Dan Gay

Dan Gay

@dangay.bsky.social

Political economist who advises on and writes about economics and sustainable development, international trade & the least developed countries. Former UN. Scottish. Likes running, cycling & the outdoors. www.emergenteconomics.com | dangay.substack.com

1.1K followers1.4K following1.9K posts

All of the African companies listed on African stock exchanges are worth about $600bn, which together makes them worth only about 40% of the expected IPO value of Anthropic.

A coupe of things jumped out at me from the IMF meetings in Bangkok. The world economy is increasingly reliant on Asia and developing countries are increasingly trading with themselves. Makes you wonder about the future role of the US and Europe.

- Since 1990 Asian economies have accounted for almost two-thirds of global economic growth. In 2026 they contributed a record 68% of world growth. - Half of developing countries’ trade is now with one another, reflecting a shift from earlier patterns of dependence on developed export markets.

The economics Nobel is almost entirely dominated by a small group of US universities. Four prize winners out of 101 have come from the global South. Mainstream economics journal articles focus overwhelmingly on the US. This isn't a proper way to do science. dangay.substack.com/p/economics-...

Just when Burnham cuddles up to the EU, it faces the possibility of disintegration. 'if the nationalist right held power in Spain, France, Poland and Italy all at once, “I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say it’s the end of the European Union as we’ve known it.”' giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

giftarticle.ft.comThe elections that could remake EuropeIn the space of 12 months, four of the five biggest EU member states will go to the ballot box. The bloc may never be the same

As Robin Wigglseworth says in FT Alphaville, "You don’t have to be American and affiliated with MIT to win an economics Nobel — but it helps!" Vindication of the brilliance of US universities and particularly MIT? Evidence of western hegemony in mainstream economic methods? I know what I think.

View full thread

Some countries do manage to include all postcodes in growth. There are certainly much more equal countries than Britain that have also shared growth much better - eg. Norway, Sweden, Denmark, France, Germany, the low countries.

All in all Ganesh seems to have churned out a nasty, negative retort in a fit of pique at a Labour PM who finally made a decent speech and floated some decent policies. One of the worst pieces i've read in the FT for a long time.

View full thread

"A Labour government exists to steer cash to its own people until the economic waters close over it." "Its own people?" What does that even mean? Only Labour voters? Does Ganesh mean the working or middle classes? Wouldn't steering cash to them be a good thing, given decades of rising inequality?

"The growth must also touch “every postcode”, as if that ever happens anywhere," says Ganesh. Austerity and the resulting underinvestment caused Britain's decade of stagnation and inequality. The precious little growth that's occurred has been terribly distributed. The UK doesn't need more cuts.

View full thread

"The question is whether it wants growth more than it wants other things: equality, sovereignty, climate goals, low immigration." That's just bad economics: not all of these things involve trade-offs. Eg. equality, climate goals and economic growth are absolutely compatible.

"His inner self comes out in blurted, half-withdrawn remarks." Eh? Was he listening to a different speech? Burnham was nothing if not emphatic. Fault the emotional stuff, yes, but not the strength of delivery.

"Even when he argued for unpicking Brexit, he framed it as a means of controlling immigration as much as a spur to trade." No that's not what he said. He mooted the idea of closer EU relations mainly for trade-related reasons. He didn't actually say Britain should rejoin the EU, as Ganesh implies.

@unlearn16.bsky.social am I right or completely deluded?

Dan Gay@dangay.bsky.social

Worth a listen. The social and political awareness of some contemporary economists contrasts with the physics-envious mathematicians who taught me a few decades ago. Maybe i'm out of touch with academia but it does seem as though things might be improving in some quarters. youtu.be/aNYDMfdD6pg?...

Yesterday France moved closer to fascism after the far-right Rassemblement National quadrupled its number of seats in the Senate. This is the former National Front, one of whose founders was in the Waffen SS. Marine's dad was imprisoned for holocaust denial, dismissing it as a 'detail of history'.

The party is supported by France’s billionaires. Never mind the country walking (nothing sleepy about it) toward fascism, unfortunately the rise of the far right sets back the chances of making the super-rich pay their way.

dangay.substack.comWe need to tax billionairesThe mass upward transfer of riches in recent decades has lent the super-rich unsurpassed power, driving inequality and distorting perceptions and politics. It’s one of the great challenges of the age.

Exactly, and the list of guests dining with Xi is why the risk of a US-China conflict is exaggerated. US-China corporatism shares common cause. The 65 wars currently going on are bigger problems. www.npr.org/2026/06/09/n...

npr.orgConflicts are on the rise globally, at the highest level since WWII, data showsGlobal conflicts surged to the highest number tallied by Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Fatalities were the highest on record since 1994, with approximately 244,600 people killed in conflict in 2025.
Erik Angner@erikangner.com

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." – Mussolini www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/u...

The LSE's appointment of Rory Stewart as a Professor in the Dept. of International Relations mainstreams someone who's part of the problem, not the solution. Colonial governor in an illegal war; misunderstanding of basic economics; opposition to fair taxation... substack.com/@dangay/note...

substack.comDr Dan Gay (@dangay)The London School of Economics has appointed Rory Stewart as Professor in Practice in the LSE Department of International Relations. What's disturbing is the mainstreaming and legitimisation of some...

The recommendations to improve data and connectivity are a bit hackneyed. But I fully agree with the need to "improve analytical and negotiating capacity to assess digital trade commitments and help shape emerging rules." Negotiations support is sometimes under-prioritised but is vital.

A simpler public tender system sounds good but is just the sort of industrial policy that the EU criticises in the likes of China. Surely it could also face challenge via WTO Govt Procurement Agreement (even though GPA only has 49 members and doesn't include China)? www.reuters.com/world/china/...

reuters.comEU proposes simpler public tender rules, 'Buy European' criteria to cut foreign dependenceThe European Commission has proposed new ​rules for public tenders that would create an EU-wide platform to improve access and slash paperwork for companies, and give ‌EU governments the option to exc...

Dan Gay reposted

Replying to @jmiers230.bsky.social

In recent cases, it's not that AI somehow "escaped containment" or "went rogue." That's anthropomorphizing at best. It's more like if a Boston Dynamics robot dog nudged open an already open door and walked in.

AI isn't going to result in some godlike super-consciousness that overtakes human intelligence, but machine learning and massive computing power without our understanding and control could unleash enormous damage. Tech leaders call for AI slowdown - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

giftarticle.ft.comRivals Altman and Musk rally behind Dario Amodei’s call for an AI slowdownWarring tech bosses unite behind warnings that humans could lose control of the technology

In this, it's a bit like the atomic bomb on steroids - AI doesn't have to possess intelligence to be capable of massive harm. What if an agent swarm hacked a lab and let a nasty virus out? It's being developed faster than we need. Nobody understands it properly and it's largely unregulated.

Dan Gay reposted

Asked if the Government considers the masked thugs swarming British ports “far right” Andy Burnham’s spokesman replies that “it's an operational matter for the police to set out their response to the protests on the ground. So I will leave them to respond to that.”

Thank God for those financial market analysts, propping up democracy like they do. Without them how would us poor simpletons understand those trade-offs?🙄

Smart glasses: “The biggest advance in pervert technology since the trenchcoat.”😂 “We will never have more money than billionaires but we can always be funnier and more interesting,” says an EHE co-founder.

Tell me again we shouldn't use the f-word. “I think we should be doing 30 to 40 targeted assassinations per night,” Ben-Gvir said. “Not just those who pose an immediate threat. There are people there who don’t deserve to live . . . They are not even people.”

"For the half of humanity living on under $4,000 per year, development is a chief concern," writes Tim Hirschel-Burns in Jacobin, in a decent attempt to link opposition to the genocide in Gaza with the need dor a wider progressive US foreign policy. jacobin.com/2026/07/left...

jacobin.comThe Left Needs Its Own Foreign PolicyOutrage at US complicity in the war on Gaza has pushed many Americans to think about international politics for the first time. The Left should seize this moment to push its vision of how the global o...

China’s economy is growing more slowly, according to a report today. Many economists and China critics will wrongly seize on the news as proof that the Chinese model is failing and that the US and EU are doing better in comparison. It isn't, and they're not. substack.com/@dangay/note...

substack.comDr Dan Gay (@dangay)China’s economy is growing slower than it has in decades, according to a report today. GDP expanded 4.3% in the second quarter on a year earlier, below official targets. Many mainstream economists a...

“We were outplayed.” “The Iranians are experienced negotiators and they brought teams of experts with them who knew these issues inside and out. The US did not, and so unilaterally put our side at a disadvantage.”

Good point about agency: "Exposure to geopolitical shocks is determined not only by dependence on external markets... but also by a country’s capacity to influence the decisions that affect those flows and to defend its economic interests when disruption occurs. southasianvoices.org/ec-m-bd-n-sa...

southasianvoices.orgSouth Asia’s Gulf Dependence: Lessons from the Iran War – South Asian VoicesThe war in the Middle East has exposed South Asia's economic dependence on Gulf countries, highlighting the need to build resilience.