The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

youtu.beThe US-Canada Trade Conflict and the Midterm Election Campaign in Michigan feat. Dr. Matt GrossmannYouTube video by LISPOP WLU

LISPOP invited Michigan State political scientist, Dr. Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social to open up the black box of a US statewide election campaign at a pivotal time in US-Canadian relations. You can see the full presentation at youtu.be/hqas0k5j42I?...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

lispop.caCould Andy Burnham’s coup from Manchester have taken place in Canada? Not from below, but from the side. – LISPOP

17 Aug

Andy Burnham's coup in the UK would have had to have taken place in a very different way in Canada because of the combination of Canadian regionalism, federalism and Westminister parliaments! #cdnpoli lispop.ca/nexus/could-...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy reposted

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

policyalternatives.caThe numbers don’t lie: The housing crisis is not caused by a supply shortage | CCPAFinancialization, not demographics or supply, caused the cost of housing to explode in Canada.

Recently the @policyalternatives.ca published an article (www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...) arguing that a supply shortage has not caused the housing crisis. #cdnpoli #onpoli @mikepmoffatt.bsky.social @stano.bsky.social

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Obviously corporate power can be a problem, but in our view that is something that has to be demonstrated on a case-by-case basis, rather than assumed. And here, it seems to not really fit the data.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Supply skepticism is a problem in this policy space, because it eliminates an entire basket of policies that would encourage building more homes. Given the severity of the housing crisis, especially for young Canadians, ensuring that solutions actually address the root causes is of utmost importance

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Elmendorf, Nall and Okobdzija (2025) studied the prevalence of supply skepticism and found that a 1/3 of those surveyed believed housing prices would go up if supply increased. Amazingly, the same study found 85% of respondents correctly believed that an influx of used cars would reduce the price

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Another problem is ideology. It’s common on the academic center-left to reject the central premise of macroeconomics that price is a product of supply and demand, preferring instead to emphasize the role of corporate power.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

This analysis of prices, demographic patterns and housing stock reveals that the cause of housing price increases is very much a mismatch between the supply of, and demand for, housing that is appropriate for household formation. So, why is our conclusion so different from the CCPA?

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

By conducting a more nuanced analysis of the same housing data, we have a different conclusion. There are lots of reasons for this. One is a widespread lack of economic literacy.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

We dug through the CREA data that was cited and did not find that prices moved in tandem. If prices were truly moving in tandem, one would expect the increase in both types of housing to increase at the same rate and the gap to remain flat. This was obviously not the case in BC, ON, QC & AB

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Dwelling prices seem to follow a standard economic model of supply and demand: children aging and immigration contributes to demand, particularly in the provinces where there is the greatest economic activity. But construction of family-appropriate homes has plummeted, restricting supply.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

A direct consequence of building fewer single-family homes and more apartments is that the composition of households have shifted away from one-family households in favor of individual, multi-family and roommates residing in a dwelling together. The ratio has shot up from 1:7 to 1:2.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Developers have clearly shifted their focus from building high demand single-family homes to condos. The report argues this is not the case on the evidence that prices of all types of housing (tiny condos to single-family homes) are moving in tandem, which disproves that it is a supply problem.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

pbo-dpb.caHousehold Formation and the Housing Stock

With the decline of single-family homes available, it means that the availability of homes most desirable for families are stifled. The PBO found that the number of Canadian households in 2021 would have been 631,000 higher if attainable housing existed. www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publicati...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The reason that more attainable housing doesn’t exist is because the number of new constructions of single-family homes has steadily declined since 2004, while apartments and other units have been on the rise.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

At first glance, the report shows this graph, which illustrates the number of dwellings per 1k people and adults. Dwellings per 1k adults has remained steady over the last 50 years, while housing prices have obviously dramatically increased.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

There’s a problem here: StatsCan defines a dwelling as any kind of structure that can house people. A massive suburban McMansion and a shoebox condo are both equally dwellings. When we unpacked this data, the number of single-detached homes per 1k adults has been steadily declining since 2000.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

scholars.wlu.caNot All Dwellings Are the Same: Commentary on Ideology, Evidence and Narratives in Canada’s Housing Affordability CrisisBy Matthew Arp and Simon Kiss, Published on 05/01/26

This is a popular narrative, particularly on the centre-left so it is understandable that this circulates. However, we were skeptical of the claims and dug into the data more closely. We published our response at scholars.wlu.ca/lispop/9/.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

wlu.caMyths vs. realities of homelessness: A fact check with Laurier expertsA panel of Laurier researchers dispel common misconceptions about homelessness.

15 May

One of our LISPOP board members, Laura Pin, was recently on a panel of Laurier researchers to dispel common misconceptions about homelessness. Check it out at www.wlu.ca/features/202...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

eventbrite.caThe Authenticity AdvantageThe Authenticity Advantage: Winning Votes, Increasing Trust and Leading Canadians

11 Mar

Join us tomorrow at 11:30am for the presentation "The Authenticity Advantage: Winning Votes, Increasing Trust and Leading Canadians" by the University of Waterloo’s Dr. Anna Esselment Where: DAWB 5-103 When: Thursday 11:30 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. Register: www.eventbrite.ca/e/the-authen...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

scholars.wlu.caPolicy Brief: Affective Polarization in CanadaOn November 6, 2025, The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) hosted Dr. Eric Merkley (University of Toronto) to present the research from his forthcoming book Polariz...

18 Feb

In November, LISPOP hosted @ericmerkley.bsky.social to present research from his forthcoming book, "Polarization, Eh? The Causes and Consequences of Affective Polarization in Canada". We have since compiled a policy brief that outlines the major themes from the event! scholars.wlu.ca/lispop/7/

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

scholars.wlu.caResearching Post-Industrial Political Behaviour With The National Occupation Classification In The 2019 and 2021 Canada Election StudiesIn the following note we describe coding of open-ended responses to respondent occupations in the Canada Election Studies 2019 (phone and online) and 2021 (online). 7904 unique entries were gathered f...

13 Nov 2025

Rafael Campos-Gottardo@rafaelgottardo.bsky.social

In a new @lispop.bsky.social report @sjkiss.bsky.social and I introduce a new dataset which integrates the national occupation classification (NOC) code system into the Canadian Election Study (CES). We coded the occupations of respondents in the 2019 and 2021 CES 1. scholars.wlu.ca/lispop/5/

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

-Composition of the parties: What is the share of respondents who identify with each party? Is there weak partisan attachment? -Demographic changes: Is it party switching or cohort turnover? How to recent immigrants factor in?

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Social media and news: No correlation between social media and polarization? Some reasons: -Social media moderates elite cues -Ideology sorting mediates social media -Social media use correlated with outparty thermometer and partisanship

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The jury is still out? -False polarization: traditional surveys ask opinions on issues -Caricatured enemies: Fringe overestimation effect is that we project fringe issues on out-parties -Social media: Political engagement or opting out -Consumption v. Trust: Do partisans trust the source of media?

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Dr. Juan Morales -Ideological sorting: Opinion change (parties moving on issues) and party switching (sorting according to ideology) -Out parties with three parties: Is the out-party the most ideological distant from the others or are all other parties the out party?

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Solutions and implications -Cross-polarization friendship and discussion -More emphasis on institutions -Benefits of polarization: civic engagement and political participation

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Dr. Anne Wilson: Psychological Reflections and Future Directions -Left-right divide with most Canadians moderate (more rapid on left than right) -Affective polarization cause for concern: political animosity can lead to discrimination, censorship, democratic erosion, violence and dehumanization.

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Claim #3 - Motivational Response -Hostility towards other -Political siloing -Hypocrisy on vital issues

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Research Design -Measuring support for democratic norm violations through six experiments -Norm violations are supported by respondents if punishes opposition party or in favor of own party

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Claim #1: Ideology over social identity -Strong effect of ideology on partisan hostility Claim #2: Power of elites -Parties are polarized, citizens follow through ideological sorting

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Media? -Fragmented media landscape of polarized outlets -Opt-out effect -Mainstream clickbait -Difficulty in self-reported media consumption -Legacy media broadcasters (CBC, Global, CTV) draw most viewership -News consumption isn't driven by partisan outlets

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

"Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" live blog /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

Dr. Merkley presenting his findings from "Polarization, Eh?", his forthcoming book on affective polarization in Canada. Main question: Thermometer ratings for opposition parties is at lowest point in recent history. However, LIB and NDP partisans warming, while worse feelings towards CONs. Why? /2

eventbrite.comSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

3 Nov 2025

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy@lispop.bsky.social

LISPOP will be hosting "Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" feat. Eric Merkley and commentary by Anne Wilson and Juan Morales on November 6 at 11:30am. Register today - www.eventbrite.com/e/social-med...

eventbrite.comSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

eventbrite.caSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

30 Oct 2025

Join us next Thursday, November 6 for our event on political polarization and social media featuring @ericmerkley.bsky.social ! More details can be found at www.eventbrite.ca/e/social-med...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy@lispop.bsky.social

eventbrite.comSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

lispop.caTrump In the Midterm Elections: Public Opinion as a Thermostat – LISPOP

We break down the latest Trump approval numbers compared to other contemporary presidents from @gelliottmorris.com in the context of the 2026 midterm elections. lispop.ca/nexus/trump-... In sum, we find that this is exceptionally informative and gives us pause to evaluate the current situation. /1

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The basic dynamic here is consistent with what is known about the thermostatic model of public opinion developed by Christopher Wlezien (1995). When presidents successfully get partisan legislation adopted , voters subsequently punish the party for going to far (Wlezien 2017). /3

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

With a low starting approval rating and unambiguously conservative policies, it would seem that there are reasons to think the thermometer will swing and that the midterm elections will not be pretty for the Republican Party. This explains the push to gerrymander and election oversight strategy. /4

lispop.caTrump In the Midterm Elections: Public Opinion as a Thermostat – LISPOP

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

While it is not that uncommon for presidential approval to decline throughout their term, the starting point on inauguration day for Trump was much lower (<10%) than his contemporaries. The “normal” pattern for US presidents is to win the popular vote with at least some bipartisan support. /2

eventbrite.comSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

21 Oct 2025

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

eventbrite.caSocial Media and Political Polarization in CanadaThe Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy will host Dr. Eric Merkley, Dr. Anne Wilson and Dr. Juan Morales.

7 Oct 2025

LISPOP will be hosting the forum "Social Media and Political Polarization in Canada: Perspectives from Political Science, Economics and Psychology" on November 6, 2025 at 11:30am. For more details and registration: www.eventbrite.ca/e/social-med...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

eventbrite.caCultivating Justice: Modelling Settler Support for Reconciliation in CanadaDrs. Andrea Perrella and Andrew Basso presenting some of their recent work on Canadian attitudes to reconciliation.

29 Sept 2025

Join us tomorrow, September 30th from 11:30am-1:00pm at Dr. Alvin Woods Building (DAWB) room 4-105 (on the fourth floor) on the Waterloo Laurier Campus. Refreshments will be provided. We look forward to seeing you then! If you haven't registered yet - www.eventbrite.ca/e/cultivatin...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy@lispop.bsky.social

On the National Day of Truth and Reconciliation join Drs. Andrea Perrella and Andrew Basso, who will be presenting some of their recent work on Canadian attitudes to reconciliation. Join us from 11:30a-1:00p on September 30 at DAWB 4-105 Register today! www.eventbrite.ca/e/cultivatin...

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

25 Sept 2025