Stanimir Dobrev

Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo.bsky.social

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For September the Russian traffic accident continues to show a significant reduction of travel between cities while local commute routes were less impacted. This is in line with other reporting showing that long trips were most affected by the fuel shortage.

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The Russian Foreign Ministry said that it is working on proposals to ensure the safety of grain exports via the Black Sea naming Turkey as one of the countries discussing such exports. However they are ruling our reviving the previous grain deal. www.kommersant.ru/doc/9061002

kommersant.ruМИД: Россия обсуждает обеспечение безопасности поставок зерна через Черное мореПодробнее на сайте
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With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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But for Russian road transportation companies the increase in rates do not mean an increase in profitability. This is due to the increase in the tax burden, costs associated with electronic documents, higher prices of spare parts and higher fuel prices.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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The cost of shipping from Turkey also rose sharply. Transporting goods from Turkey via Iran by road is now 50-100% more expensive. This is due to the closure of the ferry service from Turkey to Tuapse. The border checkpoints are also now congested because of this.

The route through Georgia and Verkhniy Lars has not seen increases as this route is used to export Russian goods to Turkey. In Q4 2026 the current high rates are expected to remain with a possibility of further increases due to seasonal factors.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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Market participants however say that they are yet to see a drastic change in the demand for freight in Southern Russia. Whilst in August and September demand for shipping to the south increased demand for shipping from the south actually decreased.

The closure of the Black Sea has caused cargo traffic to shift to the port of St. Petersburg leading to a 20-30% increase in the cost of removing containers from the port and increased demand for road transport.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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The Pogranichny checkpoint reopened after renovations increasing its throughput from 144 to 1,300 vehicles per day. October the Kraskino checkpoint reopened tripling its throughput to 750 vehicles per day

And at the largest Zabaikalsk checkpoint a new access road section designed for heavy-duty trucks opened in October so there's now a separate lane for passenger cars and trucks. The increase in road freight prices is now leading to redirection of freight to rail.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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In Q3 rates for transportation by cover trucks from China rose by 15-20%. The main drivers for that are the higher fuel prices and the the redirection of traffic to the Manzhouli-Zabaikalsk border crossing due to difficulties with entry permits in Kazakhstan.

This means the route is now longer. At the Primorsky Krai and Zabaikalsk road crossings with China the situation has improved from Q1 2026 when crossing by truck took 5-14 days.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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Import requests grew by 31% for China and by 28% for Uzbekistan. The weakening rubles reduces demand from importers but still demand for shipments from China rose by 18% compared to August and transportation rates by 10-15%.

The cost to ship a full truck from Shanghai to Moscow is now 15 500 to 16 600 rubles. Demand for road shipments from China is being driven by the closure of the ports in the south, the decrease of available maritime shipments and the overloading of the Russian Far East routes.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

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In Q3 2026 weighted average rates for tilt transportation and in the refrigerated segment increased by 20%, including due to fluctuations in fuel prices. Rates for tilt transportation continued to rise even after the fuel prices started decreasing.

The number of requests for transportation for export decreased by 21% year over year with demand for the most popular destinations dropping as well. For shipments to Kyrgyzstan the drop was 68%, for Kazakhstan 22% and for Belarus by 15%.

With the closure of the Black Sea demand for transporting freight by roan in Russia rouse with the costs for the route from Turkey to Russia rising by 50-100% and for the Chinese one by 15-20% but due to higher taxes and fuel price it's not really more profitable.

Demand for transportation by road in Q3 2026 in Russia rose by 20% year over year and by 24% over Q2 2026. Prices rose in July then fell in August after which at the start of Autumn they rose again only to now be falling once more.

In July the fuel shortage was affecting the market then the strikes on the warehouses impacted logistics as a whole. This was followed by the complete closure of Russia's southern port and after that came the introduction of the news mandatory electronic documents for shipments.

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RusHydro's hydroelectric power plant Boguchanskaya wants to cancel its contract for supplying electricity to the Rusal owned Boguchansky aluminum smelter. Currently the price for kWh is 0,5 rubles and the power plant wants to raise it 20 1,2 rubles. www.kommersant.ru/doc/9044217

kommersant.ruАлюминий теряет напряжение«РусГидро» и «Русал» спорят о стоимости электроэнергии Богучанской ГЭС