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A forecast page overwrites its old answer. Here is one date with the argument kept. Seattle, Friday Aug 7: fourteen days out, four models put the high anywhere from 71 to 96°F. It verified at 86°.

On the way there the spread doubled twice — 5°→11°, then 8°→18° — and the camps merged three times, changing their mind twice. Sunday the cooler camp won. Monday night the hotter camp. Thursday the middle one.

The final consensus called 82°. ERA5 says the day came in at 86° — inside the range the models still spanned, above the middle of it. ECMWF landed closest, off 0.6°. AIFS ran 6° cold.