Always satisfying to see yet another rigorous academic study confirming what we YIMBYs have been saying for a long time now: "permitting duration is positively associated with housing prices and negatively associated with production" evansoltas.com/papers/Durat...
Dan Bertolet
Dan Bertolet
@danbertolet.bsky.social
I think it's good when cities are legal, and I work at Sightline Institute to make that happen. My takes on here, though, are no less than 100% mine.
1.3K followers300 following468 posts
"When a city’s regulations stretch the time from blueprint to move-in, the homes end up more expensive. Or they end up never built, because the delay makes them money-losers. In cities already suffering from a shortage of homes, either way, delay sends prices even higher."
Back-of-the-envelope, the new IZ study estimates that the typical CA renter household paid an extra ~$110 per month because of the homebuilding IZ thwarted. Meanwhile, homeowners benefit from IZ because home prices rise more. IZ is one of the biggest urban planning mistakes of the modern era.
Note to Seattle policymakers who want to expand MHA: The most rigorous study ever done on IZ found that the typical program in CA reduces homebuilding by nearly one third. And all renters pay the price in higher rents caused by the worsened shortage. Unfunded IZ is a regressive policy.
Note to Seattle policymakers who want to expand MHA: The most rigorous study ever done on IZ found that the typical program in CA reduces homebuilding by nearly one third. And all renters pay the price in higher rents caused by the worsened shortage. Unfunded IZ is a regressive policy.
Until now, the academic research on IZ has been mostly inconclusive because of all the confounding variables in real life cities. This study utilizes a statewide change in IZ's legal status to isolate its effects, and quantifies each program's stringency. Case closed! Here's a good summary:
Good on CM Foster for stepping up on dialing back MHA! Not so good, though, about expanding MHA into NR zones. IZ is especially bad for small scale projects, which is why Oregon state law bans IZ for projects with 10 units or less. And the only real way to get the IZ dials right is to fund it.
I wrote this to make the case for funded IZ in WA's TOD bill, but it's true for IZ anywhere, in any economic conditions. There is no dial setting for unfunded IZ that makes it harmless. A lower setting reduces the damage but also reduces the benefit. It's a zero sum game!
Wildfires like the one that recently destroyed ~800 homes in Spokane create an urgent need for rapidly deployable, low-cost housing. Mobile dwellings could be housing people who've lost their homes right now - if they were legal. This is one reason to pass a state MDU bill but not the only one...
Portland's legalization of mobile dwellings is a total success story. In the neighborhood surveyed, MDUs have overtaken ADUs. MDUs are the lowest-cost, quickest to deploy type of home there is. They should be legal on residential lots in all cities. www.sightline.org/2026/08/19/s...
Portland's legalization of mobile dwellings is a total success story. In the neighborhood surveyed, MDUs have overtaken ADUs. MDUs are the lowest-cost, quickest to deploy type of home there is. They should be legal on residential lots in all cities. www.sightline.org/2026/08/19/s...
Bellingham may be the first WA city to legalize mobile dwellings in residential neighborhoods. MDUs are the least expensive, fasted to deploy housing type there is. MDUs should be legal in all cities, which is why @sightline.org is working on statewide legislation in both WA and OR.
"Mobile dwelling units are an important, low-cost housing option and a rare opportunity to make substantial progress toward our affordability goals." - Councilmember Jace Cotton BELLINGHAM, lets go! 😍 Read more at: www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/a...
New study finds that unfunded inclusionary zoning: - reduces resid. construction by nearly a third - relocates MF developments to lower rent areas - costs renters $800,000 in excess rents per IZ unit created Who could have guessed that taxing housing to fund affordable housing is a bad idea?
And here's a good thread on why inclusionary zoning harms the very people it's intended to help when it impedes the construction of new homes. bsky.app/profile/maxd...
The idea that the wealthy, the middle class, and the poor are all in completely separate housing markets with no overlap ignores how things work in the real world. In the absence of new high end housing, wealthy people outbid the middle class for the best available existing housing and renovate it.
Excellent discussion of how a land value tax can help cities get more housing built and boost economic development in their downtowns. WA state could authorize the equivalent of an LVT with the Vibrant Cities Act, which will be a top legislative priority for @sightline.org in the 2027 session.
Read/listen all about how a "land value tax" can discourage land speculation & encourage dense building on the highest value land, ie, land near urban cores. www.volts.wtf/p/want-less-...
Vancouver BC's Villages Plan is the first proposal in many decades in any North American city that would substantially push apartment zones into the leafy neigbhorhoods away from noisy, polluted arterials. Public input has been mostly negative, big surprise. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...
"Corridor zoning" amounts to jamming low-income residents into big, bland apartment buildings alongside stroads, where they can serve as a buffer, absorbing all the noise & air pollution cars produce, protecting the precious single-family homes that dominate everywhere around them. It's abominable.
Vancouver's proposed Village Plan would allow small apartment buildings on three to four blocks surrounding 17 designated centers. In other words, a big step for apartments not on dangerous, polluted arterial streets. Public hearing is tomorrow 7/14 at 6pm. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...
It's tunnel vision to focus on MHA generating funds for affordable housing. It can! But it comes at the cost of raising rents for everyone else. Because no housing gets built until the worsening shortage pushes up rents high enough to offset the MHA fee. And that hits lower-income renters hardest.
One reason this backsliding never ends is because the deal itself reinforced the idea that taxing housing to pay for housing is fine as long as it’s calibrated. No. Unfunded inclusionary zoning is bad policy that harms renters in all economic conditions and it should be abolished everywhere.
BREAKING: A deal that would have given housing developers a partial holiday on mandatory affordable housing fees has fallen through. The agreement, brokered between private-market developers, affordable housing developers, and the mayor's office, was supposed to culminate in legislation on Monday.
Spokane Councilmember Klitzke is leading the charge for state legislation that would authorize the equivalent of a land value tax: “A property tax that exempts buildings and shifts the burden onto land would give us a new and powerful tool to fill in our gaps while keeping Spokane affordable.”
Excited to be working on a new approach to a land value tax that would be legal in WA state. Tax buildings less and land more and you'll get more new buildings and less vacant land. It's a non-zoning solution for mitigating the housing shortage, and it's value capture done right.
Good news for cash-strapped cities hesitant to upzone: "Building homes near existing jobs, stores, and transit saves public dollars, in both up-front infrastucture and ongoing maintenance, and produces more property taxes per acre than local gov'ts can expect from development at the edge of town."
For the upzoning skeptics: Auckland. The effect was strong because the upzone was big. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
And as my colleague @andersem.bsky.social wrote: "Across Auckland, median home prices have receded 20 percent from their COVID peak. Abundance: it does what it says on the tin." medium.com/@andersem/ab...
Virginia and Kentucky just passed state bills to enable land value taxes. Renewed interest in LVT has been popping up all of the country. @sightline.org is working with legislators and advocates to develop a bill for 2027 in Washington. progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/two-states...
Yet another vacancy chain paper, but with a new contribution: evidence that some residents downsize into the new condos. That is, they open up *larger* homes. Building small apartments is a solution for increasing the availablity of family-sized homes. morehousing.substack.com/p/honolulu
SF should just go all the way and eliminate IZ altogether. Even at 5% it will kill marginal homebuilding projects. It will do less damage than if it wasn't lowered, but there is no magic threshold below which undfunded IZ is harmless. It's like watching someone go through the stages of grief.
San Francisco is moving in the right direction on inclusionary zoning. It will reduce its IZ requirement to 5 percent of units, and to compensate, will double its housing trust fund, which is mostly funded from property taxes. Property tax is a much better way to fund rent-restricted housing!
Pew has a new 3-minute video spotlighting the story of a real person who was able to move into an affordable home because of the vacancy chain created by the construction of an expensive new, market-rate apartment building. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQYM...
Another way to think about this is that if Seattle hadn't built so many new rental apartments, renters would now have housing costs much closer to Seattle's high ownership costs. www.seattletimes.com/business/rea...
San Francisco is moving in the right direction on inclusionary zoning. It will reduce its IZ requirement to 5 percent of units, and to compensate, will double its housing trust fund, which is mostly funded from property taxes. Property tax is a much better way to fund rent-restricted housing!
San Francisco assessed its IZ and found that "none of the financial models could support any inclusionary housing." That's because under current economic conditions pretty much nothing pencils even if 100% market rate. IZ just makes it worse, as it always does. media.api.sf.gov/documents/Tr...
Ahoy housing wonks in Alaska and BC! Sightline is hiring part-time contributors to help advance housing abundance in these two corners of Cascadia. Please spread the word! www.sightline.org/about/careers/
Good on the NYT for calling out how inclusionary zoning backfires and worsens affordability. Great to see wider recognition of this reality. But it's not only when IZ mandates "too many" BMR units. If IZ puts *any* extra cost burden on homebuilding it will backfire. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Great to see @futurewise.bsky.social taking on the task of making sure we get proper implementation of all the building code reform bills that WA has passed since 2023. futurewise.org/get-involved...
Scissor stairs are typically associated with skinny highrise towers, but they're a good option to have for midrise buildings too, like this new 6-story apartment building in Brooklyn designed by @panyc.bsky.social.
Guest contributor @markusja.bsky.social gives the rundown on another first for Washington state on legislation to increase housing options: HB 2228 sets the process in motion for updating the building code to allow scissor stairs. www.sightline.org/2026/05/13/w...
Guest contributor @markusja.bsky.social gives the rundown on another first for Washington state on legislation to increase housing options: HB 2228 sets the process in motion for updating the building code to allow scissor stairs. www.sightline.org/2026/05/13/w...
Dan Bertolet reposted
Happy Birthday to the Parking Reform & Modernization Act! 🎂 @jessdbateman.bsky.social www.sightline.org/2026/05/07/w...
The perfect, low-cost, infill solution for retrofitting detached house neighborhoods anywhere and everywhere: Six 900 sf, 2-bedroom flats. Selling for $300k (in Portland). On a standard 5,000 sf house lot. Bottom two units accessible. No on-site parking. www.redfin.com/OR/Portland/...
Good explainer on land value taxes. @sightline.org is continuing work initiated in WA's 2026 session to develop legislation that exempts building value from property tax, which has all the benefits of a split rate land value tax, but doesn't run afoul of the state constitution's uniformity clause.
U.S. home prices have quadrupled since 1995, but it's not that homes got more expensive to build. It's that the LAND We tax buildings the same as land, so owners are rewarded for keeping lots empty and penalized for building homes. Watch my latest YouTube on Land Value Tax youtu.be/v8bvin28SbA
Great news that Seattle may roll back its MHA program that impedes homebuilding by either requiring below-market units or charging a fee-in-lieu. @sightline.org encourages Mayor Wilson (@mayorofseattle.bsky.social) and Councilmember Foster to enact the most aggressive moratorium possible.
The Urbanist has the details on Seattle's possible MHA moratorium. Quoted electeds agree with the widely held belief that MHA is fine as long as it's calibrated. Nope! If it adds *any* cost, it will end up pushing average rents higher than they otherwise would be. Works like a dimmer, not a switch!
But if you want to know how I really feel read #1 and #3 at the link below. There is no magic calibrated requirement that won't do damage. Using IZ to capture the value of upzones is like one step forward and one step back. The way that IZ is so accepted as legit policy continues to blow my mind.
Great news that Seattle may roll back its MHA program that impedes homebuilding by either requiring below-market units or charging a fee-in-lieu. @sightline.org encourages Mayor Wilson (@mayorofseattle.bsky.social) and Councilmember Foster to enact the most aggressive moratorium possible.
Great news that Seattle may roll back its MHA program that impedes homebuilding by either requiring below-market units or charging a fee-in-lieu. @sightline.org encourages Mayor Wilson (@mayorofseattle.bsky.social) and Councilmember Foster to enact the most aggressive moratorium possible.