Matt Elliott

projection.cityhallwatcher.comElection Night Results — Toronto ElectionThe City of Toronto's unofficial count for every race on Oct. 26, 2026, updated about every minute from 8 p.m.

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City Hall Watcher’s projection site will have live results starting once polls close at 8 p.m. (Let @alexo.bsky.social know if there are any issues with the data feed!) projection.cityhallwatcher.com/results/

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CBC’s election night special is about to go live, featuring me and several smart people. You can watch live on YouTube starting at 7 p.m.: www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzLc...

thestar.comMatt Elliott: Your vote today will affect Toronto streets, parks — and yes, even washrooms. So don’t let it go down the drainDon't throw away your shot to participate in the democratic process for choosing the level of government with the most impact on your day-to-day life, writes Matt Elliott.

My @thestar.com column: Today we get to decide our most direct kind of government. Your vote will decide things like street sweeping frequency, the wait for dead raccoon pick-up, and whether a washroom door is locked when you need it So don’t miss your chance — vote www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...

toronto.cityhallwatcher.comHey hey, it’s election day: City Hall Watcher’s municipal election guideFinal projections, live results, an election special, candidate chaos and more

Check your inbox: it’s a special FREE E-Day edition of City Hall Watcher, with notes on a wild final day of mayoral polling and what it meant for our projection, plus where I’ll be on Election Night. Plus: One last bit of Candidate Chaos. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/hey-hey-it...

projection.cityhallwatcher.comToronto 2026 ElectionsA mayoral forecast, the polls behind it, and Toronto’s council and school-board races.

It’s election eve, and a new poll from Liaison Strategies has boosted Olivia Chow’s chances to beat Brad Bradford in City Hall Watcher’s election projection. Still close! See all the polls and data on our election site. It will also host live results tomorrow night. projection.cityhallwatcher.com

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A new Mainstreet Research poll also has Olivia Chow rebounding, showing her up five points against Brad Bradford. Their previous poll had her down one. The poll will be added to our projection soon. www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post/chow-cl...

pallas-data.caPallas Toronto Poll: Chow 53, Bradford 43 - Pallas Data(TORONTO, October 25, 2026) – Olivia Chow heads into tomorrow’s election with her lead over Brad Bradford back to ten points, according to a new Pallas Data poll conducted October 24. Bradford’s gains...

Another election eve poll. Pallas Data has Chow up 10 over Bradford among decided voters. The polls seem to be pointing to a shift heading into e-day. pallas-data.ca/2026/10/26/c...

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Closing statements! "Mayor Chow is a great person. Nice enough. But the results under her leadership have not been good enough for you," says Bradford. "I'm not perfect, but I've worked hard to lower the cost of living for you," says Chow. "We're making progress by working together."

And that's it. No more debates til 2030, presumably. We'll be old. New stuff: Bradford downplaying strong mayor powers, Chow hitting Bradford on his not-totally-a-freeze property tax freeze.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Bradford accuses Chow of flying David Suzuki in on a plane ("Countless GHG emissions and carbon impact') to criticize his water plan. Chow says Suzuki is actually in town to do a theatre show.

"I would never support it. I would resign my seat if Toronto Water was ever privatized," says Bradford, noting provincial law prohibits privatization of a water corp.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Favourite late night snack? Chow says a peanut butter sandwich. Bradford says a burger from Square Boy on Danforth.

Bradford asks Chow how she'll pay for the promises she's made. Chow says the majority of her plans are already in the 2027 budget. Chow asks Bradford why he wants to "give away our water." "You know that's not true," says Bradford, accusing the mayor of "dishonesty" re water privatization.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

What's the biggest misconception about you? "That I don't have fun while I'm at work," says Bradford. "I have a lot of fun at work." "That I have too much fun and I'm not doing the kind of work that needs to be done," says Chow. She says she is.

What's their favourite thing to do in the city? Bradford: Take his daughters for a ride on Leslie Spit. Chow: Go to the new Biidaasige Park and watch the sunset.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Next Q: "How do you balance adding density with the concerns of residents who don't want a 30-storey tower butted up against their house?" Chow says it's important to work to get a "consensus" in the neighbourhood. She says she won't use strong mayor power to "override this local democracy."

On data centres, Bradford says he's supported a "pause" to figure out enviro issues. Chow says she wants a moratorium — "not just a pause" — and knocks Bradford for indicating support for data centres in earlier debates.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Next Q is about the relationship with Queen's Park. "The people of Toronto should have say over municipal matters," says Chow. She notes the city won the battle over the island airport, and that shows the city can win vs Ford.

"The province has been able to dictate the terms. We haven't had strong leadership at city hall," says Bradford. Chow notes she's got Ford to upload the Gardiner & DVP. Bradford asks what happened to her promise to fight Ford on the Science Centre and Ontario Place.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Asked if there's a city program that they would review or cancel, Chow says she'll be looking for ways to share more of the load on transit funding with provincial/federal govs. "I'm not going to look at one thing. I'm looking at everything," answers Bradford, promising a line-by-line review.

Chow says Bradford's property tax freeze isn't actually a freeze because he's going to keep the 1.5% city building levy. "Tell the people here tonight that it is not a freeze, and that you are going to borrow a whole lot of money — max out on the credit card," says the mayor.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Next Q is about what they most want to accomplish over the next four years. "I want to build housing — a lot of it," says Chow. Bradford says he wants to eliminate the land transfer tax for the average homebuyer.

On climate policy, Bradford says the best thing we can do is get people back on transit. Chow notes she's got "climate champion" David Suzuki's endorsement, and it's important to make sure Toronto water doesn't get privatized.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

On homelessness, Chow notes Bradford voted against a shelter in Etobicoke. Bradford says he's supported shelters, but will oppose cases where "the work hasn't been done with community, when the consultation hasn't taken place, when we haven't brought the community onside."

Asked by a viewer if they'd use strong mayor powers, Bradford dodges and says he's seeking a mandate from voters, and pledges to "work with everybody."("I didn't hear an answer there," Chow notes.) "I'm not going to use the strong mayor powers and destroy democracy," answers Chow.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Round 3: Public Safety. Bradford says it'll be his priority for his first 100 days, touts his plan to hire 1K cops. Chow says before her term, the city had been ignoring the "root cause of crime" which is why she's invested in youth programs. She also says she's lowered 911 response times.

"I would just say that people in Toronto don't feel safe, and we ought not to ignore them. Nobody checks a crime dashboard before they decide whether or not to take their kids to a festival," says Bradford.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

"Look, nobody rides more bikes than I do. I rode 10,000 kilometres last year," brags Bradford. He says he's "the only candidate that has a plan to build new cycling infrastructure — we're just going to do it in our ravine network."

"At some point, you need to take a stand," says Mayor Olivia Chow of Bradford's shifting view on bike lanes. "You have to say, 'This is what I believe in.' Yes or No. It is tough, but that is what leadership is about."

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Chow says Bradford once supported a "whole lot of bike lanes" but "now he's changed his mind and invited Premier Doug Ford to rip the bike lanes out. And that is so unfortunate. It's causing chaos."

"I think a lot of folks view the NDP ideology as really problematic when it comes to making practical decisions at City Hall," says Bradford. "Nobody invited the premier — it's because we haven't had strong leadership at city hall to stand up against the province."

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Bradford says the Bloor West data suggest the city "allocated 50% of the road space for half a percentage of road users. And that doesn't work." (By this logic, there are several streets downtown where pedestrians should get MUCH wider sidewalks)

"Cyclists need to be safe, just like everyone else, so those bike lanes actually protect a lot of cyclists," Chow says. She cites "enormous" Bike Share ridership as evidence people are looking for safe ways to cycle around the city, and lanes help with that.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Chow says traffic will improve when more people ride transit. She touts the opening of the Scarborough Busway. "A lot of money has been spent. There's been a lot of photo ops and announcements, but we haven't seen the results," says Bradford.

Asked about bike lanes, Bradford says "some bike lanes" make sense in the city, but says part of leadership is recognizing when something isn't working. "So I have committed to supporting the removal of the bike lanes in Etobicoke," he says.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

Asked how she'll pay for her promise to expand school food programs, Chow says she plans to phase it in, with funding from provincial and federal sources plus private donations and parents who can afford it chipping in.

Second Q is on traffic. Chow says she's hired traffic agents and sped up projects like the Gardiner rebuild. She says the city learned a lot from the successful FIFA traffic plan. Bradford promises Canadian "smart signal" tech at every intersection, and fewer lane closures.

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

First Q is about housing affordability. Bradford says he'll cut the land transfer tax on the average home price. Chow says 15K new units of rental housing are being built, many using city land. She also says she worked with PM Carney to reduce dev charges.

Asked how he'll make sure his plan to create a water corp won't just lead to a lot more debt, Bradford says he's got a "modern approach" where projects are financed over the life of the asset. Chow says Bradford's water plan just "opens the door to privatization."

It's the final debate of the mayoral election, hosted by CP24. The candidates are standing. I repeat: standing. You can watch live here. I'll post a few happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkge...

"Tonight, you will hear two different visions. One -- going forward and keeping life affordable. The other one is a lot of promises with no way of paying for it," Mayor Olivia Chow says in her opening statement.

"Tonight you're going to hear things like, 'Brad's gonna close the libraries' or 'Poison the drinking water.' That is reflective of a campaign that is out of ideas and out of gas," Bradford says in his opening, criticizing Chow's campaign messaging.

A clean sweep for Sugar Maple in Toronto’s first-ever Kids Vote Weekend. Kids in all 25 wards voted to make Sugar Maple the Tree of the Year for 2027. Here’s where the winning tree’s vote came from. More than 10K votes were cast. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FGnw2/1/

thestar.comMatt Elliott: Three little words explain Olivia Chow’s lack of grand vision — and one big idea could change it allIs Doug Ford limiting Toronto’s power? Columnist argues a constitutionally protected city charter could stop the premier’s municipal overreach.

My @thestar.com column: One reason this mayoral election hasn’t seen many big ideas? Blame Doug Ford, and his constant interference in Toronto issues There is one big idea that could change all of this, though. We should be talking about making Toronto a Charter City www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...

🎁 Gift link: www.thestar.com/gift-redeem?...

A big day for mayoral polling! @alexo.bsky.social has added four new surveys to City Hall Watcher’s Election Projection. Together, they’ve brought Chow’s chances down to 61%. A real upward trend for Bradford. Could be a nail-biter. projection.cityhallwatcher.com

toronto.cityhallwatcher.comThe most disagreeable decisions of Toronto City CouncilCity Hall Watcher #406: After 5,000 attempts, a look at what SIMCOUNCILLOR tells us about Toronto Council. Plus Candidate Chaos looks at dumb rules, Gardiner billboards, and cats

Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #406! 7 days to go! To get you in election mode, I’ve got data from SimCouncillor, looking at the most disagreeable Council decisions. Plus CANDIDATE CHAOS looks at big endorsements, ramped-up debates, and cats. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/the-most-d...

projection.cityhallwatcher.comToronto 2026 ElectionsA mayoral forecast, the polls behind it, and Toronto’s council and school-board races.

Pallas Data has Chow 52 / Bradford 46 (Chow+6, N=732 - Oct 14, IVR). The poll has been added to City Hall Watcher’s projection site, but the model is unmoved. projection.cityhallwatcher.com

Interesting bit of Meta ad data I didn’t get to include in the newsletter: Bradford’s ads are being seen mostly by younger men. Chow’s ads finding a broader audience with more older people and women More ad spend analysis in this week’s City Hall Watcher: toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/campaign-c...