Ballot Box Scotland

Note: I am on holiday from now until the 19th of October! I will not be able to report on the results of the three by-elections due whilst I'm away, or on any polling that comes out in that time. If things could otherwise be as quiet and boring a possible, I'd take that as a personal favour.

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Midstocket and RosemountThe SNP hold on despite a crashing vote, as the Conservatives dig in as Aberdeen's strongest anti-SNP option. However, with an eye on 2027, this by-election suggests the same result as every election in the ward thus far.

By-Election Result analysis: Midstocket and Rosemount The SNP hold on despite a crashing vote, as the Conservatives dig in as Aberdeen's strongest anti-SNP option. However, with an eye on 2027, this by-election suggests the same result as every election in the ward thus far.

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Forth and Endrick 2026The Conservatives cling on in a close fight with the SNP, with transfers indicating Labour would have done the same against the Greens in a three-seat contest.

By-Election Result analysis: Forth and Endrick 2026 The Conservatives cling on in a close fight with the SNP, with transfers indicating Labour would have done the same against the Greens in a three-seat contest.

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Wick and East Caithness 2026The Highland Lib Dems are well and truly back, surging to a win on first preferences alone in an area they've dug into in both parliaments.

By-Election Result analysis: Wick and East Caithness 2026 The Highland Lib Dems are well and truly back, surging to a win on first preferences alone in an area they've dug into in both parliaments.

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Mid Argyll (Argyll and Bute) 29th of October 2026The death of a very popular local Independent triggers a contest that may be most favourable to the SNP, but keep an eye on the Lib Dems who doubled their support here in May's Holyrood vote.

By-Election Preview: Mid Argyll (Argyll and Bute) 29th of October 2026 The death of a very popular local Independent triggers a contest that may be most favourable to the SNP, but keep an eye on the Lib Dems who doubled their support here in May's Holyrood vote.

Mid Argyll has four of the six Holyrood parties (it's missing the Greens and Labour, which is not uncommon in this part of the country), plus an Independent, the Independence for Scotland microparty, and the far-right Restore Britain's first outing in Scotland

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

By-election set for the 29th of October. I'm back for that one! Philand was easily the most popular candidate (beats SNP by 15% in a head-to-head), so this one's a tough call, not least as lots of his votes would have transferred to Donnie MacMillan, who lost in 2022 and also died earlier this year.

open.spotify.comSNP council reformsThe Stooshie: the politics podcast from DC Thomson · Episode

Catch me on this week's episode of the Stooshie, where it's fair to say I'm not exactly excited about the Scottish Government's vague outline for local government reform

Amanda Bland (MSP for Central Scotland and Lothians West) has become the first MSP to quit Reform, for reasons as yet unknown. Telt ye's the numbers would be down before Christmas! (I am back from holiday now but catchup on by-elections in that period will come after I'm rested up)

Still on holiday and can't report on by-election results, but how about a cute wee lighthouse in the bit of New Zealand the French attempted to claim?

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter’s way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.

Another by-election this week, in Aberdeen's Midstocket and Rosemount ward. Labour ran the SNP close in 2022, and could again, but that may depend on the level of transfer bleed arising from Reform's presence. NOTE: This is an auto-post, I am on holiday very much not in Scotland still!

Taria he wā poto, ehara tēnā i te Pāremata o Kotirana!

Can't report by-election results from holiday but can I interest you in Mount Doom?

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May’s results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens?

Two by-elections today: Forth and Endrick is a rural ward that was nonetheless hard fought between SNP and Conservatives in 2022, and with no realistic chance of anyone else winning, is hard to call between those two. NOTE: This is an auto-post, I am on holiday very much not in Scotland still!

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026All by-elections are unique, sure, but there’s a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you’re betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent.

Two by-elections today: Wick and Caithness is going to be a Highland classic, in that it's either the Lib Dems or an Independent that will win it, but it's impossible to predict how well the latter will do. NOTE: This is an auto-post, I am on holiday very much not in Scotland still!

ballotbox.scotLocal Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disasterThere is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.

22 Sept

New article: Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.

21 Sept

This by the way is why it is moronic in the extreme for this to be starting from a position of "we must cut costs" and thus an absolute refusal to institute two tiers independent of one another, rather than starting from "how we do we improve local democracy" and then accepting that entails £££

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

We can't have 3-4 ward councillors doing aspects of governance currently done by a whole council, that's simply too few and has very limited scope for fair, democratic representation, but if we had 9+ (per my NM Lite proposals) the regional councils are far, far too big.

21 Sept

No option - massive regional councils, tiny local councils, indirect apportionment of one tier from members of the other - is democratically optimal (tiny local councils especially would be actively *anti*-democratic, but one of them is where we'll have to end up. Messy and, frankly, stupid.

gov.scotPublic sector reform: proposalScottish Government proposal for reform of local governance

21 Sept

The suggested scope of this is actually pretty good - scale of regions fits my New Municipalism Lite model, "community" level the OG version - but I am very concerned by the idea of double-jobbing the same people as regional and local councillors www.gov.scot/publications...

There is possibly a middle ground though: apportion regional council seats proportionally amongst local councillors; e.g. if there are 40 seats at region level, a party has 10% of local councillors, it gets 4 regional seats. Not ideal imo but tolerable.

19 Sept

Scottish Labour leadership election result: Michael Marra (North East Scotland): 4266 (63.2%) Joe Fagan (South Scotland): 2485 (36.8%)

dumfriesandgalloway.gov.ukCouncil Pays Tribute to Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE | Dumfries and Galloway CouncilDumfries and Galloway Council is deeply saddened by the death of Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE, a much-respected colleague who devoted many years of his life to public service and to the communities ...

With just weeks to go before the seat could just lie vacant until May's elections, we're unfortunately still racking up the by-elections following the death of sitting councillors. In Dumfries and Galloway, Annandale East and Eskdale Labour councillor, Archie Dryburgh, has sadly just passed.

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Avondale and StonehouseA relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.

By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.

Avondale and Stonehouse (S. Lan) BE, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 1025 (27.6%, -0.8) LAB: 743 (20%, +0.2) RUK: 727 (19.6%, new) CON: 393 (10.6%, -10) LD: 357 (9.6%, new) GRN: 303 (8.2%, +1.8) IND: 107 (2.9%, new) Your: 45 (1.2%, new) ADF: 12 (0.3%, new) (Non-returns 24.8%) SNP elected stage 9.

Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: SNP, Independent: Chapelton Labour, Reform: Stonehouse Conservative, Your Party: Drumclog / Glassford Lib Dem: Western Strathaven Green: Eastern and Southern Strathaven

Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party: SNP <-> Green Labour <-> Lib Dem Reform -> Conservative Conservative -> Lib Dem Independent -> Lib Dem Your Party -> Green Alliance for Democracy and Freedom -> Reform/Conservative tie

Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election transfers, votes at final head-to-head stage (vs same party matchup in 2022): SNP: 1349 (36.3%, +4.4) Labour: 1198 (32.3%, -2.6) Didn't Transfer: 1165 (31.4%, -1.8)

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.

17 Sept

By-election today for South Lanarkshire's Avondale and Stonehouse; tossup between the SNP and Labour in my view. Also features a special guest star candidate in one of the people who beat me in 2017, without which, Ballot Box Scotland would never have come to be!

westcoasttoday.co.ukTributes paid to Mid Argyll councillor and Provost Dougie PhilandDouglas Trevor Philand, known to many as Dougie, served the Mid Argyll area as a local councillor for 19 years and latterly held the office of Provost of Argyll and Bute.

14 Sept

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

And another late term by-election due in sad circumstances following the death of Mid Argyll Independent councillor (and Argyll and Bute Provost) Douglas Philand

14 Sept

Excusing both from the 2022 count, and the SNP beat a third Independent Andy Cameron by about 21%; their closest party competitors were the Conservatives, who they'd beat by 26.5% after transfers. Big margins, but by-elections in rural Scotland can be very different beasts.

14 Sept

SNP clearly in the running, and so could be Cameron or A N Other Independent. I'd also throw the Lib Dems into the mix; they historically did well in Argyll, and they doubled their list vote in the Holyrood seat in May, perhaps positioning themselves as the obvious anti-SNP party option locally.

13 Sept

Once again asking why, in the year 2026, Scotland had an election for which every result was publicly "oooh, mystery box! secret! can't tell you what happened except at the overall constituency level!" and then most of our neighbours are just like "hello here's a livemap" www.svt.se/datajournali...

13 Sept

It's really easy to think this stuff doesn't matter but it's amazing for getting a proper sense of what happened on the day. For example, this Kiruna voting district has just seen the Greens treble their vote: why? Obviously as a foreigner, I have no idea, but there'll be a story to tell locally!

newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scotNM Lite – New Municipalism ScotlandWhen I’ve published successive versions of New Municipalism, it’s always been with the understanding that I was presenting a somewhat utopian vision with little prospect of implementation. Wholesale…

12 Sept

Here it is: the Lite version of my New Municipalism project. There's an opportunity for local government reform that nobody expected, but it needs to be genuinely local and democratic. Informal and thus unaccountable regionalisation and mergers won't cut it. newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot/lite

12 Sept

This is, I think, a more realistic model than the main project, something even closer to Denmark's system of governance (remember: the largest councils by population on the mainland!). 83 Districts in 8 Regions, plus the 3 Islands, and a one-third cut to the proposed number of elected councillors.

12 Sept

If you agree with the general shape of this vision, make sure you let councillors and MSPs know: when (... if?) the Scottish Government launches a consultation, respond and reference the report! (If you don't like it that's fine but you don't need to be rude to me like folk were last time xoxo)

11 Sept

Isn't that lovely, and so informative, wow, truly an Adequately Designed For Its Purpose map of the 2026 Holyrood election results, perfect for an MSP office, for a talking point in the living room, or even to really get chat going in the barber shop!

redbubble.com2026 Scottish Parliament Results Map by BallotBoxScot | RedbubbleThis poster shows the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election, and would be the ideal addition to a constituency office, classroom, living room, or indeed any room inhabited by political nerd...

11 Sept

You too can furnish whichever of these rooms (and more!) you want with a lovely little map here: www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1835... (I won't actually make much money from these, but I know a few MSPs bought my 2021 version for their office, so I figured I might as well make a 2026 one!)

9 Sept

The most important part of any project is picking nice colours (I mean I picked these two years ago for the previous New Municipalism release, but I'm enjoying them again as I beaver away on my opportunity-seizing NM Lite report)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

Love to get home from a long day of doing policy work in the office to, err, do different policy work at home... aiming to write this whole thing up by the end of the weekend, for those interested - and if you are interested, raise it with your MSPs, in the context of Public Service Reform activity!

8 Sept

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

Something I was working on anyway for these purposes, since it's not helpful just to moan, was a re-jigging of my New Municipalism project proposals for a return to a Region-and-District model. Left are those originals, which are pretty maximalist. Right is a pared down, more realistic version.

taxjustice.scottaxjustice.scot

8 Sept

As ever, I emphasise that beyond democratic systems and LGBT rights, I try to avoid actual policy discussions as BBS, but the Council Tax situation really is unsustainably bizarre, and there's a great paper by Tax Justice Scotland that's worth a read: taxjustice.scot/wp-content/u...

ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.

8 Sept

By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026 The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.

7 Sept

The Holyrood 6 plus two independents for the Midstocket and Rosemount by-election, including regular Aberdeen candidate Simon McLean who I am only realising in hindsight was perhaps surprisingly absent in George Street and Harbour - loves an Aberdeen by-election this lad.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot

Midstocket and Rosemount was just 1.9% between the SNP and Labour after transfers in 2022; I don't see any other party being a viable winner. With both parties struggling, by-election dynamics might favour Labour, but that requires them to make the top 2. If not, SNP may yet win. So, a tossup.