LeRaffl

15 Sept

Major UI upgrade to the BEV Transition Trajectory Gallery - plus a big expansion of Truck and Bus data. Release notes below. 👇 leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇻🇳 Vietnam - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 46.3% BEV 4.3% Hybrid 49.4% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 43.7% BEV 3.2% Hybrid 53.1% ICE

🇻🇳 Vietnam - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +11.3pp BEV (32.3% → 43.7%) +0.9pp Hybrid (2.3% → 3.2%) −12.2pp ICE (65.4% → 53.1%)

The expected time from 20% to 80% has stretched to a bit over 4 years, and that number has been getting longer, not shorter. It's an extrapolation, not a prophecy.

🇻🇳 Vietnam - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 46.3% BEV 4.3% Hybrid 49.4% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 43.7% BEV 3.2% Hybrid 53.1% ICE

Vietnam, first look. In here: VAMA's members, VinFast, and Hyundai. That should be the market the local press adds up, minus trucks and vans.

The BEV line is basically VinFast. Hyundai publishes no fuel split, so it counts as ICE. Imports outside that group are one row, no brand, no fuel. About a tenth of September, and any EV in there is not in the 46.3%.

17h

What you're seeing here is the equivalent of about 780 TWh of primary energy being saved without the global car fleet shrinking a single unit in the next 10 years. It's my best guess at what the distribution of global cars on the road will look like going forward.

And that's the next 10 years, and only from the 34 countries in my set and it's even the worst case scenario that assumes nobody accelerates the BEV transition of cleans up their grid. It also doesn't include heavy trucks, heating or industrial processes.

17h

About 23,000 MtCO₂e is what we need to save in that timeframe globally, but this is a worst case and only one that is about passenger cars. We can do this people! It will be hard, oh so very fucking hard ... but it IS achievable!

That's about the same as - ~10 nuclear reactors worth of primary energy equivalent savings - 500 MtCO₂e saved - 4 to 5 days of global oil demand

leraffl.github.ioBEV TrajectoriesBEV registration trajectories per country.

BEV Trajectory Gallery – what's new (19–26 Oct) 🧵 🚗 Fleet tab: 12 → 34 countries (Eurostat) 📈 New view: BEV% per country, with start-year selector 🇻🇳 Vietnam added: VAMA + VinFast + TC Group leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🏷️ Labels & footnotes • "First registrations" for Georgia/Albania, "new sales"/"new imports" where sources count those • Used-car footnotes for Austria (Resale, not imports), Netherlands, Paraguay • India: HEV includes mild hybrids • Footnotes condensed to at-a-glance caveats

⚙️ CI • All R steps run in a prebuilt Docker image • Node 24 actions, runners pinned to Ubuntu 24.04, plus a canary job

leraffl.github.ioBEV TrajectoriesBEV registration trajectories per country.

🔧 Under the hood (12–26 Oct) 📥 Sources • Estonia, Latvia, Belgium: national registers (Transpordiamet, CSDD, DIV) replace ACEA as primary source • New: South Africa (naamsa quarterly reviews) • Latvia's CSDD is fetched through an EU relay

🛠️ Pipeline • ACEA fetcher waits on "not published yet" pages instead of failing • ACEA CV: fuel restatements carried back instead of negatives • Periods with 0 total no longer enter the curve fit • Source pages can show a reconciliation vs. the source's own totals • Backtests refit for EE, LV, BE

leraffl.github.ioBEV TrajectoriesBEV registration trajectories per country.

🗺️ Map • Blue / Classic palette switch • Animated GIF download • New "Volatile curve" pill – and "Too volatile to show" instead of a misleading fit 🏆 Rankings: region filter (EU, Europe, …) on Thresholds, Durations and Time Interval

🔧 Data fixes • Colombia: 2026-09 filled • Malta: 7 missing months filled, fuel columns corrected • Iceland: 2019 estimated split didn't sum to 100% • Denmark fleet: stock rows were one year late

🇷🇴 Romania - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 7.9% BEV 55.5% Hybrid 36.6% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 7.8% BEV 54.4% Hybrid 37.8% ICE

🇷🇴 Romania - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +2.4pp BEV (5.4% → 7.8%) +6.7pp HEV (47.7% → 54.4%) −9.1pp ICE (46.9% → 37.8%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would overtake ICE in 2029-03.

The big shift in Romania is the shift towards Hybrids at the moment. Remember that it goes ICE -> Hybrid -> BEV. Romania is simply caught in the middle of this right now.

🇷🇴 Romania - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 7.9% BEV 55.5% Hybrid 36.6% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 7.8% BEV 54.4% Hybrid 37.8% ICE

Also this is only a thing in this form since about 2 years or so ago, where before the bonus existed but was calculated differently and could end up giving you 10,000 EUR instead of 3,700 EUR. Add that to the economic situation back then and you end up with ... well with this graphic.

Plug-ins are counted in the Hybrid pot, which is currently ~55% of the market.

🇷🇴 Romania - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 7.9% BEV 55.5% Hybrid 36.6% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 7.8% BEV 54.4% Hybrid 37.8% ICE

Romania's BEV share is climbing back. The TTM bottomed at 5.3% in mid-2025 and is now at 7.8%.

September's 7.9% is the best September since 2023. Rabla, the "cash-for-clunkers" scrappage bonus gives ~3700 EUR if you trade in an old car and buy a BEV. You also get ~2000 EUR for a Gasoline car (not Diesel!) and something in between for Hybrids, but still.

How does the D-A-CH region compare? 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭 🇩🇪 Germany and 🇦🇹 Austria are on practically the same BEV trajectory for new cars. 50% around early 2031, 80% around August 2037.

🇨🇭 Switzerland is slightly faster. 50% around July 2030, 80% around August 2036. That's about half a year ahead at 50% and a full year at 80%. It's a model guys, not a prophecy.

🇺🇸 USA - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.8% BEV 1.4% PHEV 91.8% ICE (of which 15.5%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.0% BEV 1.1% PHEV 92.9% ICE (of which 15.1%p were HEV)

🇺🇸 USA - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 −2.4pp BEV (8.4% → 6.0%) −0.8pp PHEV (1.9% → 1.1%) +2.9pp HEV (12.2% → 15.1%) +0.3pp ICE (77.5% → 77.8%) PHEV peaked at 2.1% in 2024-11 (declining for 22 months).

The expected-time curves are still climbing. The trailing 12 months BEV share fell too, from 6.3% to 6.0% this time after it came from 6.7% in Aug25-Jul26. I worry about the USA (Japan too), which is kinda odd, given Tesla sits there. One manufacturer does not fix a market that size I suppose.

🇺🇸 USA - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.8% BEV 1.4% PHEV 91.8% ICE (of which 15.5%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.0% BEV 1.1% PHEV 92.9% ICE (of which 15.1%p were HEV)

This is probably less bad than it looks. A few things are in here that the other charts leave out, pickups especially. Pretty specific to the US, and they can't be split out. Still doesn't look good.

🇭🇷 Croatia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 3.5% BEV 14.2% PHEV 82.3% ICE (of which 41.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 4.2% BEV 7.1% PHEV 88.8% ICE (of which 38.7%p were HEV)

PHEV had a massive month in Croatia: 14.2%, a record and more than double last September's 5.8%.

That's mostly one car. The Geely Starray EM-i, on a promo price of €29,990, was Croatia's best-selling car in September with 224 registrations, ahead of the Octavia. About a third of all PHEVs. BEV meanwhile is stuck around 4%.

🇭🇷 Croatia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 3.5% BEV 14.2% PHEV 82.3% ICE (of which 41.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 4.2% BEV 7.1% PHEV 88.8% ICE (of which 38.7%p were HEV)

🇭🇷 Croatia - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +2.7pp BEV (1.5% → 4.2%) +3.9pp PHEV (3.1% → 7.1%) +6.4pp HEV (32.3% → 38.7%) −13.0pp ICE (63.1% → 50.1%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would overtake ICE in 2028-10.

Who sells what in the Netherlands? 🇳🇱 Brands and models of used imports. Used is far behind new: BEV is 7.2% of used imports vs 45.2% of new cars (last 12 months). BEV: Audi 11.6%, Tesla 9.0%, VW 7.8%. Top model Fiat 500 (6.6%). September: the 500 alone 283 of 2,733.

PHEV is 32.9% of used imports. Last 12 months: Volvo 13.0%, BMW 12.3%, Audi 11.1%. Top models: Ford Kuga and Lynk & Co 01. September: Volvo 940, Audi 933, VW 915. Kuga top model with 540.

@electric-nick.bsky.social

Petrol is 55.7% of used imports. Hybrids are counted under petrol in this data, so no separate HEV table yet. Last 12 months: VW 17.8%, Toyota 10.9%. Polo, Golf, Yaris Cross on top. September: VW 18.9%, Polo 619 units.

LeRaffl reposted

Electric Nick

Where are BEVs ⚡ sold in Europe? Germany 🇩🇪, the UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 are the top three markets so far this year, accounting for 1,446,433 units or 56.7% of the total. Top 10 combined: 2,210,632 units or 86.7%.

🇸🇮 Slovenia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 23.2% BEV 4.6% PHEV 72.3% ICE (of which 16.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 18.9% BEV 3.7% PHEV 77.4% ICE (of which 17.2%p were HEV)

🇸🇮 Slovenia - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +9.6pp BEV (9.3% → 18.9%) +0.4pp PHEV (3.3% → 3.7%) +4.9pp HEV (12.3% → 17.2%) −15.0pp ICE (75.2% → 60.2%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2028-02.

Transition time is still dropping fast. In spring the expected time from 20% to 80% BEV was above 12 years, now it's 6 years 9 months. The next months will show how much of that sticks without subsidies, but subsidies work far better if they exist longer sooooo...

🇸🇮 Slovenia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 23.2% BEV 4.6% PHEV 72.3% ICE (of which 16.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 18.9% BEV 3.7% PHEV 77.4% ICE (of which 17.2%p were HEV)

23.2% BEV in Slovenia in September. Down from the record 33.3% in August, but still 8pp above last September. Year to date BEV is at 19.8%, double the 10.0% of 2025.

The summer peak wasn't entirely natural though. Buyers got up to €7,800 per new BEV since June. That money is used up now and the government says there won't be another round. September already shows a bit of the 'hangover'.

🇭🇺 Hungary - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.8% BEV 11.3% PHEV 78.9% ICE (of which 48.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 9.5% BEV 8.7% PHEV 81.9% ICE (of which 50.4%p were HEV)

The trajectory is meh, about 42 years from 20% to 80% BEV. The outlook is better: BYD starts series production of the Dolphin Surf in Szeged this quarter, and BMW has been building the iX3 in Debrecen since early 2026.

Built in Hungary doesn't mean sold in Hungary, the iX3 hasn't moved the share so far. A cheap small BEV made in the country might.

🇭🇺 Hungary - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.8% BEV 11.3% PHEV 78.9% ICE (of which 48.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 9.5% BEV 8.7% PHEV 81.9% ICE (of which 50.4%p were HEV)

PHEV grows faster: 11.3% is a record, and PHEV is ahead of BEV for the third month in a row. Half the market is still HEV.

🇭🇺 Hungary - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +1.6pp BEV (7.8% → 9.5%) +4.0pp PHEV (4.7% → 8.7%) +0.4pp HEV (50.0% → 50.4%) −6.0pp ICE (37.4% → 31.4%) HEV peaked at 50.9% in 2026-03 (declining for 6 months).

🇭🇺 Hungary - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.8% BEV 11.3% PHEV 78.9% ICE (of which 48.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 9.5% BEV 8.7% PHEV 81.9% ICE (of which 50.4%p were HEV)