Edward Walker

Interesting article. One takeaway: Ze would have a hard time selling a ceasefire along the current LOC (which Putin is v unlikely to agree to anyway, at least for the foreseeable future).

Correct. And unclear there wld even be pause. Keep in mind RU doesn’t occupy much of annexed Zaporozhia and Kherson oblasts. Nor does it or would it control Kyiv.

❗️Russia will not abandon the capture of the entire Donbas: this is what Putin told the leaders of Finland and Norway, — Reuters.

Thread. More on this. Also: “Stubb and Støre emphasized that Finland and Norway will continue their longstanding support for Ukraine.”

What they told Putin matters, but regardless this shld be an EU thing, not individual EUR leaders going solo.

Hmmm. Gotta agree.

2/as well as boosting the production of engines for SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles and other systems, while implementing seven projects for new plants and capacity expansions in Europe and the US, reports La Tribune.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

❗️The French company Safran plans to double production in the defense sector between 2025 and 2030, in particular by increasing the output of AASM Hammer guided bombs from 200 units in 2022 to around 1,400 in 2026 and up to 2,000 annually from 2027,

Serbia also remains one of Europe's few remaining buyers of Russian natural gas, underscoring a dependence that leaves Moscow supplying about 80% of its total gas imports. Therefore, the question of sanctions against Russia is likely to remain one of the most sensitive tests for the new government.

BREAKING WaPo: Brazil's right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro just effectively conceded defeat to the incumbent left-wing president — minutes after Trump indicated he would not intervene on his behalf.

Russian forces launched a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. A total of at least 12 RM-48U missiles were fired from S-400 launchers; explosions were reported, with damage to a university, Lisova metro station and residential buildings. #Ukraine

Thread. Takeaway: another Trump nothing burger. And an economic nothing burger for RU (albeit not a political nothing burger for RU).

Romania’s domestic intelligence service (SRI) and the Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism (DIICOT) attribute last month’s fire at the Carfil factory to an act of sabotage carried out by the russian Federation.

In a better world, this might be possible if coupled with limitations on RU troop deployments. Even if Trump agreed to end/limit US presence in Poland, the Baltics, and/or Finland, other NATO states won’t go along. Also, the next POTUS cld reverse the decision bc no chance of a ratified treaty.

Good. There is another America still alive over there. And I suspect it's going to get louder.

Well that would be good. But clearly there’s a lot of uncertainty about the new government in Belgrade.

Some realistic realism here from Ushakov.

Thread. Doubt this goes anywhere, assuming the Dems take at least the House in the midterms. My impression is that virtually all these Trump mega deals turn out to be nothing burgers (Gaza, UKR, Greenland, etc). Partial exception is Venezuela, but even that isn’t the bonanza Trump claims.

That’s a lot of Storm Shadows. UKR must have thought the plant was particularly important to RU’s long-range strike missiles. Hope that’s right.

❗️Serbia’s student-led opposition says its election victory will not bring a tougher line on Russia. It does not plan sanctions against Moscow or an end to Russian gas ties. For Ukraine, Vučić’s defeat therefore does not automatically mean a more pro-Kyiv government. #Ukraine

Yup, the way to do it: “Politely delivered, but firm.”

Yup. And IMO he shld stick to those demands.

“We’ve been waiting nearly a month for Mr. Hegseth to sign off on missiles for Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems,” – Zelenskyy.

Germany is preparing to buy Ukrainian-made Bars cruise missiles for its armed forces, the Financial Times reported. meduza.io/en/news/2026...

Here’s hoping this forecast proves correct: “An exceptionally strong El Niño pattern is shaping the 2026–2027 autumn and winter seasons in Ukraine, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures, delayed snowfall, and a mix of dry conditions and atmospheric volatility.”

⚡️Kyiv’s power ring under attack: why the capital faces a winter of blackouts Russia is targeting power plants and substations supplying the capital. Further strikes and severe frosts could mean blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day. What should residents prepare for? Read the full story👇

Thread. 💯% agree, notably including this:”… until military/economic/political conditions convince Putin that military domination of Ukraine is no longer a viable option, Russia won't agree to any deal giving Ukraine real security guarantees…”

Zelensky says the US restored full intelligence support for Ukraine and lifted Starshield restrictions. He says the main unresolved issue is the shortage of air-defense systems. Military limits and neutrality are off the table, while territory can only be discussed by leaders. #Ukraine

Planet satellite imagery indicates Proton-Electrotex in Oryol has been functionally destroyed. Both production workshops sustained major damage, including partial roof and wall collapses, while the plant’s clean-room areas were also hit. #Russia

Thread. NB: “The loss of this volume of MTBE in a single strike will significantly affect the production of high-quality gasoline in the Russian Federation.” (Assuming the plant has indeed been rendered inoperable, at least for a while.)

Thread. Good news. Article behind a paywall but this from Gemini: “… mass production and initial deliveries of the Anthem long-range cruise missile scheduled to start in early 2027. Covenant aims to build 1,000 units by the end of 2027 and scale up to an annual run rate of 5,000 units by 2028.”

Cruise missiles have just struck the Energia plant in Yelets, Lipetsk region. It produces batteries and power systems for missile systems, aircraft, and other military equipment. 300 km from Ukraine’s border.

Thick black smoke is observed in Yelets, Russia, where the AO Energiya plant was just attacked. It is now assumed that 3-4 Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles were launched and hit the facility. #Ukraine

Zone 5 Technologies is a privately held company based in San Luis Obispo, CA, that develops and tests innovative unmanned aircraft systems for government applications. It focuses on air launched effects, next gen munitions, counter UAS, and tactical interceptors.

Good. Zone 5 Technologies is a US company based in California.

Good.

JUST POSTED: A Russian energy giant has secretly moved to acquire a position in a massive Alaska gas project. Its part of talks between Witkoff/Kushner & Putin. But CEO of US company resigns after learning of Russian money in the project. A wowzer of a story. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

Zelensky says Starlink restrictions are still disrupting Ukrainian operations despite Trump’s claim they were lifted. Deliveries of promised interceptors for Russian ballistic missiles are also delayed, he says, as Russia launches near-daily attacks. meduza.io/en/news/2026...

Thread. I think this is right, but I also think RU-UKR is an easier issue for GOP pols to use to distance themselves from Trump after the midterms than the ME. There’s IMO no RU equivalent to the Israeli lobby in DC, to understate the case (despite RU influence ops). We’ll see.

Hmmm.

Utter destruction at Russia's Proton microelectronics plant in Oryol after the missile strike. At least one production workshop was completely destroyed, with upper floors, roof and facade collapsed. Further operation of its production lines is impossible. #Russia

The Proton plant in Oryol is still burning after the missile strike. Russian reports say more than 30 people are missing. Emergency crews reportedly cannot begin recovering the dead while the fire continues, with people still trapped under the rubble. #Russia

Another video from the Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missile attack in Oryol appeared. #Russia

All the craziness of the latest Kushner story aside, here we have yet another example of the Dutch intelligence services punching massively above their weight. The Dutch government has called for the creation of a European Five Eyes - take us up on the offer, I would say.

Gonna be a blockbuster.

Deepfake versions of Robert De Niro, Julia Roberts, and Cher are urging Americans not to vote for Democrats. U.S. intelligence says Russia is behind the campaign, and lawmakers believe that any candidate who supports Ukraine could be targeted. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

One thing Trump didn’t that I thought he probably wld before the midterms is try a Venezuela on Cuba. Part of the reason is likely Iran going so badly, but maybe also bc he was told and came to understand that Cuba wld be a tougher target, esp after Cuba learned/took measures from the Venezuela op.

Evacuations underway at Moscow City's IQ Quarter tower following a drone threat. The building houses several Russian government bodies, including the Economy Ministry, Industry and Trade Ministry, Ministry of Digital Development, and Rosstandart.

Thread. More of this please.

Hmmm. We’ll see if there’s any truth to this.