EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor

EPOC researcher David Thornalley (@ucl.ac.uk) appeared on @bbc5live.bsky.social with Naga Munchetty and Chris Smith to explain: 🗺️why AMOC matters 🥶what AMOC weakening actually means for the UK 🌧️why the consequences extend well beyond Europe [1/2]

Novel autonomous profiling system north of Svalbard captured under-ice phytoplankton bloom one week before Polar Day. ☀️ ______________ 🦠🦠🦠🦠🦠 Rebecca McPherson (@awi.de) + colleagues report high-resolution observations of Arctic upper ocean biogeochemistry. Deep Sea Research Part II. [1/3]

May 2023 bloom occurred under >80% sea ice, with minimal light availability, challenging conventional bloom initiation thresholds for Atlantic Water regions. SWIPS (Subsea Winched Profiling System) collected profiles through polar night addressing sampling gap in Arctic oceanography. [2/3]

Atlantic Water entering the Arctic through Fram Strait has warmed 0.54°C over 27 years. 🌡️ New EPOC paper from Rebecca McPherson (@awi.de) & colleagues presents the longest continuous mooring record available for the Arctic gateway region. 🟡 ❕ ❕ ❕ ❕ ⬜ Deep Sea Research Part II, out now. [1/3]

Warming rate of 0.20°C/decade exceeds global ocean rates. Data reveal multi-annual warm / cold anomalies with 2-year typical duration, but most recent cold period lasted 5+ years, unprecedented in this record. Suggests shifting baseline conditions in Atlantic Water source regions. [2/3]

Public engagement with AMOC science is EXACTLY what climate discourse needs. 🗣️🌍🌡️ Recent weeks saw collapse scenarios reach millions through @nebriefing.bsky.social & Ben Miles' content predicting -20°C in London & complete agricultural collapse. 🥶 But does the framing reflect the evidence? [1/7]

EPOC's work on transport variability, past circulation changes, & conditions for abrupt transitions (tipping points) provides evidence to separate plausible risk from extreme projections. Until those gaps narrow, accurate communication is how we should serve the public & policymakers. [6/7]

Public engagement with AMOC science is EXACTLY what climate discourse needs. 🗣️🌍🌡️ Recent weeks saw collapse scenarios reach millions through @nebriefing.bsky.social & Ben Miles' content predicting -20°C in London & complete agricultural collapse. 🥶 But does the framing reflect the evidence? [1/7]

Gerard McCarthy @maynoothuniversity.ie, co-chair of JPI Oceans AMOC in Focus, notes single-study headlines generate "seesawing narratives that concern and confuse policymakers rather than equipping them to act." phys.org/news/2026-04... The AMOC community is working to consolidate guidance. [4/7]

Public engagement with AMOC science is EXACTLY what climate discourse needs. 🗣️🌍🌡️ Recent weeks saw collapse scenarios reach millions through @nebriefing.bsky.social & Ben Miles' content predicting -20°C in London & complete agricultural collapse. 🥶 But does the framing reflect the evidence? [1/7]

Bringing AMOC and climate conversations to the public, policymakers & politicans has never been more needed. But disseminating science carries responsibility: communicating science accurately, not just dramatically. [2/7]

EPOC researcher Karin Margretha H. Larsen presents 30 years of North Atlantic-Norwegian Sea observations at Joint One Ocean Week / ASOF event om 21 April. oneoceanweek.no/en/arrangeme... Limited to 80 participants. Registration deadline 13 April. @unibergen.bsky.social en.bsky.social [1/3]

Programme: 📜 150 years research history (Østerhus, NORCE) 🌊 Atlantic Water transport 1998-2024 (Ingvaldsen, IMR) ❄️ Sea-ice anomalies 1880s-1910s (Miles, Colorado/NORCE) 🔄 Overturning changes (Brakstad, UiB) 🌡️ Fram Strait warming (Heuzé, Gothenburg) 🔬 Karin's 30yr observations [2/3]

This month marks 150 years of ocean observations in Nordic Seas with the 1876 Norwegian Vøring Expedition. 🚢 What better way to celebrate than the ASOF Workshop in Bergen, Norway (21-23 April)? 🇳🇴 Charting progress from ship-based sampling to autonomous systems. REGISTRATION👉 asof.awi.de [1/4]

Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) Workshop follows on 24 April at Institute of Marine Research. The Ridge is the primary Atlantic inflow pathway to the Arctic, yet sustained transport measurements remain incomplete. The workshop will focus on coordinating strategies for continuous monitoring. [2/4]

DYK the ocean has a "memory"? The ocean moves slowly, holds heat for decades, staying insulated from surface processes. 🌊 A signal formed today persists for years as it travels through subsurface currents. That memory makes long-range prediction possible... [1/3]

Researcher Hongdou Fan (MPIMET) built a forecasting system that reads ocean memory to predict winter temperatures months ahead. ☃️🌡️ It's been supporting China's National Winter Forecast since 2021, informing decisions that affect millions of people. 🇨🇳☂️ [2/3]

EPOC's latest newsletter documents a quarter where researchers: published in @nature.com reached millions via @channel4news.bsky.social engaged 2000 visitors at @glasgowscience.bsky.social launched a @github.com community AND ran an international sensor workshop. Here's what happened... (1/4)

Edinburgh biogeochemical sensor workshop with 48 researchers from 22 institutions. Consensus: oxygen sensors should be standard on mooring arrays. Breaking down silos between physical oceanography & biogeochemistry was the key outcome. @noc.ac.uk (3/4)

EPOC's latest newsletter documents a quarter where researchers: published in @nature.com reached millions via @channel4news.bsky.social engaged 2000 visitors at @glasgowscience.bsky.social launched a @github.com community AND ran an international sensor workshop. Here's what happened... (1/4)

EPOC had a strong week at @agu.org #OSM26 in Glasgow. @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social delivered a science plenary to ~3,000 delegates : what we know about AMOC, how we know it, and what sustained observation makes possible. (1/4)

Across the week, EPOC researchers presented on: — 90,000 years of AMOC change (Thornalley) — Arctic freshwater export, 1992–2024 (de Steur) — Aerosol forcing and AMOC since 1950 (Msadek) — Eddy-resolving AMOC simulations (Fan) — The 8.2 ka BP weakening event (Hewitt) <3/4>

EPOC had a strong week at @agu.org #OSM26 in Glasgow. @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social delivered a science plenary to ~3,000 delegates : what we know about AMOC, how we know it, and what sustained observation makes possible. (1/4)

As researchers gathered at #OSM26, we saw nearly 2000 people through @glasgowscience.bsky.social for Eyes on the Ocean showcasing the breadth & depth of ocean science to half-term families who left knowing what AMOC is and why it matters. (1/5)

🦆 The National Maritime Museum brought a Micronesian navigational chart & a 1992 Friendly Floatee duck. 🐬@strandings.bsky.social brought cetacean skulls & a find-the-otoliths-in-dolphin-poop activity 🦪@glasgow.ac.uk made the case for native oysters. (4/5)

As researchers gathered at #OSM26, we saw nearly 2000 people through @glasgowscience.bsky.social for Eyes on the Ocean showcasing the breadth & depth of ocean science to half-term families who left knowing what AMOC is and why it matters. (1/5)

We showcased the @noc.ac.uk recent Channel 4 segment & HongdouFan's AMOC visualisations on the EPOC stand. Audiences explored ocean currents using a Puffersphere globe & saw how warming seas destabilise marine food webs. @samsocean.bsky.social showcased AUV gliders & water mixing experiments. (2/5)

This! Tomorrow!

New @nature.com paper from Jack Wharton @ucl.ac.uk. Using deep-ocean sediments, the study shows that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation during the Last Glacial Maximum persisted at similar depths to today & was much warmer than previously assumed. 📄 www.nature.com/articles/s41... <1/3>

This provides new constraints for evaluating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) behaviour across different climate states. This also brings palaeo-reconstructions into closer agreement with climate models; useful for testing model performance under more extreme boundary conditions.