JamesInTurkey.com

14 Apr 2025

Parliamentary arithmetic still matters. A reminder that Turkey's governing party does not have a majority, and its de facto coalition does not wield a three-fifths majority in the Grand National Assembly. You need the latter to change the constitution or call an early election.

How an opposition news channel in Turkey mysteriously ended its broadcast about the latest financial scandal and switched, during the breakfast show hour, to scenes boasting the Turkish countryside. Halk TV has state-appointed administrators this morning.

23 Sept

Ankara’s mayor has made his move. He leaves the CHP – the party that embraced him more than 16 years ago – and vows to sit as an independent, saying his first responsibility is to the voters who elected him.

Remarkably, no one appears to be especially angry about this resignation. Özgür Özel suggested he sanctioned the move (and presumably the failure to switch to the New Party). Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said Yavaş should have stayed, but still spoke flatteringly of him.

23 Sept

So what does this do for Mansur Yavaş’s poorly-concealed ambition to succeed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as president? For now, very little: today simply sustains the middle-of-the-road path that the mayor of Ankara has been forging for himself for years. But he remains a contender.

He hasn’t joined Özgür Özel’s New Party – a decision already being portrayed in pro-government circles as a sign of further divisions in the opposition. The reality is more nuanced: the opposition is having to find ways to stick together without being card-carrying members.

ft.com‘It’s now or never.’ Is the EU serious about letting in new members?Candidate countries hope for progress after years of inaction, but some in Brussels are still uncertain about enlargement

23 Sept

His departure this morning is in part a show of force: eight Ankara district mayors, albeit in more rural areas, have left the CHP along with him. Many were picked by Mansur Yavaş himself. It’s notable given others have already switched to the AK Party, allegedly to avoid arrest.

JamesInTurkey.com reposted

Michael Sercan Daventry

@michaeldaventry.com

7 Aug

This long analysis about the EU’s enlargement prospects by @henryjfoy.ft.com and Martin Dunai is fascinating – not least because it mentions the EU’s longest-standing candidate country, Turkey, precisely once. www.ft.com/content/f8fc...

aa.com.trBir kez daha erken seçim tartışması üzerineGenel olarak içinde bulunduğumuz dönemde dünyada ve bölgedeki tüm gelişmelere rağmen Türkiye, siyasal sistemin işleyişi açısından olağanüstü bir durum içinde değildir. | Anadolu Ajansı

15 June

"President Erdoğan has no need to become president again, but Turkey does need President Erdoğan to become a candidate one more time." The biggest indication yet from major aide Mehmet Uçum that Erdoğan's team is preparing the ground for a fourth term www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/bi...

22 May

It is the day after the night before and the anger at Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been visceral: we’ve seen instances of his portrait being torn down in party offices, of crowds chanting “Traitor Kemal”. According to some reports today, he’s been left rather upset by it all.

Critics also point out he has made little effort to engage with the CHP membership or voter base – and that his media interviews have largely been on pro-government channels – outlets which, ironically, shunned him when he actually was leader of the opposition.

22 May

We haven’t seen much of Kılıçdaroğlu today, apart from appointing a press secretary. The Özgür Özel camp, meanwhile, has launched a legal challenge at the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) which, they argue, certified the 2023 leadership vote and are the only ones who can annul it.

No one disputes Kılıçdaroğlu is a mild-mannered man. He reasons he’s acting in the party’s best interests by accepting a role he suggests is being thrust upon him – and that he’s best-placed to steer the CHP through this period of turbulence. Could the quiet man not have a point?

22 May

His critics say Kılıçdaroğlu’s deeds, not his words, show that he is no elder statesman for the party. He once marched from Ankara to Istanbul to protest against Turkey’s politicised judiciary, they say, so why now support a court decision that happens to put him back in office?

That triggers the question being asked by many who have been left bewildered by Kılıçdaroğlu and his motives in recent years: is he really a “traitor” – or is he being astonishingly naive?

So, what happens now? The latest in a long string of court rulings against Turkey's main opposition party is an order to remove the party's leader, Özgür Özel. Is he still in office – and is the country heading for early elections?

It's been suggested this might be a prime opportunity to call an early general election, at a time when the legal ructions surrounding CHP could pervent the party from standing candidates and its presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu remains behind bars.

Özel has previously admitted an entirely separate political party is being kept effectively in reserve – in case the CHP is shut down. But what to do if he is permanently shut out of the party, and is accused of splitting the vote on the Turkish centre-left?

Ankara's mayor Mansur Yavaş says part of the response to the court should be another CHP leadership election – to get the party machinery to reconfirm Özel in office. That's something that's already been done three times since Kılıçdaroğlu lost in 2023.

Whether Özel can lawfully call an extraordinary congress, the mechanism for an impromptu leadership election, remains unclear. Other courts may rule against him and his team. The CHP could swim in legal limbo for months.

The financial markets appear to have made up their minds. Turkey's stock market triggered a circuit breaker after plummeting by 6%. Bloomberg says $6 billion has been spent in the last few hours to defend the lira.

This is also yet another chapter in the bewildering tale of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Turkish politician who was compared to Mahatma Gandhi when he took office in 2010, but is these days regarded by many CHP members as a puppet of the Erdoğan regime. He denies the latter claim.

The government's view is that this case demonstrates the strength of Turkish democracy. The justice minister appeared in front of TV cameras this evening to point out that the route to appeal is open. He argues the case was brought by CHP members and shaped by their statements.

That is true: the case has been brought by CHP people, figures close to Kılıçdaroğlu who claim the 2023 leadership election was rigged against him. But it is also true that no one has yet been convicted on those charges, and that is why Team Özel claims today's ruling is a fix.

First, the legalities. Today's court ruling is provisional, meaning the decision to remove Özel is NOT final. As with most cases of this kind, the decision needs to be confirmed by a higher court. But the reinstatement of Kılıçdaroğlu as a temporary measure is, well, unusual.

Second, the realities. Özel has been dethroned but -- tonight, at least -- he's still running the show. The word is that Kılıçdaroğlu has told his indeterminate number of supporters to abstain from celebrations. His lawyer says he plans to ring Özel up for a chat.

JamesInTurkey.com reposted

Michael Sercan Daventry

@michaeldaventry.com

15 Feb

A pro-Kurdish demonstration in central London, complete with flags of Abdullah Öcalan, the YPG, the federated Iraqi region of Kurdistan – but not, as was so often the case in previous years, the PKK.

10 Feb

In a pretty stunning move, President Erdoğan has tonight appointed Istanbul’s chief prosecutor Akın Gürlek – the man who led many of the judicial cases against the opposition’s jailed presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu – as his new justice minister.

Also gone tonight is the interior minister Ali Yerlikaya. Those close to the government are making much of the fact he is the first hafız – someone who can recite the Koran from memory – in the role.

10 Feb

But it’s the justice role that will get the Kremlinologists speculating. Is Gürlek’s new job a reward for the cases he led in Istanbul, or an effort to put some distance between him and them?

It’s a remarkable appointment because of Gürlek’s links not only to the İmamoğlu case, but to countless others involving high profile broadcasters, actors’ agents, sporting club directors… The Istanbul chief prosecutor has not shied away from the limelight over the past year.

3 May 2025

Sırrı Süreyya Önder died this afternoon of multiple organ failure, after spending nearly three weeks critically ill in hospital following emergency heart surgery. A huge loss for parliament, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party – and the peace process.

JamesInTurkey.com@jamesinturkey.com

Sırrı Süreyya Önder, one of the most recognised pro-Kurdish politicians in Turkey and member of the delegation holding talks with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, has been rushed to hospital tonight with a suspected tear to a heart valve. His party says his condition is serious.

JamesInTurkey.com reposted

Michael Sercan Daventry

@michaeldaventry.com

23 Apr 2025

You don't really need subtitles to see how well presenter Meltem Bozbeyoğlu handles the moment a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul struck live on CNN Türk, but here they are in any case.

23 Apr 2025

Today’s the Turkish parliament’s 105th anniversary. Some, like independence war veteran Rauf Orbay below, believe this – and not 29 October 1923 – is Turkey’s true birthday. It was since then, he argues, that the country operated as a republic. Either way, happy birthday 🇹🇷

turkeyrecap.comWebcast: Sizing up CHP protests with James in Turkey - aka Michael Sercan DaventryWith long tractor convoys and high attendance, the CHP’s mass rally in the conservative Yozgat province looked like a potential turning point for the opposition movement in Turkey.

22 Apr 2025

Getting underway right now!

Turkey recap@turkeyrecap.bsky.social

📢Live webcast today! We're hosting a video chat with @michaeldaventry.com, the journalist and creator of @jamesinturkey.com , to discuss recent news in Turkish politics. Follow the links to join us at 0900 EST / 1300 UTC / 1600 TRT:

‪In the Turkish parliamentary system each of the main parties nominate a deputy speaker and chairs sessions in rotation. Önder is the man who represents the pro-Kurdish DEM. ‬ ‪Despite his party affiliation, he’s actually Turkish, even though he hails from the southeast of Turkey. ‬

15 Apr 2025

‪All this makes him perhaps the closest example that DEM can point to of an elder statesman – one who is now fighting for his life in hospital.‬

Now that Ekrem İmamoğlu has been formally charged and he has been stripped – temporarily, we are told – of his Istanbul mayoralty, what happens next? A thread 🧵

Also, note posts like this by a senior pro-Kurdish MP implying Ankara mayor Mansur Yavaş, who has Turkish nationalist roots, is a fascist. The row is about his view of a recent Kurdish rally. It will be tough to keep an opposition alliance together.

The opposition says all this boils down to Erdoğan not wanting to face İmamoğlu in an election. It’s not yet clear how many voters, and crucially what type of voters, agree with that. The CHP’s challenge is to maintain momentum and channel public anger – and that won’t be easy.

Now that Ekrem İmamoğlu has been formally charged and he has been stripped – temporarily, we are told – of his Istanbul mayoralty, what happens next? A thread 🧵

The justice minister says this is an independent judicial process and any suggestion of political influence is plainly wrong. The opposition, and countless observers documenting an increasingly politicised judiciary in Turkey, tell a different story.

It’s clear that a significant section of Turkish society is outraged at what’s going on. They aren’t all CHP supporters. What is not yet clear is how deep the anger extends. How many religious conservatives, say, or Turkish nationalists think the same? It is too early to say.

Now that Ekrem İmamoğlu has been formally charged and he has been stripped – temporarily, we are told – of his Istanbul mayoralty, what happens next? A thread 🧵

So: what happens next? Most immediately, İmamoğlu will become CHP candidate for president. Party members will vote on Sunday, the result declared and the party will formalise the decision later in the week. There is, of course, no election imminent.

Next, there is the question of the mayoralty. Can it be taken away from İmamoğlu permanently? Yes: the notorious kayyım process – where a mayor is removed and replaced by the government – remains an option for the interior minister. He has chosen not to use it right now.

Now that Ekrem İmamoğlu has been formally charged and he has been stripped – temporarily, we are told – of his Istanbul mayoralty, what happens next? A thread 🧵

On the second set of charges – relating to terrorism – he has been released pending further enquiries, even though there are "strong suspicions". In highly unusual language for a judicial document, the court decision points out he is already being held for the corruption charges.

The language is unusual because it is common legal practice for cases to be treated in isolation: it is highly irregular to declare a suspect is not being detained on one set of charges on the basis he is already being held on another set of charges.

Now that Ekrem İmamoğlu has been formally charged and he has been stripped – temporarily, we are told – of his Istanbul mayoralty, what happens next? A thread 🧵