Dan Bertolet

Dan Bertolet

@danbertolet.bsky.social

I think it's good when cities are legal, and I work at Sightline Institute to make that happen. My takes on here, though, are no less than 100% mine.

1.3K followers300 following468 posts

Back-of-the-envelope, the new IZ study estimates that the typical CA renter household paid an extra ~$110 per month because of the homebuilding IZ thwarted. Meanwhile, homeowners benefit from IZ because home prices rise more. IZ is one of the biggest urban planning mistakes of the modern era.

Dan Bertolet@danbertolet.bsky.social

Note to Seattle policymakers who want to expand MHA: The most rigorous study ever done on IZ found that the typical program in CA reduces homebuilding by nearly one third. And all renters pay the price in higher rents caused by the worsened shortage. Unfunded IZ is a regressive policy.

Diced another way, for each one of the 8,990 low-income homes created by IZ over the 5-year study period, ~120 renter households paid an extra ~$110/month, adding up to ~$800k per IZ home. Not only is IZ regressive, it's also inefficient compared with other ways of funding affordable housing!

Until now, the academic research on IZ has been mostly inconclusive because of all the confounding variables in real life cities. This study utilizes a statewide change in IZ's legal status to isolate its effects, and quantifies each program's stringency. Case closed! Here's a good summary:

davisvanguard.orgNew Study Finds California Inclusionary Zoning Rules Reduce Housing Construction by Nearly One-Third - Davis VanguardA new University of California, Irvine working paper concluded that California's mandatory inclusionary zoning policies significantly reduce housing production, estimating that the state's typical aff...

Good on CM Foster for stepping up on dialing back MHA! Not so good, though, about expanding MHA into NR zones. IZ is especially bad for small scale projects, which is why Oregon state law bans IZ for projects with 10 units or less. And the only real way to get the IZ dials right is to fund it.

publicola.comGreater Seattle: Councilmember Foster Breaks the MHA Logjam - PubliColaBy Josh Feit Councilmember Dionne Foster > Mayor Katie Wilson You couldn’t have a clearer juxtaposition. Mayor Wilson tried to…

I wrote this to make the case for funded IZ in WA's TOD bill, but it's true for IZ anywhere, in any economic conditions. There is no dial setting for unfunded IZ that makes it harmless. A lower setting reduces the damage but also reduces the benefit. It's a zero sum game!

sightline.orgTo Fix Inclusionary Zoning, Fund It | Sightline InstituteTakeaways On Labor Day weekend, Sound Transit opened four more stops of its light rail line north of Seattle. But when I took my inaugural ride, I had my eye on something equally important as the shin...

Wildfires like the one that recently destroyed ~800 homes in Spokane create an urgent need for rapidly deployable, low-cost housing. Mobile dwellings could be housing people who've lost their homes right now - if they were legal. This is one reason to pass a state MDU bill but not the only one...

Dan Bertolet@danbertolet.bsky.social

Portland's legalization of mobile dwellings is a total success story. In the neighborhood surveyed, MDUs have overtaken ADUs. MDUs are the lowest-cost, quickest to deploy type of home there is. They should be legal on residential lots in all cities. www.sightline.org/2026/08/19/s...

Portland's legalization of mobile dwellings is a total success story. In the neighborhood surveyed, MDUs have overtaken ADUs. MDUs are the lowest-cost, quickest to deploy type of home there is. They should be legal on residential lots in all cities. www.sightline.org/2026/08/19/s...

sightline.orgSeven Lessons from Portland’s Mobile Dwelling Experiment | Sightline InstituteA new survey reveals the growing popularity of this low-cost, flexible housing solution.

Bellingham may be the first WA city to legalize mobile dwellings in residential neighborhoods. MDUs are the least expensive, fasted to deploy housing type there is. MDUs should be legal in all cities, which is why @sightline.org is working on statewide legislation in both WA and OR.

Catie Gould@citizen-cate.bsky.social

"Mobile dwelling units are an important, low-cost housing option and a rare opportunity to make substantial progress toward our affordability goals." - Councilmember Jace Cotton BELLINGHAM, lets go! 😍 Read more at: www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/a...

And here's a good thread on why inclusionary zoning harms the very people it's intended to help when it impedes the construction of new homes. bsky.app/profile/maxd...

The idea that the wealthy, the middle class, and the poor are all in completely separate housing markets with no overlap ignores how things work in the real world. In the absence of new high end housing, wealthy people outbid the middle class for the best available existing housing and renovate it.

Excellent discussion of how a land value tax can help cities get more housing built and boost economic development in their downtowns. WA state could authorize the equivalent of an LVT with the Vibrant Cities Act, which will be a top legislative priority for @sightline.org in the 2027 session.

David Roberts@volts.wtf

Read/listen all about how a "land value tax" can discourage land speculation & encourage dense building on the highest value land, ie, land near urban cores. www.volts.wtf/p/want-less-...

Vancouver BC's Villages Plan is the first proposal in many decades in any North American city that would substantially push apartment zones into the leafy neigbhorhoods away from noisy, polluted arterials. Public input has been mostly negative, big surprise. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...

David Roberts@volts.wtf

"Corridor zoning" amounts to jamming low-income residents into big, bland apartment buildings alongside stroads, where they can serve as a buffer, absorbing all the noise & air pollution cars produce, protecting the precious single-family homes that dominate everywhere around them. It's abominable.

Vancouver's proposed Village Plan would allow small apartment buildings on three to four blocks surrounding 17 designated centers. In other words, a big step for apartments not on dangerous, polluted arterial streets. Public hearing is tomorrow 7/14 at 6pm. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...

sightline.orgIn Pictures: The Possibilities of Vancouver’s New Villages Plan | Sightline InstituteThe Four/Five design prioritizes green space, daylight, affordability, and accessibility—all for greater connection and community.

It's tunnel vision to focus on MHA generating funds for affordable housing. It can! But it comes at the cost of raising rents for everyone else. Because no housing gets built until the worsening shortage pushes up rents high enough to offset the MHA fee. And that hits lower-income renters hardest.

seattletimes.comSeattle walks back plan to lower fees funding affordable housingDays before a deal to lower developer fees that fund affordable housing was expected to be released to the public, City Hall is backing away from the idea.

One reason this backsliding never ends is because the deal itself reinforced the idea that taxing housing to pay for housing is fine as long as it’s calibrated. No. Unfunded inclusionary zoning is bad policy that harms renters in all economic conditions and it should be abolished everywhere.

Erica C. Barnett@ericacbarnett.bsky.social

BREAKING: A deal that would have given housing developers a partial holiday on mandatory affordable housing fees has fallen through. The agreement, brokered between private-market developers, affordable housing developers, and the mayor's office, was supposed to culminate in legislation on Monday.

Spokane Councilmember Klitzke is leading the charge for state legislation that would authorize the equivalent of a land value tax: “A property tax that exempts buildings and shifts the burden onto land would give us a new and powerful tool to fill in our gaps while keeping Spokane affordable.”

spokesman.comMost Spokane homeowners would pay less tax under reform proposal. Here's who would pay moreSome Spokane politicians want to replace the existing property tax system with one that shifts tax burden from homes, apartments and many commercial properties and place it instead onto parking lots ...

Excited to be working on a new approach to a land value tax that would be legal in WA state. Tax buildings less and land more and you'll get more new buildings and less vacant land. It's a non-zoning solution for mitigating the housing shortage, and it's value capture done right.

sightline.orgYes, a Land Value Tax Is Possible in Washington State | Sightline InstituteA new report modeling a property tax building exemption in Spokane rebalances incentives toward community goals, encouraging homebuilding and discouraging in-city vacant land speculation.

Good news for cash-strapped cities hesitant to upzone: "Building homes near existing jobs, stores, and transit saves public dollars, in both up-front infrastucture and ongoing maintenance, and produces more property taxes per acre than local gov'ts can expect from development at the edge of town."

pew.orgBuilding Homes Near Jobs, Stores, and Transit Saves Public DollarsAmid a national housing shortage, momentum is growing at the state and local levels to make it easier to build more homes—a proven way of reducing unaffordable rents and home prices. A key question fa...

Virginia and Kentucky just passed state bills to enable land value taxes. Renewed interest in LVT has been popping up all of the country. @sightline.org is working with legislators and advocates to develop a bill for 2027 in Washington. progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/two-states...

progressandpoverty.substack.comTwo States Pass Land Value Tax Enabling Legislation -- Landscape 8With back-to-back wins in Virginia and Kentucky, land value taxation is re-emerging as a viable policy tool.

SF should just go all the way and eliminate IZ altogether. Even at 5% it will kill marginal homebuilding projects. It will do less damage than if it wasn't lowered, but there is no magic threshold below which undfunded IZ is harmless. It's like watching someone go through the stages of grief.

Dan Bertolet@danbertolet.bsky.social

San Francisco is moving in the right direction on inclusionary zoning. It will reduce its IZ requirement to 5 percent of units, and to compensate, will double its housing trust fund, which is mostly funded from property taxes. Property tax is a much better way to fund rent-restricted housing!

San Francisco is moving in the right direction on inclusionary zoning. It will reduce its IZ requirement to 5 percent of units, and to compensate, will double its housing trust fund, which is mostly funded from property taxes. Property tax is a much better way to fund rent-restricted housing!

connectcre.comLurie Seeks to Lower Inclusionary Rate, Increase Annual Contribution to Housing Trust Fund - Connect CRESan Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie introduced two proposals to help spur the production of housing in the city. One would reduce the mandated inclusionary rate of affordable units in market-rate develop...

Scissor stairs are typically associated with skinny highrise towers, but they're a good option to have for midrise buildings too, like this new 6-story apartment building in Brooklyn designed by @panyc.bsky.social.

Dan Bertolet@danbertolet.bsky.social

Guest contributor @markusja.bsky.social gives the rundown on another first for Washington state on legislation to increase housing options: HB 2228 sets the process in motion for updating the building code to allow scissor stairs. www.sightline.org/2026/05/13/w...

Guest contributor @markusja.bsky.social gives the rundown on another first for Washington state on legislation to increase housing options: HB 2228 sets the process in motion for updating the building code to allow scissor stairs. www.sightline.org/2026/05/13/w...

sightline.orgWashington Passes First Statewide Scissor Stair Reform | Sightline InstituteThe measure ushers in more light-filled, infill-suited apartment homes—and sets a model for other states.

Good explainer on land value taxes. @sightline.org is continuing work initiated in WA's 2026 session to develop legislation that exempts building value from property tax, which has all the benefits of a split rate land value tax, but doesn't run afoul of the state constitution's uniformity clause.

Daryl Fairweather ⛅@fairweatherphd.bsky.social

U.S. home prices have quadrupled since 1995, but it's not that homes got more expensive to build. It's that the LAND We tax buildings the same as land, so owners are rewarded for keeping lots empty and penalized for building homes. Watch my latest YouTube on Land Value Tax youtu.be/v8bvin28SbA

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The Urbanist has the details on Seattle's possible MHA moratorium. Quoted electeds agree with the widely held belief that MHA is fine as long as it's calibrated. Nope! If it adds *any* cost, it will end up pushing average rents higher than they otherwise would be. Works like a dimmer, not a switch!

theurbanist.orgBuilders Push for Temporary MHA Fee Break to Spur Housing StartsA group of builders is urging Seattle to reduce Mandatory Housing Affordability fees for three years with the aim of kickstarting a sputtering homebuilding industry. They say 125 stalled projects enco...

But if you want to know how I really feel read #1 and #3 at the link below. There is no magic calibrated requirement that won't do damage. Using IZ to capture the value of upzones is like one step forward and one step back. The way that IZ is so accepted as legit policy continues to blow my mind.

sightline.orgFive Flaws That Would Destine WA’s TOD Bills to Backfire | Sightline InstituteAllowing more apartment buildings in city neighborhoods where transportation options and jobs are abundant, is critical for Washington to address the housing shortage and control prices and rents; to ...
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When enacted in 2019, MHA was a compromise to build enough support to pass upzones. On its own, MHA adds a cost to homebuilding that must be covered by higher rents or nothing gets built. Costs have gone up for other reasons too, but piling on MHA just makes the housing crisis worse overall.

Rather than fund affordable housing with a tax on homebuilding that undermines its own intent, Seattle would do better with a broad tax like property taxes, which it already does with the Housing Levy and through abatements (MFTE). It's time for Seattle to accept that all told, MHA is bad policy.

MHA is not the only cost that has pushed multifamily permits off a cliff, but it's one the city can control. MHA adds ~5% to total project cost. The Seattle Housing Roundtable identified 29 stalled multifamily projects that, if MHA was waived, would likely pencil and yield ~5,000 new homes.

The formula for good urban streets is so simple and Vancouver proves that it’s still possible to build it even deep in the age of car culture, no need to do more studies or crack some ancient code, just do this: