Met4Cast

The likelihood of the earliest major sudden stratospheric warning on record is increasing for early November. 67.7% of the GEFS show zonal winds reversing while 86.3% of the ECM ensembles show a reversal. The current earliest reversal on record is November 28th in 1968.

As Storm #Boelo tracks across/close to N/NW Scotland on Saturday night, its central pressure is likely to be 946-949 hPa. The current UK October low MSLP record is 947.9 hPa (Storm Amy 2025). There's a chance we could beat this... just one week after near-record high MSLP! bsky.app/profile/danh...

It’s not often you see such tightly wrapped symmetrical extra-tropical low sat in the English Channel. Storm Austen is a beauty (from space, anyway).

Storm Austen is meteorologically beautiful, probably won’t be saying that when the 60-70mph gusts and driving rain arrive first thing tomorrow morning though.

The precise track of Storm Austen continues to shift slightly between runs but broadly speaking, Cornwall, coasts of Devon & along the south coast are likely to see a spell of disruptive winds through Friday.

Here's a closer look at the wind gusts associated with #StormAusten through Friday morning. Details are still subject to change as modelling tries to resolve the precise track / intensity.

⚠️ The Met Office have issued an AMBER wind warning for parts of Cornwall for Friday as Storm Austen is expected to bring a spell of very windy weather. 60-70mph, locally 80mph gusts possible.

The latest UKV continues to suggest gusts of 60-70mph across Cornwall and southwest coasts with localised gusts now reaching 80mph as Storm Austen moves east on Friday. Strong winds will then transfer east along the southern coasts.

Persistent rain aided by orographic lift through today could give 40-50mm locally across the hills of western Scotland by tomorrow morning.

Potential for some dense fog patches across southern England over the next few mornings, particularly on Tuesday morning across southern England 🌫️

Version 1.0 of my app is now running on my phone, allowing me to download & render charts on the go. I will eventually move the back end data/rendering process onto a server to massively increase the speed, but it’s a start!

TUESDAY A dry day for most away from a few showers to the southwest early morning, variable amounts of cloud but there should be some good sunny spells around. Through tomorrow evening the next weather system pushes into the southwest.

An area of instability moving out of northern France during Monday night may bring heavy rain & thunderstorms to parts of southeast England. Whilst much of the activity may stay offshore, can't rule out some cells working in across parts of Sussex/east Kent for example.

Through tomorrow a weather front moving in against high pressure will rapidly decay, potentially quite wet for the western Isle of Scotland and western Ireland however.

I still have no idea what these bars are supposed to represent on the Met Office app. Today is warmer than yesterday so today’s bar is longer, okay, but that doesn’t look like a 1°C difference, the gap is far too wide. The bars make zero sense!!

Keeping an eye on Wednesday for potential thunderstorms ahead of a cold front advecting east/southeast. Wales into parts of the Midlands currently most likely to see some thunderstorms. ⚡️

Absolutely!

I designed these charts with simplicity and clarity in mind.

The weather will remain rather changeable into next week, an area of rain pushes across Wales, Midlands & southern England through tonight and tomorrow, locally heavy in places. Some signs beginning to emerge later next week for a return to drier & potentially hotter weather.

Widespread showers will develop tomorrow but where CAPE (cyan colours) and deep layer shear (blue contours) overlap is where we're likely to see a higher risk of thunderstorms developing, i.e across the Midlands. Pulse type storms most likely tomorrow.

SAT 29 AUG A broad trough sat across the UK with colder air aloft will provide forcing for heavy showers & thunderstorms through this afternoon. Given relatively low cloud bases and local convergence, particularly through the SLGT region, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

I'm currently in the process of creating my own suite of data driven weather charts, UKV and AROME are implemented but I plan on adding as many other models as possible. Is there a specific chart you'd like to see that most websites don't offer? The more unique the better.

WED 26 AUG | THUNDERSTORMS An occlusion lifting slowly north will generate forcing for widespread heavy showers across England and Wales, some of these potentially turning thundery in nature. Through the MOD zone one or two more severe thunderstorms are possible bringing the risk of flooding.

According to ERA5 global sea surface temperatures have set a new all time record. This is likely the warmest sea surface temperatures have been in at least the last 125,000 years. What’s more concerning is this will likely rise further in the coming months.

Keeping a close eye Tuesday night & Thursday. A sub-tropical low currently to the west of Biscay will lift north introducing some inherently unstable air, this could allow for prolonged torrential rainfall & thunderstorms, possibly leading to flash flooding in places.

The National Hurricane Centre is monitoring the low to the west of Biscay, they give it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression although is expected to quickly weaken as it encounters an unfavourable environment. Even so - The fact it’s being monitored is pretty wild.

Gorgeous spinny boi of a low down to the southwest of the UK, potential that it could develop some sub-tropical characteristics on the next day or two. May bring heavy thundery rain to southern counties of England on Tuesday ⚡️

Sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific have now reached a staggering 11.1°C above average. Whilst El-Nino development has temporarily slowed due to an uptick in easterly trade winds, strong westerly wind bursts over the next 1-3 weeks will re-initiate rapid development.

We’ve had some rain so naturally water companies are immediately discharging sewage into our seas again. These people should be in prison, instead they receive million £ bonuses. For what? Polluting our water ways and restricting our water use?

Temperature in the western Mediterranean are now >6°C above average. An attribution study has shown that out of a rise of +3.1°C this summer, >2°C can be directly attributable to climate change. We are super heating our oceans.

The @metoffice.gov.uk partnership with Aardman may have gone too far..

The @metoffice.gov.uk partnership with Aardman may have gone too far..

New high resolution images showing the extent of this summers drought vs last years more "normal" summer. A little browning is normal in summer but the extent we've seen this year is remarkable. No meaningful rainfall for over 2 months in many areas.

Some much needed rain will push into southwest & central southern England counties through tonight. Whilst most will likely only see 1-3mm, locally we could see 5-10mm where heavier bursts develop.

Temperatures in the Mediterranean basin are now setting new all time temperature records by a fairly significant margin with much of the sea now at severe or extreme maritime heatwave levels. Devastating for wildlife & local ecosystems.

Global sea surface temperatures are now just 0.02C away from setting new all time records. Average temperatures have reached 21.16C with virtually no where on the planet below average. El Nino will continue to develop over the coming months pushing temperatures higher.

This is beyond unprecedented. El Niño forecasts are now approaching 5°C above average in the Nino3 region. Average global temperatures in 2027 could potentially exceed 2.0°C above the pre-industry baseline.

Here’s a very early & very long range look at what autumn / winter 2026 could have in store for the UK and northwest Europe.

Predictions for global temperatures for 2027 are nothing short of extraordinary. It’s possible we could reach 1.7-1.8°C above the pre-industry baseline, setting new all time temperature records. That would mark 5 consecutive years warmer than anything observed before 2023.

Sub-surface ocean temperatures in the Pacific have now reached 9.96°C above average, significantly warmer than the previous record event in 1997. This El Niño continues to set new records. Nobody alive today has witnessed an event of this magnitude.

Sub-surface ocean temperatures in the Pacific have now reached 9.96°C above average, significantly warmer than the previous record event in 1997. This El Niño continues to set new records. Nobody alive today has witnessed an event of this magnitude.

RAIN?! ☔️ The 12z GFS manages to bring a band of rain across central & southern counties through Tuesday night & into Wednesday. It would be the first meaningful rainfall for 2 months. Other models have this feature being much more patchy / showery, however.

Frittenden has reached 35.8°C this afternoon marking the 10th day to exceed 35°C this year. That doubles the previous records set in 1976 and 1995.

Horrific scenes in the West Midlands. A wildfire has moved into a residential area, reports are that 6 houses so far have burnt down with injuries being reported. Hard to believe this is happening in the UK.

Remarkable. A provisional 38.1°C at Kew Gardens marks the hottest day so far this remarkable summer, and draws with 2022 for being one of only two years where 38°C has been reached twice in a summer.

Charlwood is now at 37.8°C. The all time August temperature record of 38.5°C (the previous all time UK record) has a small chance of being broken. This is the first time since records began that temperatures have reached 37°C in two consecutive months.