Mark Hibbs

Mark Hibbs

@mark88.bsky.social

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are in Washington, D.C. I'm in Berlin.

542 followers168 following195 posts

That's fine, but as you know and Von der Leyen must also know, there is no such thing as "associate membership" in the EU Treaty. Under Article 49, Canada would not be considered a European state. NATO handles most Euro-defense issues; the EU has non-NATO members.

Le Figaro@lefigaro.fr

L’UE et le Canada ne veulent pas «dominer les autres», assure Carney. → https://l.lefigaro.fr/DD7o

"Golden Arches Theory"--a permutation of the quaint post-Cold War convergence theory of International relations: "The more we trade with them and the nicer we are, the more they will become like us."

World Politics Review@wpr.bsky.social

Thomas Friedman’s “Golden Arches theory” in the 90s held that no two countries with a McDonald’s had gone to war with one another—until they did. The claim that Donald Trump avoids war where he holds property has met a similar fate, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

So this is about Assad's U3O8? Anything of more acute interest? A "US official" is cited here as saying there is something else at this location. What, then? Did they ask? Murky rumors that Turkey is mixed up in this? Pray, tell.

Ankit Panda@nktpnd.bsky.social

"The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will soon remove nuclear material stored at a clandestine site in Syria" www.axios.com/2026/08/10/s...

Mark Hibbs reposted

Oh good grief. This is paranoia wrapped up in fantasy. Canada’s nuclear industry, including plans for new reactors, do not give any reasons that Canada may break or exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Aside from it being politically suicidal for the government, it remains practically impossible. 1/

Mark Hibbs reposted

Reupping this, in light of the news that Iran has agreed to let IAEA inspectors back into the country. If true it's a good start, but as @mark88.bsky.social explained, the IAEA lost continuity of knowledge and an accurate baseline for safeguards after June 2025, and it's gotten worse since then.

worldpoliticsreview.comIran’s Nuclear Program Took a Real Hit. So Did IAEA Oversight of ItThe U.S. attack on Fordow did real damage to the site. But it also set back the IAEA’s oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.

How many people in Washington this week will tell their funders that they succeeded behind the scenes in convincing Rubio and Trump that the U.S. should "cooperate" with China?

Chancelier Merz ne cesse de dire des choses qui vont lui attirer des ennuis...

Le Figaro@lefigaro.fr

Le chancelier Friedrich Merz a déconseillé aux jeunes Allemands d'aller étudier et travailler aux États-Unis, en pleine passe d'armes avec le président américain Donald Trump. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/Xikn

..and the ultimate challenge to the revolving-door career culture of Washington's permanent meritocracy. It could still take effective action.

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Mark Hibbs reposted

The EU wants to reestablish the nuclear power supply it once had, when nuclear provided about a 1/3 of the bloc’s electricity supply. But Europe's industrial capacity, financial challenges, & politics are major obstacles to a "nuclear renaissance."

thebulletin.orgWhy politics, money, and construction capacity will limit any European turn toward nuclear power generationThe EU wants to reestablish the nuclear power supply it once had, when nuclear provided about a third of the bloc’s electricity supply. But Europe's industrial capacity, financial challenges, and…

Beyond happy talk and tweaking bureaucratic rules, Europe has a very long road ahead if it aims to renew its nuclear industry capacity enough to make a difference. In this piece I and Miles Pomper of MIIS identify the big picture obstacles.

The EU wants to reestablish the nuclear power supply it once had, when nuclear provided about a 1/3 of the bloc’s electricity supply. But Europe's industrial capacity, financial challenges, & politics are major obstacles to a "nuclear renaissance."

It was Rembrandt who changed the complexion of European art by painting real Jews in biblical scenes. That was beginning in the 1630s. Here, in 1909, Mary looks extremely Ukrainian!

Yaroslava@strategywoman.bsky.social

Today is Annunciation in Ukraine. In Christian tradition, this is the moment when the angel tells Mary she will give birth to Jesus. In Ukrainian culture, it is also seen as the beginning of spring, the day when the earth awakens. Oleksandr Murashko, Annunciation, 1909

Not convinced that greater defenses in Ukraine would have "ended" Putin's war. But there is no doubt that both US and Europe have failed to do specific things that would isolate, penalize, and defund Moscow's war machine.

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

🇺🇦🇫🇮 Russia’s war in Ukraine could have ended by now if Kyiv had received the level of air defense deployed in the Persian Gulf countries during the week of the war, — Finnish President Stubb

Global Entry should be terminated. At Islamabad airport, personnel request baksheesh to let you jump the queue. At US airports, it's the federal government that asks you to grease their palm for that 'service.' DHS should staff up and put an end to this form of institutionalized corruption.

If Canada wins in Milan this afternoon, Trump will say: 1.) Canada stole the game from the US, and/or 2.) The referees were disloyal and unpatriotic.

As a frame, worth recalling that yesterday at MSC German Chancellor Friedrich Merz quoted the philosopher Peter Sloterdijk: The 5-decade "holiday from world history is over."

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No information here on who supplied the turbine generator equipment for A-2. France shipped it to Rosatom in a deal with Erdogan and Trump to brush off U.S. trade sanctions imposed after Putin's invasion of Ukraine? world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...

world-nuclear-news.orgAkkuyu 2's turbine generator stator installedThe 437-tonne turbine generator stator was moved on a special track before being lifted into place in the turbine hall of unit 2 at Turkey's Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.  ;

Perhaps this incident will prompt Sánchez and his Socialist Party base to take seriously from now on what NATO is facing on its eastern border.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️ Spanish defense minister's plane hit by GPS disturbance near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. The A330 aircraft was traveling to Lithuania's Siauliai air base, reportedly also carrying relatives of Spanish air force personnel deployed as part of a NATO policing mission.

Here in Germany if extreme polarization prompted justices of the Constitutional Court to make such accusations, the country's leadership & everyone else would engage on how to avoid/prepare for a national state of emergency (Innerer Notstand/Notstandsgesetze)

The New York Times@nytimes.com

In solo dissents this term, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson accused the conservative majority of the Supreme Court of lawless bias. On the term’s last day, Justice Amy Coney Barrett fired back.

Louis-Ferdinand Céline à Eugène Dabit, 1933: "La vie ne passe plus par la littérature. C'est une ville ancienne capitale comme Dijon abandonnée aux chats amputés...''

Read Nicole's thread on Iran timelines. What she was maybe too polite or politic to say is that many op-ed estimates are ultimately less driven by analytical assumptions and more by DC-routine binary myopia: Trump loyalists claim all was destroyed. Trump's foes say Iran can get the bomb in months.

Ankit Panda@nktpnd.bsky.social

That's the thing about truth-seeking and evidence-based policy.

Grossi isn't guessing. The IAEA in fact has some quantitative evidence permitting the conclusion that the centrifuges at Fordo are broken.

The New York Times@nytimes.com

Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are "no longer operational" after the U.S. attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio Thursday.

"Expert X says Iran could have nuclear weapons in a year." "Expert Y says Iran's nuclear weapons quest was set back between 2 and 5 years." "Expert Z says Iran's nuclear weapons program was virtually destroyed."

IAEA board on Monday could request Secretariat & Iran to re-verify, report on safeguards status of Iran's HEU inventory: All material accounted for? Safeguards continuity? Prerequisites: Iran's cooperation, halt to Israeli warfare in Iran.

Israël se prépare-t-il à mettre un terme aux bombardements?

Le Figaro@lefigaro.fr

«Le fait que nous ayons éliminé ces personnes hauts gradés et scientifiques est extrêmement important.» →https://l.lefigaro.fr/qL7

But a week of Israeli attacks which have disabled virtually all of Iran's above-ground strategic nuclear infrastructure won't incentivize Iran to have nuclear weapons?

Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.bsky.social

American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...

Mark Hibbs reposted

L’islamologue analyse les ressorts et les conséquences de la guerre qui oppose Israël et l’Iran. La chute du régime des mollahs représenterait, selon lui, un tournant historique aussi important que celui de la chute du mur de Berlin. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/S18

Will the next US step be to provide bunker-busting bombs to attack underground nuclear sites in Iran, led off by Fordo? Are US Republicans on board with this US escalation? As long as Israel has command of Iranian air space, probably yes.

The U.S. military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, tilting Washington toward more direct involvement in the widening conflict.

What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by still other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.

What media on Friday morning called an Israeli attack to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capacity 24 hrs later looks more like a military escalation prompted by other aims and having a longer trajectory that may incentivize Iran to cross the line on nuclear arms.

Le Figaro@lefigaro.fr

In fine, Donald Trump pourrait faire payer à Benyamin Netanyahou une escalade qu’il voulait justement éviter. →https://l.lefigaro.fr/0vC

@ericasimov.bsky.social Excerpting a late comment I posted to your 4/21/22 piece: We were shocked by an expensive 2019 Viré-Cruzille from Julien Guillot. Sulfur nose, after 2 decantings still tasted like iron. Some Ziereisen whites also like this. What's behind this? Fundamentalist bio-winemaking?

Tracking with the trend that a disproportionate share of Germany's irregular migrants/political asylum seekers are males between the age of 15 and 25...

Sune Engel Rasmussen@suneengel.bsky.social

Europol has launched a new task force to combat the recruitment of minors for terrorism and organized crime. ICYMI, here's my story from last month about the growing threat to Europe from teenage terrorists, Islamists and well as right-wingers www.wsj.com/world/europe...

nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo... "This newly available historical evidence shows that the U.S. was deeply involved...From the very beginning, government secrecy, obfuscation, lies, and the incomplete and contradictory statements of key American participants confused the record."

nsarchive.gwu.eduA House Divided: Washington, Langley, Saigon, and the Plot Against DiemWashington, D.C., May 22, 2025 - Early in the morning of October 7, 1963, the top leadership of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) gathered in the office of the Director of Central Intelligence (DC...