Jasmin Mujanović

I am going to assume that the vast majority of people following me on this app likely already know my work but on the off chance that you don’t: I write about the Balkans and international relations, democratization and authoritarianism. I try to stay in my lane beyond that. Cheers!

NEW: The would-be democrats of Serbia’s Student List find themselves in a bind: Their aspirations to remake the country’s political order depend, in part, on the support of some of the region’s most reactionary elements, writes @jasminmuj.bsky.social for @newlinesmag.bsky.social

The Student List has ousted Vucic. In part by mobilizing a heterodox coalition which depends on the support of some of the most reactionary elements in the region. In @newlinesmag.bsky.social I write how Serbia’s new reformers find themselves in a familiar bind. newlinesmag.com/running-note...

Indeed, most regional capitals would dearly welcome a Serbia that is completely uninterested in its neighborhood.

If there is to be a regional 'viral' effect from Serbia's elections, it is (sadly) not likely in Bosnia's RS entity. It's Albania where PM Rama is facing off against the most protracted opposition to his own increasingly illiberal rule since coming to power in 2013.

At the basic mechanical level, the story of Serbia's elections, as those in Brazil, as those in Hungary, is turnout, turnout, turnout. Those who want to defend democracy must, above all, show up. That is the lesson. My short analysis for @odgovor.bsky.social. odgovor.ba/article/28410/

I felt strongly already in 2024, in a way that I could not fully rationally articulate even to myself, that the global far-right tide which had begun in 2015-2016 was far closer to its end than its beginning. In 2026, I believe we have definitive proof of its ebb. Slow, uneven, but clear.

Unofficial preliminary results from Serbia's independent elections observers shows the Student List just below 51.5% of the popular vote. Vucic himself has claimed the List will end up with some 135-140 MPs, enough for a stable majority government.

Bosnian Serb secessionist leader Dodik secured U.S. sanctions relief in October 2025 but in 2026 he appears to have lost his two chief patrons: Orban and Vucic. Even with his SNSD’s re-election weeks ago in Bosnia, this is a disastrous turn of events for the Banja Luka regime.

I do not at foreclose the possibility of various sorts of political shenanigans even after Vucic’s concession but this extraordinary result in Serbia is what happens when people show up: in the streets, at the ballot box. That’s the lesson. If you care about democracy, show up.

Vucic concedes defeat. The true scale of the Student List victory remains to be seen — but this a political earthquake for the Western Balkans. Sincere congratulations to the citizens of Serbia who held out hope against hope and mobilized in extraordinary numbers.

I don't know who needs to hear this but please do not bet on the Serbian elections, for your own sake. This is not going to be free and fair vote, that much is clear already, and the likeliest outcome is you getting fleeced.

Whatever happens tonight, Serbians deserves credit for engaging in the democratic process. That they are continuing to participate despite obvious efforts by the Vucic regime to stymie their rights is an indictment of the culture of defeatism in other parts of the region.

Turnout in Serbia running ahead of the 2022 elections at the same time but numerous incidents, including at least one physical assault outside a polling station, have been reported around the country. In principle, strong turnout should favor opposition. www.danas.rs/vesti/politi...

That Vucic had decided to center Islamophobia in the closing hours of Serbia’s electoral campaign is also further proof - as if it was needed after the state sponsored Mladic funeral - that he remains exactly the same person he was in the 90s: a virulent, violent extremist.

Obviously all of these American and European far-right influencers were brought in by the Serbian regime ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. But who actually directed the operation, and how much these individuals were paid, is still worth investigating.

Folks used to think Elon Musk is a real life Tony Stark. No, but he may be a real life Lex Luthor.

Some of the clearest evidence to date how toxic Dodik's money is becoming in DC: "Chris LaCivita and James Blair have donated their six-figure consulting fees from a controversial side-hustle in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Trump’s presidential library." nypost.com/2026/10/22/u...

Vucic will not allow for fair elections in Serbia, precisely because of the significant public support enjoyed by the Student List. The likeliest outcome of Sunday's vote is thus a contested result, still larger anti-regime mobilizations, but also more violence in the streets.

I was pleased to contribute to the @helsinkicomm.bsky.social's podcast re: the recent BiH elections, and the upcoming Serbian elections, with my associate Amanda Thorpe. We both stress the key role of the US Congress in shaping Washington's approach to the region. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEo...

An extraordinary number of high-profile far-right influencers from US and EU in Serbia, stumping for the Russia-China backed Vucic regime, days ahead of the country’s historic Oct 25 elections. Vucic’s alignments - Putin, Xi, soft serve fascists - tell you the story.

According to Politico, Serbia’s state-owned telecom firm has the single largest lobbying contract in Washington, DC. Telekom Srbija is a chief influence vehicle of the Vucic regime in the Balkans and has deep, robust commercial ties with China’s Huawei.

International politics does not get simpler than Russia's war against Ukraine. An autocratic, imperialist regime twice invades a peaceful, democratic neighbor because it will not capitulate to foreign domination. That's what it was in 2014, that's what it is still today.

This is the direct donation link to refurbish the Sarajevo Ashkenazi Synagogue. Select any one of the large three "Hamsa" tabs; you will be provided with English instructions to initiate an international wire transfer. I did so moments ago, and had zero issues with my bank. jzbih.ba/obnova-krova...

A timely appeal by Arminka Helic for funds to refurbish the historic Ashkenazi synagogue in Sarajevo. MP Gratz has already initiated legislative action but greater attention needed from local authorities. This article contains donation info you can follow. www.thejc.com/news/world/r...

“The rules on the financing of political parties in [BiH] prohibit parties from receiving contributions, including free services, from foreign legal entities, even through intermediaries. The rules also prohibit the misuse of public funds in…campaigns.” balkaninsight.com/2026/10/21/t...

“A Serbian prosecutor who investigated the authorities’ allegedly illegal scheme to help the Trumps build a tower in Belgrade has been targeted with advanced spyware, expert analysis indicates.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

“Washington’s lifting of sanctions on the Bosnian Serb leader [Dodik] left him free to pursue closer ties to Russia without restrictions – effectively giving Moscow veto powers over Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future.” balkaninsight.com/2026/10/20/u...

Only days ahead of historic elections in Serbia, CPAC announces its first Balkans event, centering the country’s Beijing and Moscow backed strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic who has spent much of the past two years repressing peaceful anti-government protests.

The Moscow-Beijing backed Serb secessionist regime in Bosnia’s RS entity - one of the poorest regions in Europe - has again increased its lobbying budget to nearly $40 million, almost the whole of which is going to U.S.-based operatives. All of it Bosnian taxpayer $$$. capital.ba/srpska-povec...

Bosnian media have identified White House-linked operatives Alex Garcia, James Blair, Andrew H. Smith, and (apparently) Chris LaCivita in photos of a pre-election rally of Sino-Russian backed secessionist regime in Bosnia which hired them, as NYT reported. detektor.ba/2026/10/19/t...