Benjamin Smart

Arevthe ANC mayoral candidates underpriced outside of Joburg? @polymarket.com #SouthAfrica #Elections #PredictionMarketProf predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/prediction...

Here's a link to my recent interview on SABC News on the death of a lab technician at a Siberian anti-plague research institute. #PneumonicPlague #MedSky #Outbreak youtu.be/IPTs_Mom1js?...

At this point, if it turned out that #DonaldTrump arranged 9/11 so he could own the tallest building in New York, I wouldn't be surprised.

predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/theres-a-1...

As #democrats go into the #midterms desperate to stop the carnage of Trump's kakistocracy, they must remember that hyper-progressive social policies are deeply unpopular. Pennsylvania will buy universal healthcare, but not trans girls in pro sports. Maybe deny republicans their fuel for 6 weeks.

What can we expect as a desperate Trump's flails into the midterms? Could a ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia be on the cards? The case for optimism is real. #predictionmarketprof #Trump #Politics #Ukraine @polymarket.extwitter.link @polymarket.com predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...

Coming to the conclusion that the existential threats #AI are meant to pose are likely largely marketing strategies. If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development. Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.

My favourite part of the #Trump convention speech was when he tried to bribe hundreds of millions of Americans to vote Republican. Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer. There are no lines that won't be crossed. None. #politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention

The US fired their most seasoned diplomats and generals. Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence. They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace. Why isn't it working? What more could be done? #kakistocracy

The latest in my series on prediction market trading. This miniseries on sports might be called: how not to lose TOO much money gambling. But actually, so far these strategies have been very effective for me. Here's strategy 2. @Polymarket #Sports predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...

Last look at the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Reunion Island. A magnificent week tasting the best Creole and French food, building research relationships, marking, and discovering volcanos and coral reefs.

It seems to me that the current Supreme Court is so Trumpian that if anything is to be achieved post 2028, the democrats MUST load the court. It probably follows that the next Republican government will do the same, and so on. I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.

Next forecast: Marine LePenn (Trump with a baguette and a few more brain cells) is excellent value at 33c. She's almost certain to make the run-off and reprice to 47%-80% depending on whom she faces. French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced. predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...

How to make sports gambling a little less gamblie on prediction markets (albeit, still pretty gamblie). Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only. @polymarket.extwitter.link #predictionmarkets substack.com/@predictionm...

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says RFK Jr. offered federal help after two unvaccinated people died from measles, the first U.S. deaths this year. Shapiro declined, saying PA could handle it, and confronted Kennedy, telling him: “There’s real life consequences to spreading misinformation.”

I recorded a series of short lectures and stuck them on YouTube: #philosophy of #science through the lens of medicine. Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides. Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself. Check it out, here: youtube.com/@profsmartle...

open.substack.com/pub/predicti...

An alcoholic Fox News presenter runs the world's most powerful military. #Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east. The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice. Madness. Total madness. #Kakistocracy

I currently feel like completing the marking and giving the feedback I owe, whilst also completing all the other teaching/research/admin my job entails, whilst also fulfilling my duties as a husband and father, is completely impossible in a 24 hours day when I need 6 hours sleep. That feeling sucks.

This MIGHT be the best bit of news I've heard in a VERY long time. Does anyone have links to informed people writing on the specifics? #Moderna #Cancer #Health #Medicine

The politics of inequality. Why AOC is favourite for the democratic nomination, and where the prediction market trading opportunisties lie. #2028Election @TheDemocrats @AOC @CAgovernor @PolymarketIntel open.substack.com/pub/predicti...

Shocking treatment of Jason Arday. Did he deserve to lose his job? Well, possibly. Did he deserve to lose his life? Obviously not - but after the relentless hounding by the media, and all these people who suddenly saw fit to critique his work, nobody can be surprised. Take responsibility. Be better

Need to hedge your investment portfolio against the AI bubble bursting? Think put options are too expensive? Consider using prediction markets. open.substack.com/pub/predicti... #notfinancialadvice #finance #trading @polymarket.extwitter.link

open.substack.com/pub/predicti... Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing. #USpolitics #Trump #Finance

substack.com/@predictionm... Trading Trump's Malignant Narcissism #substack #Trump #predictionmarkets #polymarket #kalshi

open.substack.com/pub/predicti... #philosophyofpublichealth #AIethics

“Fauci has devoted more than 50 years to public service, leading NIAID and the US through the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the 2001 anthrax attacks, SARS, pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, & other infectious disease threats.” Thanks @gavinyamey.bsky.social for honouring this hero. www.bmj.com/content/394/...

I delivered my inaugural lecture last week. I argue that Humanities must play a central role in the development of AI. We must tailor new technologies to further human flourishing. Check it out (please): www.youtube.com/live/Qv1iyPp... #publichealth #AI #AIethics #philosophyofmedicind

My old friend Ben Smart gave his inaugural lecture on 'health as a property of complex systems'. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv1i... It's based on his recent book on the philosophy of public health. Well worth checking out! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Should anyone be remotely interested, I am delivering my inaugural lecture tomorrow Wednesday 5th at 4pm GMT (5pm UK, 6pm South Africa). You can watch it live, here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv1i...

Wow. It didn't take long for the #Trump effect to infiltrate the #reviewer2 space. I just had a paper rejected for daring to (implicitly) assume in a #SOTL paper that white people aren't intrinsically smarter than black people. 😡

Working at the University of the Free State this week. Working on a couple of things, including a casual theory for change for the effect on vaccine #misinformation prevalence by using DMs to redirect early-stage "misfluencers" into echochambers, so they waste their time there. Very fun.

mg.co.za/thought-lead... #AI #grok4 #chatGPT #unemployment #philosophy

Genuine question: in cases where people can lose weight simply by eating healthier diets, and assuming there are no restrictions on them doing that (they just prefer not to eat healthily), are weight loss drugs an ethical use of public funds, assuming they do improve health.

Chilling. Grok spreads White genocide misinformation about South Africa. Whilst many white farmers have been murdered, the truth is, your risk of death by violent crime as a poor black person in places like the Cape Flats is much higher: archive.ph/2025.05.17-1...

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will direct federal health agencies to explore potential new treatments for measles as the U.S. faces its largest outbreak in 25 years. Experts fear the decision could have grave consequences, as studies show the existing vaccine is 97% effective in preventing infection.

In the UK and Europe, we call it "Austerity". In America they call it #DOGE, and celebrate it prancing around with a chainsaw as the world's richest man takes away 10s of thousands of middle class jobs, and destroys hundreds of health social development projects. Evil genius.

Goodness me. Is Trump planning a war in 2027/28 already? Isn't that the only circumstance under which a 3rd term is permissible?

#Trump is now officially selling a “Trump 2028” hat, in the first sign of Trump wanting to run for a 3rd term. www.trumpstore.com/product/trum...

Why are people surprised that universities are left wing spaces? When your job is not the accumulation of wealth, but to think about health, justice, humanity, and science - you care more about humanity and the just distribution of wealth than the billionaires. Being left wing is NOT an insult.

#Tesla cars are ugly (some more than others), overpriced, and the majority shareholder has tried to buy (quite successfully) control of the free world, and decimate it. There are plenty of other electric cars. Buy those. We can't bankrupt #Musk, but collectively we can hurt him a little.

My friend just paid his taxes in the US in the most sobering, but equally hilarious way. #Trump #IsraelPalestine #Genocide

I will not attend a single academic conference, workshop, or accept any invitation to any institution (except at Harvard or places that take a similar stance) in the USA whilst Donald #Trump is president. We will not holiday there, we will boycott American products and foods.

Many congratulations to #HarvardUniversity for effectively paying USD2.2bn to retain credibility as a centre of academic and social excellence. It shouldn't have been necessary, but let's hope other higher education institutions can follow their example.

Can somebody please get #RFK to watch a YouTube Video on the Dunning Kruger effect?

So... a South African/British acquaintance of mine, with permanent residency in the US, was detained, flown to Texas, and has been shackled in a warehouse for 3 weeks. He's no idea why. He was expecting his citizenship within 3 months. #Trump is a Nazi. The stories of those around him are horrific.

If you have an exposure that improves the wellbeing of millions of people, but is highly socially destructive and devastating to the health of a relative minority, should governments strive to eliminate that exposure? Does it depend on the ratios and the degree of wellbeing improvement?

#RFK is about to "start" a bunch of autism research (that's actually been going on for decades). Only, he's going to fudge the data, p-hack, and so on, until he reaches his predetermined and false conclusion that vaccines cause #autism. Which they definitely don't. It's utter madness.

This is Tymofii. Russia killed him with a cluster-loaded Iskander missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. He was only 3 years old. #Ukraine