Barry Burden

Tune in at 7pm tonight. Put the Brewers on a second screen. UW Now Live: Making Sense of the Midterm Elections www.uwalumni.com/events/uw-no...

Hi everyone. We need to raise $75,000 to keep DRA available & free for all; & with accurate up-to-date election data from our partner @redistdatahub.bsky.social. For details please check out davesredistricting.org or our campaign at donate.mazloweb.com/donate/RmLGnENDAfuGwonbQxrZQy. Thank you!

So thoughtful to schedule this in the gap between the NLCS and the World Series

Five weeks from today — register now to join @ElectionsCenter in person to make sense of the 2026 midterms and American electoral politics more broadly elections.wisc.edu/page-events/...

This is not what happened in 2022. The polls were accurate. Speculators ginned up a narrative about a red wave that didn’t materialize www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

The fifth annual EPOVB conference will take place @uwmadison.bsky.social on May 13-14, 2027! Submit your paper & poster proposals by the Dec 1 deadline. Supported by @epovb.bsky.social & @electionscenter.bsky.social The proposal form & conference information here: elections.wisc.edu/epovb27/

It feels good to reject an academic paper for the old fashioned reason of low quality rather than for inappropriate use of AI

Embarrassing and sad. I have met with these observers multiple times over the years. The US course expect other countries to allow our observers. www.ms.now/news/trump-m...

I beg our high quality media outlets to stop shilling for Amazon

Trump this week: Again promised every adult $5,000 to vote for his party Offered another private dinner with people who buy the most of his crypto coin Used more government money to run campaign ads for himself

Not much polling bias in recent midterm elections (screen shot from the other place)

Funny for him to say House is a sure thing for Dems when Cook’s ratings have the party barely winning a majority if they split the toss-ups. The trick is that the toss-ups will not divide equally but we can’t say exactly which will go D versus R. thehill.com/homenews/cam...

That’s one way to celebrate America 250

My 2026 vote goes to the party that can tame blinding car headlights

A violation of free speech, the First Amendment, and good government

A steady flow of pro-Tiffany ads have been coming my way for weeks by mail, TV, & digital (much of it from super PAC & 501c allies). Crowley ad during last night’s Emmys was one of the first things I’ve seen from his camp.

What risks could threaten the integrity of the 2026 midterms, and how can we prepare? Join election experts on 10/9/2026 for a timely discussion of the challenges ahead and how election officials, lawyers, journalists, and voters can respond. Register: go.wisc.edu/t38psa

Since becoming president again, Trump has promised: -$5000 stimulus checks via "DOGE dividend" -$2000 stimulus checks via "tariff dividend" -$1000+ checks via "savings" from expiring ACA subsidies -$5000 "dividend" if Rs win midterms No checks have been issued www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-magi...

It helps one party in particular right now, but scholars like me tend to think this is right call to center parties in campaign finance apnews.com/article/supr...

That red line is something

Flight is delayed. Gate agents have set up a game of cornhole with about 20 players to determine who gets upgrades.

Uplifting to get a royalty statement with a negative balance

An effective midterm convention could spotlight patriotic Americans praising the GOP’s accomplishments & raising fears about socialism. One that puts an unpopular president front and center hurts more than it helps. www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...

This is the week of reconnecting with former students who are doing cool and valuable things

Speaking to Wisconsin clerks, Gov Evers asks for passage of Monday absentee ballot processing bill before he leaves office

Nice analysis of one firm’s polling in the Wisconsin primary: miss on Crowley mostly due to late-deciding voters & a sample that was too young

Political scientists: @uwpolisci.bsky.social is hiring an assistant professor in the field of Chinese politics. Deadline Sept 15. jobs.wisc.edu/jobs/assista...

I’m being told Kaul identifies as AAPI, making the lineups even more different

Fixing a point about the statewide party slates I miffed last night: Dem lineup: 1 white man (Kaul alongside Crowley, Godlewski, Zamarripa, Xiong) GOP lineup: 5 white men (Tiffany, Varnam, Toney, Schroeder, Leiber) Dems won all five last time Trump was in office (2018)

“Prediction” markets

How to pronounce those Wisconsin county names misspronouncer.com/counties/

Coming up on MSNOW shortly

Tiffany’s congressional voting record is pretty far to the right & his running mate is a real social conservative madison.com/news/state-r...

Correction: Alfonso would be the youngest & first born in the 2000s but preceded by another Gen Z member

26-year old Alfonso is likely replacement for Tom Tiffany and the first Gen Z member of Congress

Anecdote: I stopped by a polling place on the UW-Madison campus today and literally saw zero voters there. Harder for Hong to organize the student vote in the summer.

Madison: Hong dominating near east side (her district) & downtown, UW student districts almost empty, Crowley holding his on on the west side

A reminder from the 2016 pres primary: Milwaukee was the only county where Clinton beat Sanders.

Looking like Hong hit her high in early summer, plateaued, & won’t blow past her poll standings. The question is whether Crowley has caught her.

First full county (Jefferson) is in and it’s a dead-heat between Crowley & Hong. State Navigate poll had Hong ahead everywhere.

Tiffany drops a new ad today that adopts Hong-style punchy promises. Funny timing given that his victory speech should get free media coverage. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKOw...

Fairly steady turnout at my polling place despite the rain Rain is causing some smearing & damp ballots that jam the scanner Two voters had borderline apparel (“Godzilla for president” & “unapologetically pro-democracy”)

Order of the 7 Dem candidates on the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary ballot

Also much smaller Black and Arab populations in Wisconsin

Some diffs between MI & WI primaries: * WI only recently looked like a two-way race, so not a simple either-or * No AIPAC involvement in WI * No involvement of national figs such as Bernie & AOC * Hong openly identifies as dem socialist but AES didn’t thehill.com/homenews/cam...

🚨Save the date🚨 Join the Elections Research Center on Friday, Nov. 20, for the 2026 Election Symposium aat the Discovery Building. Hear leading experts unpack the midterm results, key races, issues, vote patterns and Wisconsin’s battleground role. 🔗http://go.wisc.edu/3EOJM3

Haven’t seen a Wisconsin candidate so focused on one issue since Walker fought “the train” in 2010 Never seen a candidate produce the crowds that Hong does before a primary

I am seeing amazingly divergent takes on Hong’s interviews on CNN and Fox

A supposed benefit of a Barnes candidacy was he was was already vetted in his 2 statewide runs. Not clear why the news is dropping now. www.jsonline.com/story/news/p...