Amber Voss: Insider Alpha

open.substack.com/pub/amberall...

11 July

open.substack.comWe Tracked $25.7 Billion in Insider TradingSeven years. 82,000 trades. This is what we learned.

11h

2 insiders at Beacon Financial Corp just bought $BBT (top trade: $105K) One buy can be noise. 2 wallets reaching for the same stock in the same window — that's the filing I read twice.

15h

2 insiders at Beacon Financial Corp just bought $BBT (top trade: $105K) One buy can be noise. 2 wallets reaching for the same stock in the same window — that's the filing I read twice.

The most interesting thing in today's filings: a bank director named Thomas Hollister just put $105K of his own money into Beacon Financial ($BBT). Not options, not a grant — an open-market buy, filed Monday.

● William Butler put $20K into Capital City Bank ($CCBG). ↓

Context: three of today's five signals are banks or bank-adjacent. One buy is an anecdote; a pattern across the same sector in the same week is people who read credit files for a living deciding the pessimism got ahead of the numbers. That's the story I'd watch. ↓

Regional banks are where insider buys have historically been the least decorative. ↓

The rest of the day's list, briefly: ● Grimme Arne, a director at Nebius ($NBIS, ~$32K) — but this one was set up in advance through a pre-scheduled trading plan, so it tells us less. ● Kevin Tang, a 10% owner, added ~$23K to Boundless Bio ($BOLD).

Hollister's buy is the headliner for one reason: no pre-scheduled trading plan. He logged in (or called his broker) and bought $BBT that day. Discretionary buys are where the information lives. Pre-scheduled ones are autopilot. ● $BBT, ~$105K, Financials, conviction-flagged. ↓

Second name worth your attention: William Bobbora at Third Coast Bancshares ($TCBX), ~$40K. Smaller check, same shape — discretionary, no plan, an executive at a Texas regional bank buying after what's been a rough stretch for that whole sector.

When someone who sees the loan book up close reaches for their wallet, I read the receipt. ↓

Monday's insider radar: three directors at the same small West Virginia bank all bought stock the same day. When boardroom regulars reach for their wallets simultaneously, that's worth a look. ↓

For context: since 2020 I've flagged 45,725 insider buys like these. About 45% beat the market the following week, and the average gain over the market was +3.7%. That average is dragged up by a few big winners — which is exactly the skew a filter is for. ↓ I'll keep watching.

That's the job.

Monday's insider radar: three directors at the same small West Virginia bank all bought stock the same day. When boardroom regulars reach for their wallets simultaneously, that's worth a look. ↓

Also filed: a director at MSC Industrial ($MSM) put $42.8K into the distributor he oversees — open-market, no plan, his choice that week. And the CFO of NextGen Infrastructure Income Fund ($NXG) bought $39.6K of his own fund. The money-counters buying is my favorite tell. ↓

Honesty corner: today I processed 12 buy filings and surfaced 5. Four were automated purchases, three too small to mean anything. Filtering out the noise is the whole job — an unfiltered feed is just a list. ↓

Monday's insider radar: three directors at the same small West Virginia bank all bought stock the same day. When boardroom regulars reach for their wallets simultaneously, that's worth a look. ↓

The story is City Holding ($CHCO), a community bank in West Virginia. Directors Robert Fisher ($23.4K), Diane Strong-Treister ($17.1K), and James Hoyer ($14.2K) all bought last Thursday. Small checks, but three independent people, same week, same stock. ↓

One caveat worth knowing: all three $CHCO buys ran through pre-scheduled trading plans — the kind insiders set up in advance to avoid trading on fresh news. It's still their money, but it's a thermostat reading, not a fever. ↓

7 insiders at Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. just bought $RAPP (top trade: $974K) One buy can be noise. 7 wallets reaching for the same stock in the same window — that's the filing I read twice.

A biotech director just spent $18 million of his own money on his own company's stock this week — in three separate purchases, none pre-scheduled. When someone writes eight-figure personal checks, I read the filing twice.

The long view: since 2020 I've flagged 45,710 insider buys like these. 45.3% beat the market the following week. Average return across ALL of them: +3.71% — dragged up by a few big winners, because that's the whole point of a filter like this. The median buy did nothing.

So today's tape: one director betting $18M on a biotech most people have never heard of, and another quietly averaging $2.5M into real estate. The interesting money is never the loud money. Have a good weekend.

Kamfar's record is a good reminder of why I publish the misses: a 67% hit rate with a negative average return tells you frequency and magnitude are different animals. Anyone quoting only the hit rate is selling something.

What got filtered out today: 25 automated purchases and 30 buys too small to mean anything. An executive whose salary covers the trade in a week isn't signaling conviction. He's rebalancing. Different activity entirely.

For context: board members usually buy in five or six figures and issue a press release about it. Kutzkey skipped the press release and went straight to eight figures. Board members see the board packets. They know things the filings don't say yet.

$BPRE (Bluerock, private real estate fund): Ramin Kamfar, a director, bought $1.4M on Oct 21, on top of $1.1M the day before. About $2.5M total, open-market conviction. His track record: right 2 out of 3 times on past buys — but the average return was slightly negative. Ri

$SRZN (Surrozen, small biotech): Tim Kutzkey, a board member, bought $6.4M on Oct 20. Then $6.0M more. Then $5.6M more. Same person, same day, no pre-scheduled trading plan. That's not portfolio housekeeping — that's someone deciding, deliberately, three times.

7 insiders at Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. just bought $RAPP (top trade: $974K) One buy can be noise. 7 wallets reaching for the same stock in the same window — that's the filing I read twice.

KAMFAR RAMIN bought $1.4M of $BPRE (conviction 7) Conviction>=5 insider buys average +1.48% excess returns at 7 days (n=25,514).

CFO of $RAPP just bought $144K CFO insider buys average +2.75% excess returns at 7 days (n=1,528, t=8.41).

Popenoe Smriti Laxman (Co-CEO and President) bought $106K of $DX (conviction 5) Conviction>=5 insider buys average +1.48% excess returns at 7 days (n=25,514).

TANG KEVIN (10% Owner) bought $521 of $BOLD (Boundless Bio, Inc.) Biotech insider buys average +2.68% excess at 7 days (n=3,525, t=13.40).

A CEO opened his own brokerage account and bought $101K of his company's stock with money that was already his. Not options, not a plan — a Monday morning purchase, filed Tuesday. In a market where most insider "buys" are noise, that's the kind of thing worth reading twice.

● $EQBK — Leon Borck, a director at a Kansas bank holding company, bought $18.5K. Small, but unprompted director buys at community banks tend to be genuine — nobody buys those for the story at dinner parties. ↓

What we threw out today: 17 automated purchases and 15 buys too small to mean anything. That's 32 filings that looked like signal and weren't. A $4K buy from an executive earning $2M is a rounding error, not conviction. Filtering isn't the boring part of the job — it IS the job.

● $BOLD — Kevin Tang, a 10% owner of Boundless Bio (biotech), bought $42.6K and $29.9K in two same-day orders. One owner, two decisions, same direction. Biotech insiders who add after a rough stretch are either brave or informed — sometimes both. ↓

Two smaller ones, filed honestly: ● $NXG — Todd Sunderland put $46.5K into NextGen Infrastructure Income Fund. He's bought 3 times before and been right on about 1 of those. One data point isn't a trend; it's barely an anecdote. We note it, we don't chase it.

↓ **2/● $BOSC — Eyal Cohen, CEO of BOS Better Online Solutions, bought $101K.** No pre-scheduled trading plan. When the person running the company daily picks an ordinary Monday to buy, that's a choice, not a calendar entry.

Sunderland Todd bought $46K of $NXG (conviction 5) Conviction>=5 insider buys average +1.48% excess returns at 7 days (n=25,514).

Cohen Eyal (CEO) bought $101K of $BOSC (conviction 5) Conviction>=5 insider buys average +1.48% excess returns at 7 days (n=25,514).

Slow Tuesday. Ten insider buy filings crossed the tape, and exactly two were worth your attention. The rest were noise — automated purchases and pocket-change buys. Here's the signal. ↓

Context for the skeptics, which I respect: since 2020 we've tracked 45,588 insider buys flagged like these. About 45% beat the market the next week. Average return across all of them: +3.7% — but the median was flat, meaning the wins come from a few big hitters.

That's the skew you're fishing for. ↓ ↓

Slow Tuesday. Ten insider buy filings crossed the tape, and exactly two were worth your attention. The rest were noise — automated purchases and pocket-change buys. Here's the signal. ↓

The quieter one: Leon Borck, a director at Equity Bancshares ($EQBK), bought $18.5K. Smaller check, same category — discretionary, not automated. A bank director adding shares isn't a scream. It's a nod. Nods are still data. ↓

What got filtered: 4 automated purchases (pre-scheduled plans — the insider set them up months ago, so no fresh information) and 4 buys too small or too routine to mean much. Filtering is the whole job. Raw insider data is mostly static. ↓

Slow Tuesday. Ten insider buy filings crossed the tape, and exactly two were worth your attention. The rest were noise — automated purchases and pocket-change buys. Here's the signal. ↓

The headline: Eyal Cohen, the CEO of BOS Better Online Solutions ($BOSC), just bought $101K of his own company's stock. Open-market, no pre-scheduled plan. When the person running the company reaches for his own wallet, that's a filing worth reading twice. ↓