Devon Whittle

Had some fun this week being back at DFAT to present on AI supply chains (from mines to models). I tested ideas from my work on how trade policy should adapt in light of AI, including to help reduce AI risk. This includes an early attempt to... 1/3

... set out some of the key trade-relevant nodes in the AI supply chain (suggestions always welcome as we continue to iterate). Understanding the supply chain, each country's interest in specific nodes, and the trade rules and tools that can support those interests helps governments... 2/3

... grapple with their trade policy options to protect their core interests, improve their resilience, seize AI's benefits, and improve AI governance. I'm also always looking for others working on/interested in this space - please reach out if that's you (devon.whittle@globalshieldpolicy.org). 3/3

borderlex.netOpinion: Misrules Of Origin - Borderlex - European trade policyThere are increasing calls for the origin of a product imported into the EU to be based on the nationality of a company or its C-suite membership.It may look like a clever fix for circumvention, but i...

Very good piece by John Clarke over at @borderlex.net on the risks with moves to adopt 'rules of control' to replace 'rules of origin' when applying trade measures borderlex.net/2026/10/16/o... (it gets even worse when it comes to similar proposals in the context of digital trade...)

bruegel.orgThe worst of both worlds for EU auto industry policyA new Franco-German agreement risks undermining EU credibility and harming allies by easing climate efforts while endorsing a protectionist approach

Great piece on latest EU auto/trade moves at @bruegel.org: "The proposal is bad trade policy and even worse geopolitics" www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

koreatimes.co.krIPEF members discuss response to supply chain disruptions caused by Middle East crisis - The Korea TimesMembers of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) held a virtual meeting Tuesday to discuss the response to global supply chain disruptions cau...

IPEF (Fund for Technical Assistance and Economic Cooperation) is still a thing - DFAT hosted a Regional Policy Dialogue on Disability-Inclusive Supply Chain Resilience last week in Singapore lnkd.in/p/gtpKJhqe www.facebook.com/cdpo.org/pos...

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

IPEF is still a thing: IPEF members (but not the US) discuss response to supply chain disruptions caused by Middle East crisis (although Korea's chairing of the supply chain body is coming to an end so will be interesting to see who takes up the baton) www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffai...

Devon Whittle reposted

Paul Byrne

@theplanetaryguy.com

This will never stop blowing my mind. A 12-year sequence of real telescope images of a star 133 lightyears away. And around it, four planets slowly orbiting. Four real exoplanets, each more massive than Jupiter, imaged as they move around their host star.

hinrichfoundation.comThe CPTPP needs a secretariat. Japan wants to help. | Article | Hinrich FoundationThe CPTPP has outgrown its current institutional model. Japan’s reported offer to host a permanent secretariat gives members a chance to fix that.

23 Sept

Highlights from the RCEP Joint Ministerial Statement: asean.org/joint-media-... relaunched website (it's pretty minimal, but still more than CPTPP! www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art...), accessions underway, and General Review slowly moving forward with a 'Joint Scoping Paper' coming next year

Devon Whittle reposted

Simon Lester

@simonlester.com

22 Sept

From @devonwhittle.bsky.social: "The CPTPP needs a secretariat. Ministers should take Japan’s offer to host one."

business.inquirer.netAsean to set AI cooperation rulesTrade Undersecretary Allan Gepty MANILA, Philippines — The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is set to lay down common rules on how artificial intelligence (AI) should be used

20 Sept

For RCEP watchers - Ministers are meeting this week to discuss implementation and the general review. Philippines suggests the review could cover new provisions on "digital trade, sustainable development, inclusivity and emerging technologies such as AI" business.inquirer.net/611673/asean...

lnkd.inIn the 14th RCEP Joint Committee (RJC) meeting held in Manila on 11–12 August 2026, RCEP Members continued to discuss ways forward with respect to the proposals of five economies seeking accession to…...In the 14th RCEP Joint Committee (RJC) meeting held in Manila on 11–12 August 2026, RCEP Members continued to discuss ways forward with respect to the proposals of five economies seeking accession to ...

26 Aug

Not much reporting on this, but RCEP's Joint Committee met earlier this month in Manila "Members continued to discuss ways forward with respect to the proposals of five economies seeking accession to the Agreement." lnkd.in/p/g_UqvSmp

The Australian Productivity Commission

26 Aug

Trouble ahead for the Aus-EU FTA? www.news.com.au/world/europe...

Devon Whittle reposted

@pc.gov.au

20 Aug

Out now | The 2026 Trade and Assistance Review shows that budgetary assistance to industry increasingly shifting towards measures targeted at particular industries and sectors.: www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/trad... (1/4)

pc.gov.auTrade and Assistance Review 2024-25The Trade and Assistance Review (TAR) contains the PC’s latest estimates of Australian Government assistance to industry, and provides a summary of developments in industry assistance, trade policy an...

Devon Whittle reposted

The Lowy Institute

@lowyinstitute.bsky.social

19 Aug

Physical AI is next – Australia can be the proving ground | Marina Yue Zhang

lowyinstitute.orgPhysical AI is next – Australia can be the proving groundThe humanoid robotics race is a two-lane contest between China and America, and Australia doesn’t need to enter either lane to win.

18 Aug

I post more about AI on X (x.com/devonwhittle...) but it also will be interesting to see how Australia navigates the trade implications of its AI policy (and vice versa) both current rules and whether new/amended rules are needed: GP as the govt seeks to create Aussie customers for AI firms, 1/3

18 Aug

PPRs as they use data centre investment to create local industry and support researches; digital trade rules and AI transparency regulations; GATS's application to AI services; subsidy concerns around cheap overseas models. 1/3

flint-global.comFrontiers of Trade: AI agents as tradersFlint Global advises international businesses and investors on policy, politics, regulation and competition.

18 Aug

Not to mention the ways AI improves/complicates the physical trading of good itself (see @georgeriddell.bsky.social's excellent piece on that here: flint-global.com/blog/frontie...) 3/3

declaude.orgHow AI text watermarking worksA gentle visual guide to how a statistical mark hides inside generated text, and what erases it.

17 Aug

Pretty cool interactive explainer on how AI companies can watermark text. Even has examples showing how the watermark can survive some editing.

James Padolsey@j11y.io

Wrote a thing about how they watermark AI-generated text: declaude.org/watermarking/

alivetothis.comChapter 7. Catastrophic Risk | Alive to ThisDevon Whittle, Arnagretta Hunter and Greg Sadler on catastrophic and existential risk: how a technology this powerful could go wrong, and what it asks of us now.

14 Aug

For those interested in the potential catastrophic risks from AI and what Australia could be doing about it, I was on the Alive to This video series recently discussing exactly that: www.alivetothis.com/episode-cata...

youtu.beAI on Trial: The US Copyright Fights - Jason Schultz | AI Safety Forum 2026YouTube video by AI Safety Forum

8 Aug

Great presentation by Jason Schultz at the recent Aus AI Safety Forum on AI and copyright in the US (and very relevant to current debates in Australia) - youtu.be/btAXkG7l7z8?...

e61.inTaxing robots: the good news and risks about AI and government revenue – e61 INSTITUTE

6 Aug

New from e61: Taxing robots: the good news and risks about AI and government revenue - e61.in/taxing-robot...

youtu.beHow The UK Works 🫠.YouTube video by Jimmy Rees

3 Aug

I love my UK colleagues, but this YouTube video gave me flashbacks to trying to understand CDOTs and the other very specific features of the UK’s constitutional arrangements in trade negotiations (and then translating this into treaty text!) youtu.be/W5Y8JwEzuvA?...

3 Aug

I smiled at this from @slatestarcodex.bsky.social's latest link round-up. It sometimes seems there's a bunch of people who "like doing hard things", except when the hard thing is international cooperation?

youtube.comThe Case for Mandatory AI Monitoring & Incident Reporting - Devon Whittle | AI Safety Forum 2026YouTube video by AI Safety Forum

3 Aug

My AI Safety Forum presentation on AI incident monitoring and reporting is now online. It's something that works for aviation, pharma, consumer goods, etc, why not for AI companies? www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uoks... (my talk started 5 mins late, so apologies if it seems rushed!)

The text of Aus-Singapore's Protocol on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies (PERES) is out (dfat.gov.au/sites/defaul...). Let's see how it compares to the NZ-Singapore AOTES (mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade...) (this is based on a quick review over breakfast, so mistakes possible / likely)... 1/11

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

Singapore and Australia to establish an "Economic Resilience Dialogue" and conclude a protocol to their FTA on "Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies" (sounds like NZ-Singapore's AOTES www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/nz-...) - www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-...

AOTES has a Scope provision that says it only applies "in the event of a supply chain disruption or an imminent supply chain disruption" and "only to essential supplies traded between the Parties". PERES's doesn't, but doesn't need this given how each article is drafted 10/11.

Finally, AOTES also has detailed facilitation and response provisions (e.g. to talk to logistics providers during a disruption). PERES doesn't - but some of this may already be covered by SAFTA's existing trade facilitation/customs procedures provisions. 11/11

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

PERES's consultation provision (first screenshot) is less detailed than AOTES (other screenshots). PERES also doesn't have the carve-out for SPS and fisheries quota management that AOTES has. 8/11

(an aside - PERES Art 2's requirement to give notice of restrictions on exports of essential supplies, says these are done "pursuant to" Art 3. Art 3 only applies to "supply chain disruptions", so that would seem to limit notification of GATT Art XI:2(a) measures) 9/11

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

AOTES says the parties cannot use Art XI:2(a) of the GATT in relation to "essential supplies". Art XI:2(a) allows for export restrictions "to prevent or relieve critical shortages of foodstuffs or other products essential to the exporting contracting party" 6/11

PERES has a "shall endeavour" obligation to not use Art XI:2(a) to restrict essential supply exports, and an obligation to limit any restriction imposed and notify the other party if a restriction is imposed. 7/11

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

Under the AOTES there is a 7 page list of products by HS code (HS-4 with a non-published version at HS-6 digit level), separate for each party. 4/11

PERES's definition of "supply chain disruption" (image 1) is shorter than AOTES (image 2) (mostly due to examples). Substantive differences are that AOTES applies to services and requires "significant" impact not just impact. PERES also says "as determined by either Party". 5/11

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

Australia formalises its Economic Resilience Dialogue with Singapore, meeting within one year and then as agreed. 2/11

PERES's definition of "essential supplies" is "petroleum oils, such as diesel, and liquefied natural gas" and "other goods critical to either Party's economy" as set out in a separate MOU on Essential Supplies (from October 2025, but I can't find a copy online). 3/11

open.substack.comFTAs: Reforms coming to Australia's approach to trade negotiationsLast week, the Trade and Investment Agreements (Consultation) Bill 2026 (the Bill) was introduced to the Australian Parliament. The Bill is meant to “improve transparency and community input into FTA ...

9 July

I wrote a summary of the new Bill that would require Australia to advocate for certain issues in trade negotiations, prohibit certain outcomes, and create new transparency requirements (subject to a narrow scope...) open.substack.com/pub/tradenot...

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

Australia's Trade and Investment Agreements (Consultation) Bill 2026 will reform negotiation of FTAs/BITs. Some interesting design choices, eg scope, it prohibits signing agreements that have ISDS (among other things), and requires independent analysis of agreements. www.dfat.gov.au/news/news/tr...

24 July

The draft ALP National Platform also contains this paragraph - doesn’t mean the government will do this, but renegotiating LMT waivers across Aus past agreements is a big task! laborconference.org.au/files/2026_A...

ministers.ag.gov.auministers.ag.gov.au

16 July

Will this help with US s301 forced labour investigation tariffs? ministers.ag.gov.au/media-centre...

Australian Human Rights Institute@austhumanrights.bsky.social

LISTEN | Professor @justinenolan.bsky.social speaks to the ABC's AM program about the Australian Government's significant modern slavery reforms announced overnight, including introducing a new criminal offence for companies that fail to prevent modern slavery. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

abc.net.auNew laws to crackdown on modern slavery - ABC listenThe Albanese government will create a new criminal offence for large companies that failing to prevent the use of slaves in their supply chains.

Devon Whittle reposted

Financial Times

@financialtimes.com

ft.trib.alUS relaxes export controls on advanced chips and drones for UAEGulf state will receive access to sophisticated American technology

US relaxes export controls on advanced chips and drones for UAE ft.trib.al/YoysSKw

Devon Whittle reposted

Simon Lester

@simonlester.com

Replying to @devonwhittle.bsky.social

I suppose there's no chance Australia would file a complaint under the AUSFTA?

ielp.worldtradelaw.netGovernments Make Their Case Against Section 301 Forced Labor TariffsLast month, USTR made a determination in its Section 301 investigation into "Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure To Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition o...

Thanks to @simonlester.com post on governments' comments to the US's consultations on its 301 force labour investigations ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/07/gove... - here's the comments that Australia submitted - comments.ustr.gov/s/commentdet... 1/2

Highlights include: emphasise on AUSFTA applying, Australia has effective framework on forced labour, and the 12.5% tariff is disproportionate and treats us differently to others with similar forced labour regimes such as the UK. 2/2

forbes.comOpenAI Reportedly Pitches Granting U.S. Government 5% StakeThe proposal being discussed by OpenAI and Trump administration officials purportedly calls for all major AI companies to grant the government a 5% stake.

3 July

As always, @matt_levine's take on the OpenAI 5% offer to the USG is the best take. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Forbes@forbes.com

The proposal being discussed by OpenAI and Trump administration officials purportedly calls for all major AI companies to grant the government a 5% stake.

3 July

Not much too surprising in DFAT's Trade 2040 Taskforce Report, but the AI section is trying to walk some fine lines between regulation and investment positioning. Also IPEF is still a thing in the Report at least. www.dfat.gov.au/publications...

3 July

gov.ukComprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) joint ministerial statement on expansion, implementation and co-operation: 26 June 2026

26 June

CPTPP Ministerial Statement: working on Costa Rica's accession instrument, Uruguay's AWG advancing, discussions starting w/ UAE, Philippines and Indonesia, new working group on ROOs, custom admin and trade facilitation (with reference to circumvention). www.gov.uk/government/p...

26 June

Also reference to Japan hosting a workshop in July as part of EU and ASEAN co-operation, progress on upgrade negotiations, and that "any further [EU/ASEAN] initiatives, including trade and investment dialogues, will be carried out by consensus of the CPTPP Parties."

en.yna.co.krIPEF members discuss response to supply chain disruptions caused by Middle East crisis | Yonhap News AgencySEOUL, May 26 (Yonhap) -- Members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) held a vir...

23 June

Devon Whittle@devonwhittle.bsky.social

IPEF is still a thing - "IPEF members discuss response to supply chain disruptions caused by Middle East crisis" (although only nine members participated) en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2026...

reuters.comArgentina seeks to join Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty, minister saysArgentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno said ‌on Tuesday the country intends to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and will present its applicati...

4 June

Argentina seeking to join the CPTPP - www.reuters.com/world/americ...