🇺🇸 One week to go: the US midterms. Democrats are favoured to take both chambers from the Republicans. Probability of controlling the Senate: Democrats 66%. Probability of controlling the House: Democrats 92%. electiontracker.eu/midterms-2026 #Midterms2026 #UnitedStates 📊
Election Tracker
Election Tracker
@electiontracker.eu
Elections worldwide: market-implied probabilities before the vote, the live count after it. Posts by itself: a week before each vote, the eve, big moves, the day, the result.
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🇮🇱 Voting today: Prime Minister of Israel after the election. Leading: Gadi Eizenkot, 58% chance to win. electiontracker.eu/israel/prime-minister-after-the-election-2026 #Israel 📊
🇨🇦 Upset! Congratulations to the new Mayor of Kingston, ON, Conny Glenn, elected with 43.3% of the vote! The day before the vote, Bryan Paterson had a 95% chance to win, Conny Glenn 5%. electiontracker.eu/canada/kingston-on-mayoral-election-2026 #onpoli #Canada 📊
🇨🇦 Congratulations to the new Mayor of Windsor, ON, Fred Francis, elected with 47.4% of the vote! Fred Francis 47.4% Drew Dilkens 37.2% Kat Pasquach 9.3% electiontracker.eu/canada/windsor-on-mayoral-election-2026 #onpoli #Canada 📊
🇨🇦 Upset! Congratulations to the new Mayor of Mississauga, Alvin Tedjo! The day before the vote, Bonnie Crombie had a 56% chance to win, Alvin Tedjo 16%. electiontracker.eu/canada/mississauga-mayoral-election-2026 #onpoli #Canada 📊
🇨🇦 First results: Windsor, ON Mayoral Election Fred Francis 47.4% Drew Dilkens 37.2% Kat Pasquach 9.3% electiontracker.eu/canada/windsor-on-mayoral-election-2026 #onpoli #Canada 📊
🇷🇸 The votes are counted; now Serbia needs a government. From tonight our Serbia page follows it live, step by step: final result, seats, first sitting, Speaker, prime minister, ministers. Where it stands 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
A twist: Serbia has no president. Vučić resigned on 27 September to lead his list, and the Speaker, Ana Brnabić, became acting president. The new Assembly's Speaker takes that over, and it is the acting president who proposes the prime minister. electiontracker.eu/serbia/ana-brnabic #Serbia 📊
No one has been proposed as prime minister yet. Chances now: Dejan Šoškić 40%, Ilija Srdanović 23%, Radomir Saičić 7%. Saičić, the chemist who spoke for the list on election night, has a 60% chance of becoming president. electiontracker.eu/serbia/prime-minister-2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 The votes are counted; now Serbia needs a government. From tonight our Serbia page follows it live, step by step: final result, seats, first sitting, Speaker, prime minister, ministers. Where it stands 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
Closest seat: Usame Zukorlić's SPP, a Bosniak list, is 152 votes short. Minority lists skip the 3% threshold and their votes count 35% more in the seat count. If the SPP gets there, the seat comes from the Student List. electiontracker.eu/serbia/usame-zukorlic-movement-for-unification #Serbia 📊
The clock: the commission has 96 hours from the last local report to publish the final result, then 10 days to give out the seats. The new Assembly must sit within 30 days, and elect a government within 90 days of that, or face a new election. electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 The votes are counted; now Serbia needs a government. From tonight our Serbia page follows it live, step by step: final result, seats, first sitting, Speaker, prime minister, ministers. Where it stands 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
On the electoral commission's count so far (8,191 of 8,392 polling stations), the Student List has 140 of the 250 seats: 14 more than it needs to govern alone. Vučić's United Serbia has 104, four minority lists 6. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 73 of the Student List's 140 new MPs hold a doctorate: more than half of Serbia's incoming majority. We read their biographies on the list's own page one by one and counted. What we found 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
Among them: two members of the Serbian Academy of Sciences, chemist Radomir Saičić and electrical engineer Slobodan Vukosavić, and former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić, who took his doctorate in finance in Belgrade. electiontracker.eu/serbia/radomir-saicic #Serbia 📊
Is it a record? Many say so. We found no count of earlier parliaments to compare with (the Assembly lists its MPs' jobs, not their degrees), so we can't confirm it. One square per MP is on our Serbia page, beside the government's formation, live. electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 73 of the Student List's 140 new MPs hold a doctorate: more than half of Serbia's incoming majority. We read their biographies on the list's own page one by one and counted. What we found 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊
61 say so in their biography. 12 more are docents or professors in a university's science faculties, a post that in Serbia requires a doctorate. First on the list: cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, who took his in 2012. electiontracker.eu/serbia/ilija-srdanovic #Serbia 📊
We did not count the "dr" before a name: in Serbia every medical doctor carries it. Of the list's many physicians, only those whose biography names a doctorate are among the 73. Nor did a conductor's chair at the music faculty count. electiontracker.eu/serbia/student-list-students-win #Serbia 📊
🇦🇺 Voting today: Huon Valley Mayoral Election. Leading: Abby McKibben, 34% chance to win. electiontracker.eu/australia/huon-valley-mayoral-election-2026 #Australia 📊
🇮🇱 Tomorrow: Prime Minister of Israel after the election. Leading: Gadi Eizenkot, 57% chance to win, up 7 points over the past week. electiontracker.eu/israel/prime-minister-after-the-election-2026 #Israel 📊
🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
Two Bosniak lists from Sandžak win a seat each. "Rasim Ljajić – Humane" bears Ljajić's name, but he did not run: its seat goes to Dženan Palamar. SDA of Sandžak's goes to Ahmedin Škrijelj. Zukorlić's SPP missed by a few hundred votes. electiontracker.eu/serbia/rasim-ljajic-humane-sdp-cdp #Serbia 📊
How 0.3% wins a seat: minority lists skip the 3% threshold and their votes count 35% more in the seat count. Authentic Right won more votes than the Hungarians and gets none. Next: the official seat count, then MPs named within 10 days. electiontracker.eu/serbia/2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
Serbia's Hungarians: the VMSZ, Vučić's partner since 2014, fell from 64,747 votes to 34,759, and from 6 seats to a projected 2. "We stayed on our feet," said its leader Bálint Pásztor. electiontracker.eu/serbia/alliance-of-vojvodina-hungarians-dr-balint-pasztor #Serbia 📊
The Albanian Coalition, Preševo valley parties that signed one list in Kosovo PM Albin Kurti's office, goes from 1 seat to a projected 2 (27,667 votes). Shaip Kamberi was the old house's only Albanian MP; Visar Mehmeti would join him. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
Vučić's Progressives go into opposition for the first time since 2012 (39.1%). He conceded on election night: "We will show them what opposition is." Behind him on the list: Miloš Vučević and Ana Brnabić, still acting president. electiontracker.eu/serbia/aleksandar-vucic-united-serbia #Serbia 📊
Vučić's list carried 20 students, per the electoral commission's records; the Student List, by its own rule, none. Basketball's Željko Rebrača stood for Vučić, his old teammate Dejan Bodiroga for the students. We profiled 20 of Vučić's people. electiontracker.eu/serbia/zeljko-rebraca #Serbia 📊
🇨🇦 One week to go: Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election, Monday, November 2, 2026. Leading: Philip Brown, 54% chance to win, up 2 points over the past week. electiontracker.eu/canada/charlottetown-pei-mayoral-election-2026 #Canada 📊
🇨🇦 Voting today: Toronto Mayoral Election. Leading: Olivia Chow, 86% chance to win. electiontracker.eu/canada/toronto-mayoral-election-2026 #topoli #Canada 📊
🗳️ This week’s votes and each favourite’s chance to win: 🇨🇦 Mon · Toronto Mayoral Election: Olivia Chow 78% 🇮🇱 Tue · Prime Minister of Israel after the election: Gadi Eizenkot 54% 🇧🇬 Sun · Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova 64% +2 more electiontracker.eu/ #elections 📊
🇦🇺 Tomorrow: Huon Valley Mayoral Election. Leading: Abby McKibben, 34% chance to win. electiontracker.eu/australia/huon-valley-mayoral-election-2026 #Australia 📊
🇷🇸 A list put forward by student protesters has won Serbia's election: 52.5% to 39.3% for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia, whose party has governed since 2012. A thread on who they are, what they promise and who stands for them 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/student-list-students-win #Serbia 📊
It promises a vetted anti-corruption police unit, a law on illegal assets, every public contract published, a media regulator free of party control, free textbooks, "a doctor in every village". No Russia sanctions; EU entry by referendum. electiontracker.eu/serbia/student-list-students-win #Serbia 📊
Next: final results, parliament within 30 days, a government within 90 days of its first sitting, a presidential vote by year's end. No prime minister named yet. Chances now: Dejan Šoškić 45%, Ilija Srdanović 23%, Radomir Saičić 17%. electiontracker.eu/serbia/prime-minister-2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 A list put forward by student protesters has won Serbia's election: 52.5% to 39.3% for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia, whose party has governed since 2012. A thread on who they are, what they promise and who stands for them 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/student-list-students-win #Serbia 📊
The Student List has no students on it, by rule, and no leader. Its 250 candidates are doctors, teachers, farmers, actors and professors, the oldest list on the ballot (average age 50.7). First on it: Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist from Novi Sad. electiontracker.eu/serbia/ilija-srdanovic #Serbia 📊
Further down: basketball great Dejan Bodiroga, now head of the EuroLeague (24th), former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić (27th), actor Tihomir Stanić (8th), rapper and lawyer Feđa Dimović (48th). We profiled 23 of them. electiontracker.eu/serbia/dejan-bodiroga #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 A list put forward by student protesters has won Serbia's election: 52.5% to 39.3% for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia, whose party has governed since 2012. A thread on who they are, what they promise and who stands for them 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/student-list-students-win #Serbia 📊
It began on 1 November 2024, when the canopy of Novi Sad's railway station fell and killed 16 people. Students blockaded their faculties and ran open assemblies with no leaders. On election night Novi Sad's celebration fell silent at midnight for 16 minutes. electiontracker.eu/serbia/2026 #Serbia 📊
🇷🇸 Upset: Serbia Parliamentary Election. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.1% of the vote. The day before the vote, Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia had a 69% chance to win, Student List – Students Win 31%. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Segundo turno da eleição presidencial no Brasil: vencedor na cidade do Rio de Janeiro: resultado final. Vencedor: Lula, 51,5% dos votos. Na véspera da… electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/segundo-turno-da-eleicao-presidencial-vencedor-na-cidade-do-rio-de-janeiro-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: in Rio de Janeiro City. Winner: Lula, 51.5% of the vote. The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had a 93% chance to win, Lula 8%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-second-round-winner-in-rio-de-janeiro-city-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Segundo turno da eleição presidencial do Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais: resultado final. Vencedor: Lula. Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 95% de… electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/segundo-turno-da-eleicao-presidencial-1-lugar-em-minas-gerais-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais. Winner: Lula. The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had a 95% chance to win, Lula 4%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-minas-gerais-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição presidencial no Brasil, segundo turno: 1º lugar no Amapá: resultado final. Vencedor: Lula. Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 70% de chance de vencer; Lula,… electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-presidencial-segundo-turno-1-lugar-no-amapa-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá. Winner: Lula. The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had a 70% chance to win, Lula 31%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-amapa-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição para governador do Rio Grande do Norte: vitória de Cadu de Lula. Parabéns! Na véspera da votação, Allyson tinha 73% de chance de vencer; Cadu de Lula, 26%. electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-para-governador-do-rio-grande-do-norte-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset! Congratulations to the new Governor of Rio Grande do Norte, Cadu de Lula, elected with 50.8% of the vote! The day before the vote, Allyson had a 73% chance to win, Cadu de Lula 26%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/rio-grande-do-norte-governor-election-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição presidencial no Brasil 2026: vitória de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, com 51,8% dos votos. Parabéns! Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 79% de chance de vencer; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 22%. electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-presidencial-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset! Congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, re-elected President of Brazil with 51.8% of the vote! The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had a 79% chance to win, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 22%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição presidencial no Brasil: vitória de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, com 51,8% dos votos. Parabéns! Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 83% de chance de vencer; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 18%. electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-presidencial-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊
🇧🇷 Upset! Congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, re-elected President of Brazil with 51.8% of the vote! The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had an 83% chance to win, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 18%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-2026 #Brazil 📊
🇨🇦 Big move: Toronto Mayoral Election, Monday, October 26, 2026. Leading: Olivia Chow, 75% chance to win, up 14 points in a day. electiontracker.eu/canada/toronto-mayoral-election-2026 #topoli #Canada 📊