Josh Pasek

Josh Pasek

@joshpasek.com

Prof of Comm and Polisci @UMich studying how people get & use political information and social measurement. Competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI literacy (views=own, overuses speech2text)

5.3K followers2K following900 posts

Josh Pasek reposted

My new JOD piece arguing against the “cure polarization” approach to saving democracy.

Journal of Democracy@jodemocracy.bsky.social

Americans have never been angrier with one another. But polarization is not the disease—it is the response to a revanchist movement seeking to roll back sixty years of social progress. 🆕 by @lilymasonphd.bsky.social muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

And if you are not on campus, check out our #teachout on what democracy is, how it really works, and what it takes to keep it: www.coursera.org/learn/democr...

coursera.orgTeach-Out® Democracy and Civic EngagementOffered by University of Michigan. Democracy shapes the decisions that affect our communities and day-to-day lives, yet many people have ... Enroll for free.
Josh Pasek@joshpasek.com

We are hosting #DemocracyWeek here at @umich.edu -- Hosting a series of amazing events all week across campus to highlight what Democracy means and why it matters: democracyweek.umich.edu

Are you sure its not just a very literal understanding of jaw dropping - you see the two times that you really do drop your jaw is when you have to open your mouth to eat and when you finally get to relax into a bed.

Dan Sohege@danielsohege.bsky.social

I can only, personally, assume that Jon King and the Express editors are now actively supporting far right violence when they consider pillows, bedding and toilet rolls as "jaw dropping" to provide to people seeking safety after fleeing war and persecution.

Josh Pasek reposted

Sweet Jesus, watch this until the end. After he says "what's new?" it's like he realizes that he's sold off the last bits of his integrity and there's just no point to talking anymore.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Cassidy: "I will vote for Mr Blanche. I will be criticized for this vote. What's new?"

The big problem though is that weighted inferential statistics are no longer BLUE - there are reasonable approaches to figuring out how big and consistent the difference is after weighting, but I very rarely see them used. Running the weighted regression, however, is usually not appropriate.

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Josh Pasek reposted

🚨New Cambridge Element🚨 "American Presidential Campaigns in the Attention Economy" by @cerenbudak.bsky.social, Jonathan M. Ladd, @joshpasek.com, Lisa Singh and Michael W. Traugott, part of the Campaigns and Elections series, is out now and #OpenAccess https://cup.org/4bvBXUg #PoliSky #Elections

cup.orgAmerican Presidential Campaigns in the Attention EconomyCambridge Core - American Studies - American Presidential Campaigns in the Attention Economy

Just to be clear, this is what happens in a town that prides itself as being liberal when the DSA candidate is also the NIMBY candidate.

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social

Michigan - Ann Arbor Mayoral Primary: Rabhi: 51% (DSA Endorsed) Taylor: 38% Data for Progress / July 20, 2026

Josh Pasek reposted

The critical question of US politics right now is whether the reticence of normally solid Republican voters to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters signals a general disengagement with politics (and thus low turnout in November), or is limited to polling.

Josh Pasek reposted

“Prebunking” has been found to be very effective in neutralizing disinformation

capitolhunters@capitolhunters.bsky.social

Journalists: please, please get ready for this in ADVANCE. We know Trump's going to claim "new evidence shows the 2020 election was stolen". You've got 3 days to write a story that confronts that lie head-on before he says it - pre-write this like an obit. America is begging you: plan ahead. 1/

“Weaponized his vehicle” sounds like the ICE version of “It’s coming right at us” www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr0b...

youtube.comHow To Get Around Hunting Laws - SOUTH PARKYouTube video by South Park Studios
Eric Umansky@ericumansky.bsky.social

ICE agents under Trump have shot at least 20 people who were inside their cars They did it again today, killing a father ICE said he "weaponized his vehicle" -- a claim they've often made & that often has turned out to be BS. The FBI is investigating...the dad. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/u...

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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21/ So what view of society does it imply? One: - Where rights supersede government - Where people are the ultimate arbiters - Where religious and political authority are separate - Where status as a peoplehood and citizenship are not about ancestry - Where justice is independent of power

22/22 Obviously, the country has fallen short on these ideals an incredible number of times. But if the view of the declaration is that it should serve as the country's mission statement, we might want to pay more attention to what it distinctly does not say about American citizenship & government.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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19/ “He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither…” Foreigners should be able to become citizens. Growth via immigration is treated as a public good.

20/ And finally, “In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress…” It is only legitimate to claim a right to independence after working through other channels.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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17/ “For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent…” Taxes require legitimate political authority, and consent is what makes them legitimate. So the ability of government to compel things depends on its accountability.

18/ “For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury…” “For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried…” Justice needs to remain accountable to the community it serves.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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15/ “He has obstructed the Administration of Justice…” “He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone…” Judges must be independent of the executive.

16/ “He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies…” “He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.” Civil leaders should be in charge, not the military.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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13/ “He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.” Basically, the executive should not overrule the laws of the people (produced by the legislature).

14/ “He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly…” Government without representation isn’t merely bad policy. It’s illegitimate.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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11/ “Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes…” Revolutions should be rare, only when other methods have proved insufficient to address grievances.

12/ Now the grievances begin. But where these are usually framed as “What sins did George commit as a ruler?” Ask another question: “If this is a fundamental abuse, what does that mean about what good government should look like?”

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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9/ “…endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…” Where do rights come from? The Creator—not government. But notice as well the choice not to refer to any specific theological doctrine nor to any religious establishment.

10/ “…Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…” "…it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it…” But unlike rights, the authority of government comes from people.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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7/ “We hold these truths to be self-evident…” The appeal is to shared human reason, not to revelation or any particular form of authority or faith. The presumption is that anyone can recognize them.

8/ “…all men are created equal…” We all know this line because it was downright revolutionary as a political claim at the time.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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5/ “…to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station…” Independence was a claim to equal standing, not some kind of superiority (or later exceptionalism). And the rationale is that free peoples possess equal standing among nations.

6/ “…the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God…” An extraordinarily broad phrasing that applies across Christians, deists, and Enlightenment natural-law thinkers, but does not ground itself in any particular church.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

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3/ These distinctions become clear when you look at what the declaration says and what it conspicuously does not say. “When in the Course of human events…” It doesn't begin with America or England or Christianity or Church. This is a universal human story, not only one group's.

4/ "...it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve..." Where most founding narratives begin with a particular group, often with a particular divine or historical mandate, this is again framed as a broader norm. The nation is presented as a political community, not an ethnic one.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

2/ Key ideas: declaration uses careful words to paint some really interesting distinctions, in ways that challenged thinking at the time & have some interesting implications today. It conceptually separates nation from ethnicity. Government from monarchy. Rights from government. & God from church.

There’s something quite fitting and ironic about celebrating the nation’s 250th birthday with a two day long power outage. An inspiring anniversary dashed by degraded infrastructure…

Just inadvertently discovered that a whole bunch of research on AI responses may be invalid. Apparently, even with memory off, ChatGPT is still giving contextual information, including the name of the user! It used my full name casually in conversation; which means that data is in the model.

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This also has huge implications for the potential for racial bias, as users’ names might end up differentially, weighting different responses and textual styles or even information for people whose names are ethically or racially coded.

And it means there’s a potential that an AI conversation without personal identifiers will be incorporated into the learning system in a way that is personalized, both because potential that the AI mentions a real name like it did for me or because of differential weights.

Just inadvertently discovered that a whole bunch of research on AI responses may be invalid. Apparently, even with memory off, ChatGPT is still giving contextual information, including the name of the user! It used my full name casually in conversation; which means that data is in the model.

The fact that memory-off AI is being given personalized contextual data is not only a massive violation of user privacy, but also makes it very difficult to psychologically study AI responses, if they can be uniquely impacted by whose account is putting in the query.

To clarify why this is a big deal, the way that AI works is that anything put in the prompt changes the weights and thus the likelihood of certain responses in the output. If there’s no information about someone on the web, these changes should be small, but if so, responses can differ drastically.

Or maybe it’s his goal: Recall that “Third World” as a term was developed to refer to unaligned nations in the Cold War And Yugoslavia was the original “Third World” country Now, somehow, 2/3 of the official residents of the White House have Slovenian citizenship!

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social

no sign of racial animus here, no sirree from less than two weeks ago