Devolved Election Projections

Our projection on the latest Norstat poll for the next general election in Scotland: 🎗️ SNP — 43 🌳 Con — 5 🔶 LD — 5 🌹 Lab — 4 This is a strong poll for the SNP which would see them take back most of the seats they lost in 2024.

Its solid for the Tories who are flat, but also for the Lib Dems who could lose a lot of votes but only 2 seats. The Scottish Greens will also be happy with this showing. This is the second Scottish Westminster poll to have Restore winning a decent number of votes.

Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.

After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time. 🌹 Lab — 329 🌳 Con — 126 🔶 LD — 68 ➡️ Ref — 48 🎗️ SNP — 46 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 6 🦁 DUP — 4 🌱 GP — 4 ⚪ Others — 11 devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border. Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.

No alternative system would give them a majority, but they are only on 28% of the vote.

A total of 14 parties would win at least 1 seat, + 2 independents and the Speaker.

Plaid are on course for gains in Wales. Meanwhile 6 parties and an independent are projected to win at least one seat in Northern Ireland out of 18 as fragmentation of the party system continues across the UK.

devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru 🌼 PC — 42 ➡️ Ref — 34 🌹 Lab — 12 🌳 Con — 7 🌱 GP — 1 A good showing for @plaidcymru.bsky.social but wipe out for the @libdems.org.uk Make your own on devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Here are the regional breakdowns for the biggest 3, Plaid Cymru in the West, Labour in south, Reform in the East.

Here are alternative systems, STV could resurrect the Lib Dems, so would chaning to a more proportional version of AMS.

devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Here it is seat by seat, a lot of teal and dark green, but one red seat in most places.

devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

You can see what UK elections could look like under NI style STV, Welsh small lists and Scottish AMS here: devolvedelections.co.uk/electoral-re...

Electoral Reform Society@electoralreform.bsky.social

The UK has decades of experience with fair voting systems that could be examined by the new National Commission

buff.lyWhat is a National Commission on Electoral Reform?The Prime Minister made history last week announcing that he intends to fight the next election with a manifesto commitment on electoral reform and that he will set up a national commiss

Devolved Election Projections reposted

Replying to @devolvedelections.bsky.social

And at the UK level. The big variations for the Lib Dems are particularly stark.

We've added new shadings for each party in all our maps, here you can see where our Nowcast thinks the NI parties will get their votes in May.

And at the UK level. The big variations for the Lib Dems are particularly stark.

devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

We have this for every map, including Senedd and Holyrood and every form of Electoral Reform devolvedelections.co.uk

Our Scottish Westminster projection based on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll 🎗️ SNP — 25 🌹 Lab — 20 🌳 Con — 7 🔶 LD — 5 The SNP would retake the lead in seats but not by as big a margin as Labour's vote holds up in the central belt. devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

This is a much stronger showing for Labour than yesterday's Survation poll, it's pretty far from our Nowcast but this one will go into our average since it was funded by a party. On 5% this is a surprisingly high result for Restore.

Our model has a full 12 seats being decided by under 1%, Labour are narrowly winning most of them ahead of the SNP. All 12 are pure coin flips.

Using our new Westminster model on the latest @survation.bsky.social poll of Scotland for the @snp.org we project: 🎗️ SNP — 46 seats 🔶 LD — 5 🌳 Con — 3 🌹 Lab — 3 The SNP are swamping Labour as they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019 Make your own on devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

On these numbers, we don't project a single seat to be won with over 50% of the vote. A few Lib Dem seats and the SNP in Dundee are pretty close.

As always we won't add this to our database because it's a party funded poll, but it is pretty close to our Nowcast. The only seat that's different is Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire flips on these numbers but stays Lib Dem in our Nowcast.

The Tories nudge ahead of Reform on seats in our Nowcast as Reform's slump continues. Labour are out in front. 🌹 Lab — 296 🌳 Con — 109 ➡️ Ref — 96 🔶 LD — 72 🎗️ SNP — 45 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 GPEW — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

Some kind of Lab-LD deal would be the easiest path to a government.

In NI, any recovery for SF or the DUP would flip some of those UUP seats. In Wales, Plaid are on course for an excellent election. If but they could get close to their 2026 numbers it would be a blow out. In Scotland, the SNP are targetting most of the seats they lost to Labour in 2024.

Reform are still ahead of the Conservatives in our polling average but the Tories lead more seats. Under most of the PR systems on our electoral reform page Farage's party will still be second in terms of seats: devolvedelections.co.uk/electoral-re...

What if the UK used region/nation-wide lists? On today's numbers it could look like: 🌹 Lab — 185 ➡️ Ref — 146 🌳 Con — 125 🐤 LD — 63 🌱 GPEW — 57 ⬅️ Res — 17 🎗️ SNP — 17 ⚫ Inds — 12 ☘️ SF — 5 🌼 PC — 4 ✊ WP — 4 🦁 DUP — 4 🤝 APNI — 3 🌱 GP S — 2 🔷 UUP — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1

Coalition talks would be messy, to say the least. Try making your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/electoral-re...

You can try your own numbers, either UK wide or per region. The beauty of this region/nation wide version is that if you try it in a region/nation then tactical voting is voided and you get the exact result that would happed under whatever numbers you picked (except for Others and Inds).

Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and SF lead in at least one area. But, leading doesn't matter much under this system since it's very proportional. devolvedelections.co.uk/electoral-re...

With a Gallagher Index of under 2 this very closely reflects voter wishes. You could drive it even lower if you used a single national list.

What if the UK used STV? On today's polling we think it be around: 🌹 Labour — 188 ➡️ Reform — 155 🌳 Conservative — 136 🌱 Green — 53 🐤 Lib Dem — 52 🎗️ SNP — 25 ⚫ Inds — 10 🌼 Plaid Cymru — 10 ☘️ Sinn Féin — 5 🦁 DUP — 4 🔷 UUP — 3 🌹 SDLP — 3 ✊ Workers — 3 🤝 Alliance — 2 Ⓣ TUV — 1

devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/electoral-re...

Here's how the transfer estimate in some of my old haunts, starting with Fermanagh, Armagh & Tyrone

South Cambridgeshire:

All constituencies have between 4 and 7 seats which are made by Legoing together existing constituencies. I've tried to make them as intuitive as possible. You can search by their new name or the real one.

@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social

You can also try it under AV, SV and a few variants of List PR and AMS. More info: devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/introdu...

Devolved Election Projections reposted

Mark McGeoghegan

This is a pretty accurate projection, especially for a by-election, with a mean error across party projections of +/-1.7ppts. Variation v. actual results: Labour: +0.6 Greens: -2.2 Conservatives: -0.4 Reform: +4.2 Lib Dems: +1.2 Restore: -1.4 Others: -2

Devolved Election Projections@devolvedelections.bsky.social

Our Westminster model, going live tomorrow, has Labour winning Holborn & St Pancras by about 45% to 30% (Adding together Green and Feinstein). This is a general election model not a by-election model so candidates aren't considered.

Our first DevolvedElections Westminster projection on recent polling: 🌹 Lab — 301 ➡️ Reform — 121 🌳 Con — 77 🔶 LD — 72 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP — 45 🐉 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 Green — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 3 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Speaker — 1 ⬅ Restore — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

The easiest path the a majority is Lib-Lab with Labour close to being able to go it alone.

We are committed to our core aim of focusing on the Devolved nations, so you can make customisable projections for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. I think this is the only one for NI and we factor in abstentionism throughout. All come with their own polling averages.

theconversation.comThree of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go?New prime minister Andy Burnham is facing renewed calls for independence votes.

Devolved Election Projections reposted

Eoghan Kelly

@eoghanly.bsky.social

Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go? theconversation.com/three-of-the...

We have a couple of big things coming up over the next few days. 👀