Sam Burch

Week 7 #NFL Review! - Half the games, the winner dominated - 49ers should still be undefeated - Packers had better efficiency, but deserved to lose because of their success rate

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#NFL Strength of Schedule Adjustments! - Bucs defense up to 2nd in adjusted efficiency - Bills offense jumps to first, with 49ers falling slightly - Texans defense hasn't been good, but have faced the toughest schedule

#NFL QB Play (thru week 7)! - Jackson MVP, but on a small sample - Young drops to the gunslinger tier, after the mistakes this past week - McKee trying to not lose games

Week 7 #NFL Review! - Half the games, the winner dominated - 49ers should still be undefeated - Packers had better efficiency, but deserved to lose because of their success rate

Week 8 #NFL Power Rankings! - 49ers still first despite a loss - Texans are mid - Chargers coming off a bye, but Rams r solid enough to dominate them - NFC South lol... - Not as bad as the NFC East tho

Week 6 #NFL Review! - Chargers didn't stand a chance - Giants had a lot of success in the 4th Quarter - Seahawks & Jags should've won

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Week 7 #NFL Leans! - Giants aren't terrible, so +10 is a value - Chiefs ML makes sense, as they are certainly the better team - Maybe Daniels is back, but Panthers are a value regardless

#NFL QB Play (thru week 6)! - Huntley's been fine while Jackson's been hurt - MPJ & Maye are gunslingers - Dak playing very conservatively

Week 6 #NFL Review! - Chargers didn't stand a chance - Giants had a lot of success in the 4th Quarter - Seahawks & Jags should've won

Week 7 #NFL Power Rankings! - On track for another 49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl - Eagles injuries pushed them from bad to awful - Despite a losing record, Rams are above average on offense & defense - NFC has the 2 best and 2 worst divisions in football - Broncos are mid

SOS #NFL Adjustments (thru week 6)! - Dolphins have faced a gauntlet of a schedule - Chargers cementing themselves as the worst offense - Seahawks are the best defense, not named the Vikings

Week 5 #NFL Review! - 49ers & Jets games were close, but they each deserved to win - Giants got lucky with the tie, but unlucky bc they were probably the better team - SNF was fun - Maye is back

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Week 6 #NFL Leans! - Panthers are hurt on defense, but should be able to stop a struggling Eagles offense - Teasing Broncos out to +8.5 might be the smarter move, with the likely low scoring game - If Williams is back and MPJ is out, Falcons not a value

#NFL QB Play! - Darnold is a fun watch, at the very least - MPJ top-5 in efficiency and net positive rate - Jackson vs. Purdy for MVP

Week 5 #NFL Review! - 49ers & Jets games were close, but they each deserved to win - Giants got lucky with the tie, but unlucky bc they were probably the better team - SNF was fun - Maye is back

Week 6 #NFL Power Rankings! - 49ers still #1 despite all the injuries - Eagles & Chargers in trash territory - Packers are mid

SOS Adjustments! - Vikings D are an unmovable object - Cowboys D can lose to an undrafted rookie - Dolphins are bad, although they've faced a gauntlet of a schedule

#NFL QB Play (thru week 4)! - Is it 2023 again, with Purdy vs. Jackson for MVP? - Commanders can't wait to get Daniels back - Other Daniels may not be a downgrade for the Bucs, with how Baker was playing - Brissett playing boring football - Could Lock steal the job from Darnold?

Week 5 #NFL Leans! - A winless team shouldn't be favored by a touchdown, but the Titans are a tough bet - Bucs could have some success against a bad Cowboys defense - Raiders can't be slept on right now

#NFL SOS Adjustments (thru week 4)! - 49ers offense is on another level - Falcons success rate has been solid, while their efficiency is brought down by their games without MPJ - Rams have a good defense even without Garrett - Chargers offense has struggled - Cowboys defense still is bad

Week 5 #NFL Power Rankings! - Lamar MVP? - Chiefs are back - A couple cats sneak into the top-5 - Cardinals and Dolphins are who we thought they were - XGBoost model based on non schedule adjusted efficiency and last year's rankings

Week 4 #NFL Review! - Falcons dominated - Cardinals should've won - Eagles... yikes - Bears O 1st in SR, despite Williams being hurt - Texans 0-4, although had another good performance

Week 2 #NFL Review! - Falcons & Chiefs dominated - Seahawks should've won - Bucs & Vikings was a slug fest

*week 3

Week 3 #NFL Power Rankings! - 49ers have had the best start, but idk if they will be able to sustain with the injuries - Dolphins are really bad on offense and defense, and just lost their best player for the year - Panthers are mid and on top of the NFC South... Sounds about right

*Week 4

#NFL SOS through week 2! - Dolphins have faced arguably the hardest schedule thus far - Chargers... Yikes - Packers can't wait to get Parsons back

Through week 3*

#NFL Week 3 Leans! - Bucs aren't 0-3 bad - Because of the high total (50.5) Panthers ML might make more sense than +3.5 - Commanders and Colts have been too similar so far, so Commanders have some value at +3.5

Week 4*

Quite low trade capital for a former 1st round QB. Worth the risk for the #Giants, but McCarthy will need to improve from last year to be a competent starter #NFL

NFL Daily News@insidenflnews.bsky.social

‼️ Trade summary, per Tom Pelissero: Giants get - JJ McCarthy Vikings get - 2027 5th-round pick

#NFL Leans for Week 3! - Take the Dolphins at your own risk - Bears without Williams have no value - Jets have been fine thus far

Strength of Schedule Adjustments (thru wk2)! - Dolphins faced a tough schedule, because Raiders have had a good start too - Bills are who we thought the Bears were last week - Of course 3rd and 4th string QBs will make the offense struggle #Falcons #NFL

Week 3 #NFL Power Rankings! - 3 NFC West Teams on top - MPJ or Tua could save the Falcons from the bottom tier, as their defense hasn't been bad - Raiders with the best defense, but have only faced bottom 5 offenses - Cowboys are mid - Eagles & Vikings offenses relying on explosives

Week 2 #NFL Review! - Ravens got unlucky - Eagles should arguably be 0-2 - Giants didn't stand a chance, although they suffered many injuries

Sam Burch reposted

Week 2 #NFL Power Rankings! - Model considers week 1, but is weighted mostly on last season & offseason moves - While better accuracy on average, bias towards week 1 performance for some teams (Ex: Packers & Chargers) - Melbourne witnessed the top-2 teams - Browns... 🤢 - NFC South all below avg

Some leans thoughts: - Broncos likely too low, but Jags have value, despite facing a bad team last week - Titans were not encouraging last week, but 7 points is too much against a solid team this early - Jets, Cardinals, & Raiders all not a value, with the bias towards week 1

Week 1 #NFL Review! - Jags, 49ers, & Giants dominated - Commanders, Texans, Falcons, & Bucs were a little unlucky - Cowboys (specifically) had success on offense, but just couldn't stop the Giants - Broncos O wasn't much better with Nix back in - Chargers were not good at all on Sunday

12 Sept

Not gonna count these towards my results, but reran my #NFL rankings model... - Chiefs really fell off the second half of last year, so the Broncos are not much of a value - If you believe in DJ, take the Colts - Chargers got better in the offseason, but 10.5 is too much for any team this early

samburch.substack.com5 Bold Predictions for the 2026 NFL SeasonBuilding off last year's methodology, I predict what unlikely scenarios are undervalued this season.

24 Aug

For fun, I gave some bold predictions for the 2026 #NFL season. They are all data (and vibe) driven, where I lean into generally undervalued outcomes. samburch.substack.com/p/5-bold-pre...

8 Aug

Updated #NFL Rankings, with improved offseason changes methodology! - Rams still in a tier of their own, but Garrett trade doesn't hurt - Chiefs probably too low, with Mahomes being injured late last year - NFC South is mid at best

Sam Burch@burchsam.bsky.social

Updated #NFL Rankings & Week 1 Leans! - Building in 2nd-half improvements for prior season, boosts the hawks and hurts the pats - 11.5 points is a lot in wk1, but it won't be easy to bet on the Cardinals in 2026 - Probably too high on Colt's offense, especially with the uncertainty at QB

8 Aug

Updated 2026 #NFL Offseason Moves! - Cleaned up the data, adjusting for trades, retirement, and general fixes - Rams up to 3rd, with the addition of McDuffie & Garrett - Packers last due to losing several key starters & Willis

1 June

Rams keep adding talent, while Browns understand where they're at right now

Ian Rapoport@rapsheet.bsky.social

🚨 🚨 🚨 Bombshell: The Browns are finalizing a trade of Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to the Rams in a shocker, sources tell me, @tompelissero.bsky.social & Adam Schefter. Cleveland would send Garrett to LA in exchange for star edge Jared Verse, a first-rounder, and more.

panthers.comInside the draft roomHow the Panthers tapped into their analytics department, and married it to old school scouting to reach a result they couldn't have imagined in all their prep work.

23 May

Sam Burch reposted

Darin Gantt

@daringantt.bsky.social

6 May

Before Panthers rookies roll in tomorrow for this weekend's minicamp, let's go inside the draft room to see how they got here. An in-depth look at how Eric Eager and the analytics department are a crucial component to the draft process. www.panthers.com/news/inside-...

2 May

Post FA 2026 #NFL Power Rankings! - Based primarily on 2025 play still - Cardinals tanking for a new QB next year - Both Texas teams are mid

Sam Burch@burchsam.bsky.social

2026 #NFL Power Rankings! - Great offense (like the Rams & Bills) are stable - Teams with QB and/or coaching changes have higher variances (aka higher ceiling & lower floor) - Colts could rebound if Danny dimes does as well

2 May

2026 #NFL Draft Analysis! - Dolphins added the most talent in the draft, attacking both premium & non-premium positions - Raiders and Browns got players that'll help them make a leap, unlike the Jets & Cardinals

12 Apr

#NFLDraft 2026 QB Projections! - Mendoza is a solid 1st overall option, however his sack avoidance is concerning - Simpson's inexperience is even more concerning - Several day 3 options with some real upside

21 Mar

#NFL Free Agency Moves 2026! - Titans and Raiders are desperate for upgrades, after bottom-5 finishes in 2025 - Packers had to sit this year out, with the Parsons trade last year - Great values underrated here; e.g. the Murray signing negates the Vikings losses

9 Mar

This'll help a #Panthers pass-rush that's been bottom-2 in PFF grading the past 2 years

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dlvr.itBreer: Jones wanted 'in ballpark' of $50MM/yearSports Illustrated's Albert Breer reports Daniel Jones' camp wanted a deal "in the ballpark" of $50 million per season.

9 Mar

This is the problem with paying an average ish QB. 10 QBs have an APY of $50M+ per @overthecap.bsky.social. And you have to have great results in order to make that type of contract worth it. Average QBs need great surroundings, which isn't feasible at that price #NFL

Rotoworld Football@rotoworld-fb.bsky.social

Breer: Jones wanted 'in ballpark' of $50MM/year