Ohio), a scandal about his election. 👍

MICHIGAN PRIMARY Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading despite more than $55 million in outside ads boosting moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the Senate Democratic primary. El-Sayed is up by less than 1.5% as of early this morning. 👍

TODD BLANCHE’S CONFIRMATION Senator Cornyn was willing to play hardball to secure his demands. Cornyn wants a legally binding document that kills the $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund and restricts President Donald Trump’s audit immunity deal.👍