Alejandro Fernández-Roldán

🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social! “How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty” We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately* www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I am contractually obligated to tell you that I wrote a book and that it is out in February. February is LGBTQ+ History Month - serendipitous timing for those who want to host an event for students and staff to mark the occasion of the month ;) Call me, maybe. www.therainbowvote.com 🏳️‍🌈🗳️

Just as Net Zero returns to the headlines in light of the decision to approve Jackdaw, I'm excited to speak this afternoon @sotonpolitics.bsky.social about why a popularly endorsed strategy to boost public support for policy action on climate change can't be as effective as its proponents make out.

Is British politics uniquely short-termist? Voters seem to think so. @philipjcowley.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and I just released @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling on political short/long-termism across Europe. The UK stands out from its neighbours. www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/research...

🎉 New article in @eupthejournal.bsky.social, co-authored with @tonirodon.bsky.social The EU channelled billions to local governments through NextGeneration EU. Did the mayors who delivered it get rewarded at the ballot box? Spoiler: No 🧵1/

New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! “Polling and parliamentary representation” with @drphilphil.bsky.social & @aikowagner.bsky.social We ask whether voters systematically responded to public opinion polls during the 2025 election campaign in Germany. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

You know those (rare) papers that really make you proud? In new piece out at APR, we show that #AffectivePolarization likely spills onto other types of non-political polarization - notably, PREFERENCES FOR CATS VS. DOGS (aka “affective PAWlarization”) paper: tinyurl.com/jn48bypp data: osf.io/4p2zu

📢 We are hiring a pre-doctoral researcher to work on attitudes towards climate change at the Dept of Political Science at UAB: 🗓️ Deadline extended until 9th October! ❓ Please, spread the call and let me know if you have any question. 🌱 attclimate.net

New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.

📢 Call for expressions of interest for a 4-years PhD position within my research project ‘Minority rights in an age of immigration: democracy, deservingness and elite influences’. ⏳ Deadline: 9 October. Questions welcome!

Back in Barcelona after a few intense weeks on the road presenting new research - ECPR in Krakow, @tact-forsed.bsky.social’s project meeting in Dundee and #EPOP2026 in Liverpool to round it up. Met new people, saw friends, got great feedback and drank perhaps too much coffee (both good and bad)

Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...

I had fun writing the Last Word in the latest (penultimate, I believe) issue of Political Insight. Read for free here: journals.sagepub.com/share/PUST6R... tl;dr: Burnham must continue to take easy short-term wins and keep banging the drum about the long-term vision those short-term wins serve.

📣 Big news! 🗓️ Today, @tonirodon.bsky.social and I we are releasing the first version of the ATTCLIMATE panel dataset! ➡️ 4 waves of panel survey data (2023–2025) on citizens' attitudes toward climate change and support for mitigation policies. 🔗 attclimate.net

Another one under the belt #ecprgc2026

The academic process is 10% having ideas and 90% discovering why they won't work

New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...

1/ Happy to share our paper 'Still Instrumentally Inclusive' w/ @turnbulldugarte.com in @apsrjournal.bsky.social. Understanding homonationalism remains important. Recent events (Berlin) have shown how quickly LGBT+ rights can become instrumentalized in debates about immigration and Islam.

🚨 Publication alert! Why is it so hard to win public support for concrete climate policies, even when there's broad consensus that action is needed? New paper with @tonirodon.bsky.social and @joelardiaca.bsky.social in @wepsocial.bsky.social 🧵� @politiquesuab.bsky.social @politiquesupf.bsky.social

A new publication of possible interest with @snsoroka.bsky.social on the relationship between negativity bias in media coverage and misinformation: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Should immigrants be allowed to vote? This is a highly politically charged question. In a new research paper and substack piece, me and @tarekjaziri.bsky.social test the biggest objection to letting foreign residents vote locally, and find it doesn't hold up. 🧵 simonhix.substack.com/p/why-not-gi...

Shout out to all my colleagues for their great presentations, thoughtful ideas and heat acclimation capabilities

If you work on public opinion and/or political behaviour you might want to consider submitting your abstract(s) to JCPOP 2026 in Barcelona - All the info 👇

Always chuffed to get a spot in one of the world's great papers, the @financialtimes.com, not least when I'm writing about something I really care about. But while I'm a long-term advocate for electoral reform, I do think we need to be realistic (and principled) about what, when and how.

Paying peer reviewers works. Expanded Fast & Fair experiment @biologyopen.bsky.social: • 5.5 vs 37.7 working days to decision with reviews • ~3 vs ~9 reviewer invitations per manuscript • no reduction in editor-assessed review quality • similar acceptance rates www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...

📚New paper with @jakobschwoerer.bsky.social @saengler.bsky.social in @prxjournal.bsky.social📚 We show that moving toward the far right on immigration doesn't benefit mainstream parties. Not even in elections where immigration is salient. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

🚨 Western democracies are often described as polarized. @katharinalawall.bsky.social, @mtsakiris.bsky.social + I study how polarization actually feels. Now published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, we asked citizens in 5 European countries to report their emotions ⬇️ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers

The DEC research group is now welcoming expressions of interest for Marie Curie postdocs. If you are interested in joining a stimulating and healthy environment I'm happy to chat about research avenues, group activities, and what it's actually like to work here! Feel free to repost and DM me :)

It’s not the first time I’ve said this on Bluesky: you will always learn something from reading Matthew

Grateful for the opportunity to present joint work with @galais.bsky.social & @mguinjoan.bsky.social today at the @tact-forsed.bsky.social conference in @charlesuni.cuni.cz - Almost as important, it is my first time in Prague 🫶

Probably the most talented early-career political scientist out there just became a doctor! If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her. Do it and thank me later 😉

“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position - Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.” - @jaclarner.bsky.social #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

Polling enthusiasts, you're going to like this one! 🤩

"Just because you can turn to AI at a moment’s notice doesn’t mean you should. There is something to be said for planning ahead before interacting with the AI, and for blocking out time without it — leaving space for the human in the loop to stop, to reflect [...]" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

🌀 👣 @alinavranceanu.bsky.social & @bpetrova.bsky.social show that in Western Europe, generous #welfare systems – perhaps counterintuitively – make natives more favourably inclined toward #immigrants. 💸Indeed, cutting benefits risks exacerbating anti-immigrant sentiment 👇🏾

Still controlling for gender without thinking about why? You can cite me💚👩‍🔬💚 I show that the gender gap in progressive climate and environmental views is a persistent empirical regularity that cannot be explained by differences in socioeconomic background, political ideology, or risk aversion.

@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Join us tomorrow for this exciting talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social in the MZES Social Science Data Lab! Details and Zoom link ⬇️