Ash Oro

Ash Oro

@ashoro.co.uk

Ex Merchant Navy officer and now Merchant Navy teacher and creator of online training courses. Author of the Series "The Hormuz Crisis" - Volume 1 The Illusion of Open Seas e-book on Amazon now. https://www.linkedin.com/in/ash-oro https://ashoro.co.uk/

4.3K followers 1.2K following5.8K posts

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I will put this up on here too - as I am adding it to my website and changing my LinkedIn status as well... I am currently open to any offers of work for a Maritime Education Professional / a Maritime Logistics Strategist. Contact through my website. #MaritimeEducation #MaritimeStrategist #Work

ashoro.co.ukAsh Oro | Maritime Training, Compliance & Strategic Risk ExpertiseMaritime training, compliance and strategic risk expertise for shipping organisations, leadership teams, media and industry audiences.

The UKMTO is reporting that there is a vessel on fire off the coast of Iraq. No news of crew / environment impact, and no report of how the fire started or whether this was an attack. I will keep a watch for any new information.

The UKMTO are reporting a late report of a vessel attacked and disabled in the Strait of Hormuz 3 days ago. Crew is safe but no other details yet. This is the 32nd registered attack on shipping in the area this month. #TheHormuzCrisis

Is anyone watching the spread-bet websites to see if anyone in the Washington DC area is betting heavily on strikes on Iran today?

@loadingreadyrun.com My players have spoken and my 3d printer has responded. Tackling this campaign next…

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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There is also the possibility that the crisis ends politically without restoring the old shipping system. Insurance, routing and security decisions may stay selective. An open sea lane is not necessarily an economically normal one. That has been my concern throughout.

So my answer is that ships moving again will mark the beginning of recovery, not its completion. I expect a long winter of high costs, potentially stretching into 2027. The question is not just when trade returns, but when the cost and confidence of trading return with it? #TheHormuzCrisis

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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I have therefore separated “normalisation” into stages. If the crisis ended tomorrow, freight and bunker markets might respond within days or weeks. Cargo already at sea would still arrive at costs set earlier. Retail prices would take longer, and some might never return to old levels.

For imported goods I would look at months, not days; for food and manufactured goods, potentially several quarters as contracts and inventories turn over. For diesel, the IEA's stock outlook points into the second half of 2027. These are conditional estimates, not a promised timetable.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Food adds another delay. The Food and Drink Federation forecasts food inflation reaching 3.9% by December, with a peak of 6.4% possible in July 2027. That forecast includes energy, farming, ingredients and logistics—not just freight. It suggests the cost pressure could outlast the fighting.

Household energy has its own timetable. The current Ofgem cap runs to the end of December, and future prices depend partly on wholesale costs already being set. So an improvement in shipping or gas markets tomorrow would not automatically undo bills already priced for winter.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Those figures matter because the increase has already entered the supply chain. It is no longer just a risk someone is forecasting. A product made with expensive inputs today may not reach a shelf for weeks or months. Prices can keep rising after conditions at sea improve.

Diesel is the clearest example. The UK average was 199.33p per litre in the week of 19 October, against 174.57p for petrol. The IEA expects global diesel and gasoil inventories to remain tight well into 2027, with lost stocks unlikely to be fully rebuilt before the second half.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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For example, an extra $1,500 to move a container holding $50,000 of goods adds 3% to their import value if fully passed through. But shipping is only one part of the calculation. The same energy crisis affects production, packaging, warehousing, refrigeration and road transport.

This is where the British figures become concerning. ONS data for September show imported materials and fuels up 9.9% year-on-year, manufacturers' input prices up 8.3%, and factory-gate prices up 4.6%. Transport and storage service prices rose 10.7% over the year.

ons.gov.ukProducer price inflation, UK - Office for National StatisticsChanges in the prices of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers, including price indices of materials and fuels purchased and factory gate prices.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Shipping lines are also publishing separate charges. CMA CGM's October emergency fuel surcharge is $265 per TEU for head-haul dry cargo, or $530 for a forty-foot container, where the charge applies. It is an actual commercial surcharge, not a modelled future possibility.

Does this mean imports will cost 10% or 20% more? No. The effect depends on cargo value, volume, contract terms and whether the importer or retailer absorbs some of it. A container of electronics and a container of cheap, bulky furniture will feel the same freight increase differently.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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These are not gratuitous extras. Merchant seafarers have been killed and injured, and ships continue to be attacked. The IMO recorded 120 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarer fatalities in the Middle East crisis by 22 October. Those people must remain central to any discussion of costs.

imo.orgMiddle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidentsHighlighted (confirmed) incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East.

The freight market is giving us measurable evidence. Drewry's global container index stood at $4,585 per forty-foot container on 22 October. Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,632, more than double its level a year earlier. These are the prices of moving goods, not oil futures.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Then there is insurance. War-risk cover is priced against the vessel, route and perceived threat, not simply the value of the goods onboard. Even a 1% additional premium on a $100 million ship is $1 million. And cover may be unavailable at any commercially workable price.

We also need to consider the people aboard. The current IBF notices continue to treat designated Hormuz and Red Sea waters as Warlike Operations Areas. On covered ships, this means enhanced pay and compensation arrangements, including rights concerning refusal and repatriation.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Spread that over 7,000 loaded forty-foot containers and it is about $185 extra per container from the diversion alone. That is not an actual freight quote, and it must not be added blindly to one. It demonstrates how a longer route changes the underlying economics.

Returning through Suez can reduce those costs. But the industry still has to price the risk of passing the Bab al-Mandeb, and operators do not all face the same threats. In September, Suez traffic remained 39% below pre-Houthi levels; Bab al-Mandeb traffic was 47% below.

lloydslistintelligence.comRed Sea Brief: 15 October 2026Suez traffic topped 100m dwt worth of tonnage for second consecutive month, with September being the busiest month since December 2023. The gains were largely driven by containerships.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Now consider the Cape of Good Hope. Avoiding the Red Sea can add substantial distance and time to an Asia–Europe voyage. The extra fuel is only one cost. The ship is occupied for longer, so the operator gets fewer voyages from the same vessel each year.

I modelled a containership taking 12 additional days, consuming 120 tonnes daily at $900/tonne, with $50,000 daily vessel costs and $600,000 of canal charges avoided. The net increase is about $1.3 million for that voyage, before further disruption costs.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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Start with ships' fuel, or bunkers. On Friday, VLSFO was about $963 per tonne in Singapore, $981 in Fujairah and $766 in Rotterdam. High-sulphur fuel and marine gas oil have different prices and restrictions, but the underlying point is straightforward: moving ships remains expensive.

A ship burning 100 tonnes of VLSFO a day at Singapore prices has a fuel bill approaching $96,000 per day. That is before the crew, maintenance, insurance, hire and port costs. It is an illustration, not a universal ship rate, but it shows the scale of the problem.

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

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The apparent improvement is real in one respect. Shipping has adapted: more Gulf oil is moving via alternative arrangements, and some container services have returned to the Red Sea. But adapting to disruption is not the same as removing its costs.

The IEA reports that global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels a day in September. Yet refined products and LPG shipments from the Middle East remain far below their pre-war levels. More crude oil in the system does not mean an equal recovery in diesel, petrol or gas.

iea.orgOil Market Report - October 2026 - IEAThe IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on o...

I am always being asked: “How long will it take after the Hormuz Crisis ends for prices in the UK to return to normal?” I have spent the last week looking at the numbers behind the shipping and supply industries to try to work out an answer. It is not particularly reassuring. #TheHormuzCrisis

I have held off on a longer update this week because the situation around Hormuz has been moving in both directions. There are signs of recovering trade, but also further attacks and persistent uncertainty. That makes it a useful moment to look beyond the daily headlines.

The first problem is what we mean by “normal”. Do we mean ships moving again? Oil being exported? Freight rates falling? Or the price of diesel, food and household goods returning to where they were before February? These are not the same measure, and they recover at different speeds.

After weeks of the story not breaking through, for whatever reason, Al Jazeera is reporting that a tanker that was hit (supposedly by a mine but not confirmed) did cause a spill. That spill is still causing beaches to be closed and is having a large environmental impact. #TheHormuzCrisis

... ... ... I am getting angry, scared, depressed and fearful all at once. This truly is the worst of all possible timelines. #TheHormuzCrisis #IranUSAWar

The UKMTO has released a delayed report for another tanker that was hit in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Very few details other than it was able to continue to it's next port of call. This is the 32nd incident this month so far in the area. #TheHormuzCrisis

Nobody that has ever been near a war talks like this. I just hate this man - so much...

#TheHormuzCrisis meets #YemenWar meets #RussianAppeasement... Is anyone tired of #TrumpWinning yet?

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social

Now at its highest level in five months.

All of my dashboard alerts just went off... It may be a long night... #TheHormuzCrisis

5 mins ago - This was reported too... May be a concidence?

The UKMTO have released another report of a tanker attack, this time up in Iraqi waters at the western end of the Gulf of Arabia. A tanker has been hit by a projectile last night with no casualties or environmental damage. The number of attacks on merchant ships this month in the area is 31.

The UKMTO has confirmed another attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. It was hit by a projectile this morning, causing a fire. No casualties or reported environmental damage. This is the 30th attack on shipping in the area this month.

Taking my kids to “Circus Skills” club on a Thursday as a whole family activity. Got back into juggling and now need my own clubs. But they are expensive and I am rubbish… However - I do have a 3d printer… 🤣 No idea if these will work once the handles are finished.

Iran are claiming a third vessel has got a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Again this is disputed. Of the 6 supposed mine strikes reported by Iran over the last 4 days I can find no evidence of any of them. I am going to stop reporting them now - unless I get independent confirmation.

The UKMTO are reporting of an "incident" between a tanker and security forces in the Gulf of Oman. No other details as to who, what or how. I will keep watching for more information.