John Sugden

John Sugden

@johnsug.bsky.social

Armchair analytics for ultramarathons I'll likely never run

738 followers13 following92 posts

My old stats; doesn't really bode well if no one has finished loop one yet (historically, only 4% of runners who finished loop 1 after 9 hours would go on to finish all 5 loops) #bm100

#bm100 cutoffs Conch: Feb 14 5:00 am ET Start: Feb 14 6:00 am ET Loop 1 cutoff: Feb 14 7:20 pm / 19:20 ET Loop 2 cutoff: Feb 15 8:40 am ET Loop 3 cutoff: Feb 15 6:00 pm / 18:00 ET Fun Run cutoff: Feb 15 10:00 pm / 22:00 ET Loop 4 cutoff: Feb 16 6:00 am ET Loop 5 cutoff: Feb 16 6:00 pm / 18:00 ET

random #bm100 maths; for Tomo to go onto loop 3, he'd need a loop 3 time of 11:27:10; his prior loop 3 finishes were 15:13:08, 13:08:46, and 12:34:22, so this would be a bit of a stretch. However, he has a leisurely 15:27:10 to complete a fun run -- totally do-able. 1/2

For John Kelly to go to Loop 4, he'd need to finish in 10:59:20. His prior loop 3 finishes (in likely better years) were 12:12:49, 12:24:25, 12:39:59, 15:52:08, 11:56:59, and 12:09:08. I'm skeptical about him completing an 11 hour loop, but he has lots of margin (14:59:20) to go for a fun run 2/2

I forgot Sébastien Raichon raced last year; it took him 13:29:13 to complete loop 3; he'd have to complete loop 3 again in 14:30:45 for a fun run this year 3/2 (oops, I guess people usually write out their multi-thread posts first)

It's hard to update the tracker when we don't know which six runners are still out there, but the best update I can do it this: The #bm100 has been on-going for 23+ hours now. Since 1998, only 26% of runners who took over 23 hours to finish loop 2 even made it to a fun run :/