Election Tracker

Election Tracker

@electiontracker.eu

Elections worldwide: market-implied probabilities before the vote, the live count after it. Posts by itself: a week before each vote, the eve, big moves, the day, the result.

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A twist: Serbia has no president. Vučić resigned on 27 September to lead his list, and the Speaker, Ana Brnabić, became acting president. The new Assembly's Speaker takes that over, and it is the acting president who proposes the prime minister. electiontracker.eu/serbia/ana-brnabic #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.euAna Brnabić: Prime Minister of SerbiaAna Brnabić (born 1975 in Belgrade) is a Serbian politician and former business consultant, a vice-president of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Ana Brnabić: Prime Minister of Serbia? Market-implied probability: <1%. Voting day: Sunday, October 25, 2026.

No one has been proposed as prime minister yet. Chances now: Dejan Šoškić 40%, Ilija Srdanović 23%, Radomir Saičić 7%. Saičić, the chemist who spoke for the list on election night, has a 60% chance of becoming president. electiontracker.eu/serbia/prime-minister-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.euPrime Minister of Serbia? Prediction 2026Prime Minister of Serbia, Sunday, October 25, 2026. Leading: Dejan Šoškić at 40%. Prediction from the market-implied probability of every outcome, refreshed every few minutes.
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On the electoral commission's count so far (8,191 of 8,392 polling stations), the Student List has 140 of the 250 seats: 14 more than it needs to govern alone. Vučić's United Serbia has 104, four minority lists 6. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.7% of the vote.
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Is it a record? Many say so. We found no count of earlier parliaments to compare with (the Assembly lists its MPs' jobs, not their degrees), so we can't confirm it. One square per MP is on our Serbia page, beside the government's formation, live. electiontracker.eu/serbia #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.euSerbia elections 2026: predictionsSerbia: upcoming elections with their dates and the market-implied probability of every outcome, refreshed every few minutes.

🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.8% of the vote.
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🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.8% of the vote.
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The Albanian Coalition, Preševo valley parties that signed one list in Kosovo PM Albin Kurti's office, goes from 1 seat to a projected 2 (27,667 votes). Shaip Kamberi was the old house's only Albanian MP; Visar Mehmeti would join him. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.8% of the vote.

🇷🇸 Beside the Student List, five more lists won seats in Serbia's new parliament, on the final CeSID/Ipsos projection: Vučić's United Serbia 103, and four minority lists with 6 between them. Who they are, in a thread 🧵 electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.8% of the vote.

🗳️ This week’s votes and each favourite’s chance to win: 🇨🇦 Mon · Toronto Mayoral Election: Olivia Chow 78% 🇮🇱 Tue · Prime Minister of Israel after the election: Gadi Eizenkot 54% 🇧🇬 Sun · Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova 64% +2 more electiontracker.eu/ #elections 📊

electiontracker.euElections 2026: calendar and predictionsCurrent market-implied probabilities on who wins elections around the world, refreshed every few minutes.

Next: final results, parliament within 30 days, a government within 90 days of its first sitting, a presidential vote by year's end. No prime minister named yet. Chances now: Dejan Šoškić 45%, Ilija Srdanović 23%, Radomir Saičić 17%. electiontracker.eu/serbia/prime-minister-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.euPrime Minister of Serbia? Prediction 2026Prime Minister of Serbia, Sunday, October 25, 2026. Leading: Dejan Šoškić at 44%. Prediction from the market-implied probability of every outcome, refreshed every few minutes.

🇷🇸 Upset: Serbia Parliamentary Election. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.1% of the vote. The day before the vote, Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia had a 69% chance to win, Student List – Students Win 31%. electiontracker.eu/serbia/parliamentary-election-2026 #Serbia 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Serbia Parliamentary Election resultsSerbia Parliamentary Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Student List – Students Win, 52.1% of the vote.

🇧🇷 Upset! Congratulations to the new Governor of Rio Grande do Norte, Cadu de Lula, elected with 50.8% of the vote! The day before the vote, Allyson had a 73% chance to win, Cadu de Lula 26%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/rio-grande-do-norte-governor-election-2026 #Brazil 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election resultsRio Grande do Norte Governor Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Cadu de Lula, 50.8% of the vote.

🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição presidencial no Brasil 2026: vitória de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, com 51,8% dos votos. Parabéns! Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 79% de chance de vencer; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 22%. electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-presidencial-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊

electiontracker.euEleição presidencial no Brasil 2026: resultadosEleição presidencial no Brasil 2026: resultado final. Vencedor: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 51,8% dos votos.

🇧🇷 Zebra! Eleição presidencial no Brasil: vitória de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, com 51,8% dos votos. Parabéns! Na véspera da votação, Flávio Bolsonaro tinha 83% de chance de vencer; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 18%. electiontracker.eu/pt-br/brasil/eleicao-presidencial-2026 #eleições2026 #Brasil 📊

electiontracker.euEleição presidencial no Brasil 2026: resultadosEleição presidencial no Brasil, domingo, 25 de outubro de 2026: resultado final. Vencedor: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 51,8% dos votos.

🇧🇷 Upset! Congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, re-elected President of Brazil with 51.8% of the vote! The day before the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro had an 83% chance to win, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 18%. electiontracker.eu/brazil/presidential-election-2026 #Brazil 📊

electiontracker.eu2026 Brazil Presidential Election resultsBrazil Presidential Election, Sunday, October 25, 2026: final result. Winner: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 51.8% of the vote.