LiveFPL

LiveFPL

@livefpl.net

Follow your exact live #FPL rank through the GW + live leagues, price change predictions, top10k, averages, EOs, rank tiers, plan for future GWs and more http://www.livefpl.net/rank

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Another night of LiveFPL predicting 100% of rises and falls 🙏 🔼 Salah, Palmer, Jackson, J Pedro, Amad, AWB and Burgess 🔽 Madueke + Doku + White + Nkunku + Raul + Fatawu + Deivid + Murphy + Vicario + Khannous + Johnstone + Steele + Disasi

Another night of LiveFPL predicting 100% of rises and falls 🙏 🔼 Salah, Palmer, Jackson, J Pedro, Amad, AWB and Burgess 🔽 Madueke + Doku + White + Nkunku + Raul + Fatawu + Deivid + Murphy + Vicario + Khannous + Johnstone + Steele + Disasi

Still 6 hours till price changes but here is how predictions look at the moment (www.livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️ Salah + Jackson + Palmer + Amad + AWB + J Pedro + potentially: Saka + Kluivert + Kerkez + Burgess ⬇️ Diaz + Raul + Madueke + VdV + White + Dunk + McNeil

Good predictions! 🔼 Aina 🔽 Mbeumo + Konate + Elanga + Bruno G + Duran + Andreas + G. Rodriguez + Walton + Neto All predicted to change (except Neto at -99.91%) ✅ J Pedro no rise ✅

All risers and fallers were predicted by LiveFPL! 🔼 Saka + Odegaard + Cunha + Mitoma + VVD + Porro + Onana + RAN + Mazraoui + Young 🔽Haaland + Bernardo + Gvardiol + ESR + Vardy + Rogers + Adama + Scott + Munoz + Lewis + keane + Da Silva + Iroegbunam We had 2 false rise alarms

Everyone in the list was predicted to change by LiveFPL. We had 2 non realized rises (so 10/12 happened): Aina + Collins We had ~50% predicted but non realized falls, and that's our biggest weakness tbh, that's where improvement can happen over time

Early predictions for price changes tonight (www.livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️11 players: Porro + RAN + Mazraoui + Mitoma + VVD + Onana + Odegaard + Young + Aina + Saka + Cunha ⬇️Haaland, Semenyo (if red flag stays), Dunk, Raul, Lewis, Gvardiol, Vardy, ESR, Rogers, Watkins, Neto, White, VdV, Keane, ...

LiveFPL reposted

Replying to @arisfpl.bsky.social

🥇 @livefpl.net - 3/4 rise, 3/5 drop, 1 false positive (VVD), bunch of false negatives. Only one who didn't have Haaland dropping & other 2/5 price drops were at 99%+ 🥈 FPL Statistics - 3/4 rise, 1/5 drop, 0 false positives, TAA & Haaland, bunch other false negatives. Other 4/5 price drops were 99%+

LiveFPL reposted

Replying to @arisfpl.bsky.social

On to the results from today: 🥇 @livefpl.net - 3/3 rises, 3/3 drops, 1 false positive, a bunch of false negatives (similar across all sites). 🥈 FPL Statistics - 2/3 rises, 3/3 drops, 2 false positives, a bunch of false negatives. They had Veltman at 97.5%.

Price Changes (again 100% all rises and falls were predicted by LiveFPL) ⬆️ Salah + Saka + Veltman ⬇️ Diaz + McNeil + Faes Isak is the biggest false positive, didn't rise. Gabriel ended the day at 99.5%.

Price Changes (100% of both risers and fallers were predicted by LiveFPL!) 🔼 Bruno + Cunha + Joao Pedro 🔽 Haaland + Solanke + Raul + Bowen + Sancho + Mateta + Rice + Pau + Mavropanos + O'Reilly

Predicted exactly the three risers✅ Predicted no rise for the likes of Isak, Hojlund, Robinson ✅ Predicted all the falls ✅ Predicted no fall for DCL, Mbeumo, Trossard, Faes ✅ Have some false positive falls (mostly below 1% ownership) ✖️

Early Price Change Predictions (www.livefpl.net/prices): ⬆️ Bruno + Cunha + Joao Pedro. Veltman and Hojlund close ⬇️ Haaland + Solanke + Raul + Diaz + McNeil + Mateta + Rice + Foden + Pau + Bowen + Munoz + many others below 1% ownership.

Appreciate the analysis and hopefully we will keep learning more lessons about the price changes mechanics and get more accurate with time 🙏

Aris@arisfpl.bsky.social

🎖️ MEDALS FOR TODAY 🎖️ VERY clarifying data today 👀. We tallied 🧮 a score by giving 2 pts for correct predictions & -1 for incorrect ones. Two predictors stood head & shoulders above the rest. 🥇 @livefpl.net - 5/5 correct rises, 8/11 correct drops, 1 false rise, 4 false drops - final score of 21

Price Changes ⬆️ Salah + ESR + Murillo + Ait-Nouri + Fabianski (all predicted correctly) ⬇️TAA + Johnson + Duran + Vardy + Akanji + Sinisterra + Lewis + Dibling + Amo Ameyaw + Maddison + Forster

Early predictions based on current transfer trends (www.livefpl.net/prices) 🔼RAN + Fabianski + Salah + Murillo 🔽Vardy + Duran + Lewis + Johnson + Munoz + Mateta + ... Predictions may change. TAA not predicted to drop because of flag. Haaland not predicted either as 2nd fall is difficult

Only Evanilson ⬆️ (We had him at 98.7%) Not the best predictions tonight 🙏 However, TAA did not fall and Haaland did not fall, both confirming some rules we are speculating

LiveFPL@livefpl.net

Early predictions for price changes (livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️ Fabianski. Evanilson will depend on the next few hours ⬇️ Vardy + Duran + Dubravka + Ortega. Keep checking near the price change time as there is a heavy transfer activity going on that could change predictions

Early predictions for price changes (livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️ Fabianski. Evanilson will depend on the next few hours ⬇️ Vardy + Duran + Dubravka + Ortega. Keep checking near the price change time as there is a heavy transfer activity going on that could change predictions

The Haaland Price Change Theory: I am experimenting with a theory that could explain why Haaland didn't drop twice last gameweek (and hence may not drop again before the deadline). Without this theory, he should drop tonight. So we will see how it goes! Here is the theory:

View full thread

Then when the deadline passes, he falls back to category (A) and should fall easily. This happened with Haaland dropping immediately after the deadline but not before despite exceeding the threshold by A LOT. According to this hypothesis, Haaland won't drop until after deadline. Will see!

And for people saying it's just pure manual intervention by FPL towers, why would they allow him to drop right after the deadline then? I think this kind of rule I am proposing is actually FPL's way of intervening for highly owned players making their 2nd fall very hard to happen

The Haaland Price Change Theory: I am experimenting with a theory that could explain why Haaland didn't drop twice last gameweek (and hence may not drop again before the deadline). Without this theory, he should drop tonight. So we will see how it goes! Here is the theory:

Price falls normally work like this: A) If player is above his starting price, to get a fall he needs to lose a fixed number of transfers. B) If player is at or below his starting price, to get a fall he needs to lose a % of his ownership.

The theory is, for the 2nd fall in a GW, all players follow (B) even if they are above their starting price. This means a 1st fall for the likes of Haaland is easy (fixed number needed) but 2nd fall is very difficult (as he has large ownership so % of that is huge).

LiveFPL reposted

Replying to @fplsverige.bsky.social

Well, I've informally tracked this for quite a while and today's outcome was pretty much as I would expect. @livefpl.net has really gotten a handle on some things that Fix & FFH don't. FPL Statistics is also very good, but not as good as Live FPL.

LiveFPL reposted

Medals for Today: Everyone had Pedro. Beyond that, very interesting. 🏅 @livefpl.net - nailed Garner 🥈 FPL Statistics - had Garner at 99.9, but had a handful of others in line for a change Fix and FFH don't get on the podium today. Way too many drops predicted that didn't come to pass

Yes sir 🫡 ⬆️ Joao Pedro ⬇️ Garner All according to plan www.livefpl.net/prices

livefpl.netLiveFPL Price PredictorLiveFPL forecasts the upcoming FPL price changes helping FPL managers maintain a high team value.
LiveFPL@livefpl.net

LiveFPL Price Change Prediction for Tonight (livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️ Joao Pedro ⬇️ A couple of low owned players Duran close to fall, Fabianski close to rise but probably not today Remember to check the link before 1:30 am GMT in case something changes 🙏 Good luck

LiveFPL Price Change Prediction for Tonight (livefpl.net/prices) ⬆️ Joao Pedro ⬇️ A couple of low owned players Duran close to fall, Fabianski close to rise but probably not today Remember to check the link before 1:30 am GMT in case something changes 🙏 Good luck

livefpl.net/prices We're basically predicting no price changes today. Welbeck should be very close to rise though, Duran and Raya close to fall. We don't think any of the following players is close to change soon: Joao Pedro, RAN, Vardy, Lewis, Haaland, Salah

www.livefpl.net/prices (scroll to bottom) I wrote a short piece about my understanding of price changes after toying around with understanding how it works for 3 months now. Not the longest period, but I believe I am now familiar with the main struggles in predicting changes 🙏

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