ian bremmer

final polls before israeli election tomorrow have netanyahu and the opposition blocs both short of needed majority..

lula won. bolsonaro won't accept it. that's becoming a familiar problem for democracies everywhere. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DgT...

seven conservative governments elected in latam over the past 18 months. lula’s brazil bucking the trend

in the two hours after voting was extended in brazil, 35k more people cast ballots. makes no difference to lula’s margin of four million votes… story reflects more brazilians’ understandable lack of trust in their supreme court (61% distrust stf justices) than any claims of electoral manipulation

yesterday’s losers (…only one of whom has accepted election outcomes)

lula ended up winning the brazil election by 3 points, not close enough to contest. extraordinary turnaround over the last week—despite extremely strong anti-incumbency sentiment. bolsonaro can refuse to accept the outcome, doesn’t matter.

quite the blame game going on w/ starshield in ukraine… two of the world’s most powerful men can’t or won’t take accountability for poor decision-making. either way it’s ukraine left to suffer the consequences (officials report today that restrictions remain in place) shame.

50% of maga voters sympathize with ukraine, 5% (!) with russia. bots really have their work cut out for them.

putin’s diesel slated to arrive in new york on nov 7 (first delivery since 2023) will account for roughly 7% of one day’s worth of diesel consumption in the united states was it worth it?

incredible (ai generated) things happening on brazilian tiktok

iran, nearly out of its own oil to sell, targeted seven more tankers in the strait last night brings total strikes against hormuz shipping in 2026 to 130+ (likely an undercount)

a (kinda silly) accusation from trump admin re: canadian interference in the midterms meanwhile congress is warning of russian covert influence against pro-ukraine candidates and israel is buying ads in iowa…

i've spent a lot of time on ask ian talking about people who think they run the world. today, i want to talk about someone who actually ran mine. my little buddy moose we lost him recently. this one's for him. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yze...

le pen is poised to profit from the unrest in france. europe... not so much. what this weekend’s riots mean for one of the eu’s most powerful nations: https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/frances-fifth-republic-is-in-turmoil-is-europe-next

bibi trailing in the polls ahead of next week’s elections in israel (explains his eagerness to relaunch iran offensive)

trump is politically aligning himself with putin (see the g20 invite, diesel deal, sanction relief..) talked consequences for ukraine w/ piers morgan uncensored https://youtube.com/shorts/lSwFBwDHiEg

american attitudes toward g20 countries president trump might want to take note of the bottom of the scale

we are not a-muse-d

election-related ai deepfakes in the united states up 21% ahead of midterms (usa accounts for 37% of global incidents recorded since 2020)

trump approval rating drops to 31%, per new reuters/ipsos poll lower than both nixon (34.4%) and w bush’s (36.5%) second term avgs

hard not to read this as subtweeting trump (‘clear position’ / ‘supports fair approaches’) nonetheless good to see any positive usa-ukraine engagement after a tumultuous couple weeks

“there will literally be marriages that break up over this.” - jason kenney, former premier of alberta, on the failed referendum to hold a referendum on alberta independence who are these albertan couples on the brink? i kinda feel like we need to meet them.

duck and cover, new englanders..

europe footing the bill for ukraine’s defense

putin may be losing his economy. he's gaining a much friendlier washington. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=93U8...

zelenskyy reports russia struck 10+ energy facilities in attacks overnight according to trump, it’s z who ‘doesn’t want to end the war’ deeply orwellian

new record for the shortest time i’ve ever followed an administration official

both the usa and china fear losing control of ai… china fears loss of party control usa fears loss of human control (w/ jake sullivan, @gzeromedia.com) www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6zn...

v underdiscussed.. congo ebola outbreak mortality rate at 48.3% 9.1k cases, 4.4k deaths since may (already second worst outbreak ever recorded)

trump’s reaction to zelenskyy (more of the same): “not a good guy to deal with … they’ve destroyed that country”

china closing the gap w/ american ai models the future increasingly looks like a world where china leads in ai models, the united states leads in semiconductors. messy…

we need an independent agency that can 1) identify, 2) communicate, and 3) contain ai threats. we don’t have that process. we don’t even have the beginnings of it. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/shorts/R1crS...

saudi (absent american support it seeks) reshaping mideast security architecture: pakistan and turkey now lending support in fight against houthis, fulfilling commitment under mecca agreement (‘muslim nato’)

nobody wants regional conflagration. everybody wants more leverage at the table. the ceasefire is taking a long time. so is the war. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyzy...

(non-existent) energy ceasefire officially kaput w/ zelenskyy announcing resumption of attacks on russian energy targets. trump surely furious

‘cockroaches’ are finding the cracks in modi’s hold on power, but the pm isn’t going anywhere soon. my analysis on this week’s protest movement in india: https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/cockroach-janta-party

new report from leading israeli national security think tank inss: “the united states is a declining power” not my view. but if israel thinks it can’t depend on the united states, imagine how other allies feel..

more americans think trump has prioritized his own business interests (87%) than he has people like them (46%). can’t imagine why..

starlink (reportedly) restricted over ukraine after elon’s comment that zelenskyy has “gone too far” the european response this morning:

the biggest foreign policy difference between biden and trump? whether a strong, integrated europe is a friend to american interests or a foe that undermines them. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/shorts/2xnza...

russia’s missile attacks from a day ago were s-400s, not always detected by us satellites. russia’s most recent missile launches against ukraine were detected and appropriate warnings were broadcast. for now at least, the united states is continuing to share this intelligence with ukraine.

six tankers targeted by iran on sunday alone. assuming avg. of 20-25 daily transits: a 25% hit rate.

russian strikes on ukrainian energy infrastructure up 28% since last week, per acled. trump’s ‘because-i-said-so’ energy ceasefire: doa.

zelenskyy: “no warning from our partners” about russia’s strikes overnight in ukraine fact check: the white house has not (yet, at least) suspended any intelligence sharing, per ukraine's foreign minister today

trump spent over a year saying other countries shouldn't buy russian oil. then diesel prices rose. now russia has a new buyer @gzeromedia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCo56ibG3wo

presented w/o comment..