Ed Bradford

Without the dark, your canvas would be blank

Nice jump in CB's confidence number

UST 5s is a sell-side and AI disruption fav so it trades rich on the curve. It could very well be justifiable richness but NTL should see some back and forth before the auction esp with FOMC tomorrow.

ANT it is. Anthropic publicly files for NASDAQ IPO

Unimpressive tech bounce after yesterday's rout.

Rate path live vs Wed

Hard to deny the fragility of the US economy. With the housing market stuck in the doldrums because of high interest rates, GDP is basically being held up by the dual engine of AI spending and the recession-proof healthcare/eldercare hiring machine. So any AI capex slowdown is notable for rates

Latest AI angst pushing next week's hike odds down to 10%.

With odds of a cutback or elimination still out there, 20s have been strengthening on the curve. No reason for today's auction not to go well as it seems headliney duration angst is behind us

Housing is dead

Could surging crude liven Oct FOMC?

Mood

Not much from Warsh last night. Once it became clear he wasn't gonna discuss Oct FOMC, hike odds faded further and are now 14%

Four year highs for 30y swap spreads. Less fiscal concerns or side effect of AI duration supply... or maybe both

Not a deep observation here, but long end bid like this suggests asset allocation out of risk

PPI PCE components a mixed bag

October a long time ago it took 10% 10s to take stocks down

One nice thing about cheap USTs. They are already pricing so many risks that they don't need to adjust as much to ugly inflation prints.... unlike post-COVID

Hassett should stop talking. Best thing he could do

Still some juice left in Oct FOMC (20% ish). An as expected CPI will be the final nail

Fed's Williams suggesting one more rate hike this year and then Fed stops. No more rate hikes in 2027

From "return-free risk" to serious curve risk. As Jim Grant once warned, US Treasuries used to offer no yield for plenty of danger. Today, soaring term premiums show investors are finally demanding real compensation for locking up cash in an uncertain world.

Is this a "3 peaks and domed house" pattern?

Peeps in a sour mood

Definitely enough of a concession for a good auction later today. 5.7% 30s should find some friends.

Oct is still holding on at 17%. Only CPI next week can finish the job.

With the Kim-Wright term premium measure surging above 100 bps, you are handsomely rewarded buying 10s. Auction "should" go well

The UST spread dearest to my heart has now steepened more than 20 bps since Sept 22nd 2s5s

The MBA figure is a little higher than the Bankrate quote, but it’s all moving in the same direction.

With 1yf 2s north of 5.19, expect bids to show up for today's 3y auction.

With Le Spread calming down overnight a bit of reprieve for USTs with the belly leading the way. 5s30s back on its steepening trend above 61 bps

12-year high for the popular ACM term premium model. Interesting move in light of Fed President Logan's recent comments on TP

All you need to know about the labor market. AHE

Now pricing only one more 25 bp hike in '26

Interesting that the 1-year forward curve is now uninverted again. Front end still a bit flat but overall a normal times curve which suggests neutral rate most likely much higher than what Fed thinks or admits

Steepening trend continuing after last week's front-end puke out. 5s30s now 21 bps steeper. And 2s5s 15 bps steeper.

Stocks front running October

Oct pricing after Williams

CB labor market gauge another cycle low