in-consistent.bsky.social

in-consistent.bsky.social

@in-consistent.bsky.social

Econ person. Yosemitephile. Whinger.

62 followers62 following200 posts

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

I’m saddened by this news. Hervé is a top scholar and I don’t understand Elsevier’s actions here.

Retraction Watch@retractionwatch.com

Six editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after Elsevier, the journal’s publisher, decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract.

retractionwatch.comEditors of economics journal resign after Elsevier doesn’t renew EIC’s contractSix editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after the journal’s publisher decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract.  In late July, Elsevier to…

in-consistent.bsky.social reposted

Retraction Watch
@retractionwatch.com

Six editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after Elsevier, the journal’s publisher, decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract.

retractionwatch.comEditors of economics journal resign after Elsevier doesn’t renew EIC’s contractSix editors and nearly 60 advisory editors of Games and Economic Behavior resigned after the journal’s publisher decided not to renew the editor-in-chief’s contract.  In late July, Elsevier to…
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in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

This belief was refuted 250 years ago in The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, whose thesis was that prosperity comes to a nation through specialization and trade, not tariffs and protectionism.

Molly Ploofkins@mollyploofkins.bsky.social

Trump: "The tariffs have made this country a fortune. It made the country rich."

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

I had parenting theories I was very confident about for 4 kids. And then my 5th kid threw a bunch of those theories out the window. He’s on the spectrum, and those theories mainly had to do with the need to be consistent to the point of stubbornness. Learned that some kids need flexibility.

Zach Weinersmith@zachweinersmith.bsky.social

Hey parents of bsky: What are some theories of parenting you were very confident in right up until you had your own kids?

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

1/ The discussions surrounding choice under uncertainty has been both exciting and frustrating for me, a specialist in decision theory.

Kathryn Tewson@kathryntewson.bsky.social

Or, perhaps I deal with clients all the time who are trying to decide between accepting a lowball settlement or take it to trial, and I know what information people actually want and need to know to make this choice for real.

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in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

1/ The discussions surrounding choice under uncertainty has been both exciting and frustrating for me, a specialist in decision theory.

Kathryn Tewson@kathryntewson.bsky.social

Or, perhaps I deal with clients all the time who are trying to decide between accepting a lowball settlement or take it to trial, and I know what information people actually want and need to know to make this choice for real.

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in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

5/ The end result is identical to the original options. However, many people would end up flipping their choice. This is known as the endowment effect and is well documented in the literature. Kahneman and Tversky did extensive work on this. Kahneman won a Nobel prize for this work.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

1/ The discussions surrounding choice under uncertainty has been both exciting and frustrating for me, a specialist in decision theory.

Kathryn Tewson@kathryntewson.bsky.social

Or, perhaps I deal with clients all the time who are trying to decide between accepting a lowball settlement or take it to trial, and I know what information people actually want and need to know to make this choice for real.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

2/ On the one hand, I like seeing other people thinking about the same issues that I find fascinating. On the other hand, I’ve seen lots of misunderstandings and down right incorrect things said. And as a former teacher, I have a hard time letting those go.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

3/ First, the choice of accepting a sure $50k over a 50/50 gamble between nothing and $1M is not evidence of economic irrationality. It is perfectly consistent with the canonical economic model of expected utility with risk aversion.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

PhD economist here. I agree that the large percentage of people choosing the sure thing was surprising. I disagree that there is “absolutely a right answer”. Given typical levels of risk aversion, I would expect people in the bottom quartile of the wealth distribution to choose the sure thing.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

There is absolutely a right answer for the vast majority of people, no one with the slightest bit of professional or academic expertise could ever tell you otherwise. You’re just in a social environment where people will constantly lie to you

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Finally! A Bluesky argument that is relevant to my expertise!

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

I know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart

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in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

To come back to the original controversy of whether or not the results from this survey are surprising or not, my take is that they are somewhat surprising. Under CRRA and with median wealth, someone would have to have a measure of risk aversion over 4 to rationalize this choice.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Finally! A Bluesky argument that is relevant to my expertise!

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

I know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart

View full thread
in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Finally! A Bluesky argument that is relevant to my expertise!

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

I know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart

View full thread
in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

This is why we don’t care if utility functions exist. Because under the assumption that someone satisfies these behavioral properties, then that person behaves *as if* they had a utility function. The underlying modeling assumption is behavioral, not a mechanical utility function.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Finally! A Bluesky argument that is relevant to my expertise!

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

I know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart

View full thread
in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

To expand on #1: An outside observer cannot know if someone uses a utility function to make decisions since that is an internal mental process that cannot be known. Even for myself (a decision theorist), I could not say what my utility function is.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

So why do economists use utility functions as the canonical model for humans? Because of an important theoretical result that says: A human who satisfies some basic (but not uncontroversial) behavioral properties is behaviorally indistinct from a human who uses a utility function.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Finally! A Bluesky argument that is relevant to my expertise!

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

I know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Open borders and brisket?! Don’t threaten me with a good time.

the babahuck@tylerhuckabee.bsky.social

apparently in texas, paxton’s campaign is dunking on talarico by …giving out free tacos with talarico’s name on them, courtesy of “radical texas dot com”? whose idea was this, lol.

in-consistent.bsky.social reposted

Ken Jennings
@kenjennings.bsky.social

Some of you are going to want a Mormon take on this but it’s just the Let Them Fight meme.

Andy Craig@andycraig.bsky.social

Mike Lee is not just rage-tweeting about the DoD's new religion codes, he's now in a full meltdown manically replying to people demanding they read the Book of Mormon because he can't shrug off how his far-right brainworms X feed was full of people saying "lol Mormons aren't Christians, suck it."

in-consistent.bsky.social reposted

emptywheel
@emptywheel.bsky.social

Mike Lee started this tirade, then John Curtis (the other Senator from UT) joined in. This strikes me as very smart politics, and a way to unpack the rest of the stupid list.

Rep. Greg Stanton@repgregstanton.bsky.social

Pete Hegseth just reversed a Pentagon policy that guts the military’s religious affiliation codes, slashing them from 200+ down to just 31. 21 of those categories are labeled Christian. Yet the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was not one of them. Hegseth owes an honest explantation.

in-consistent.bsky.social reposted

Joshua Goodman
@joshua-goodman.com

🚨New working paper alert! 🚨 The US spends huge $ on special education services for students with disabilities. Is that spending effective? Today we released a working paper suggesting it is. "Special Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States" Let me explain...

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

Also, they’ll say “Why don’t you support our sons?!” in response to any criticism of Trump.

Adam Serwer@adamserwer.bsky.social

I love that we all know 90 percent of them will flip on a dime now, from “trump won’t send your sons to war” (like it’s only sons) to “trump is sending your sons to war and that’s good.”

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

But inflation was going down. I don’t think that is the kind of stabilization we wanted!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

MARKWAYNE MULLIN: When you talk about the economy, we cut inflation in half KERNEN: But when Trump came into office, it was about where it is right now MULLIN: But we stabilized it

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

People selling their plasma is good actually. (UBI may be good for other reasons, but not to reduce the amount of blood plasma sold.)

Susan Rinkunas@susanrinkunas.com

My god do we need UBI “Researchers have found that when a new plasma center opens in a neighborhood, foot traffic at local grocery stores increases, interest in payday loans declines and crime goes down, an indication of the way money from plasma props up households’ finances for necessities.“

nbcnews.comMiddle-class Americans are selling their plasma to make ends meetLast year, people in the U.S. made an estimated $4.7 billion selling their plasma. Donation centers are popping up in middle-class neighborhoods, including suburban strip malls and college towns.

in-consistent.bsky.social reposted

Zach Weinersmith
@zachweinersmith.bsky.social

I never know how to react to the latest news, so let me just say one more time: immigration is good. It helps immigrants and it helps native-born people. It makes the world richer, culturally and financially.

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

I believe my pencil and doll expenditures this year is exactly zero. No wait, I bought a Pentel P205. (The best pencil.) So $4.50 in pencil and doll expenditures this year.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "You can give up certain products. You could give up pencils. Because under the China policy, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need 1 or 2. They don't need that many. You always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. 2 or 3 is nice. So we're doing things right."

in-consistent.bsky.social
@in-consistent.bsky.social

There was absolutely nothing in any course that I taught that was required for licensure. Everything in my courses would need to be approved by the dean. Heaven forbid I teach the students about equity when I taught about fair allocation problems.