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A forecast page overwrites its old answer. Here is one date with the argument kept. Seattle, Friday Aug 7: fourteen days out, four models put the high anywhere from 71 to 96°F. It verified at 86°.

10/8/26, 8:26 pm0 reposts0 likes

The Spread

@spreadwx.com

10 Aug

On the way there the spread doubled twice — 5°→11°, then 8°→18° — and the camps merged three times, changing their mind twice. Sunday the cooler camp won. Monday night the hotter camp. Thursday the middle one.

The Spread

@spreadwx.com

10 Aug

The final consensus called 82°. ERA5 says the day came in at 86° — inside the range the models still spanned, above the middle of it. ECMWF landed closest, off 0.6°. AIFS ran 6° cold.

The Spread

@spreadwx.com

10 Aug

One date is not a league table — a model can win a day it deserved to lose. Every lead, every model, and what verified: spreadwx.com/model-accuracy/seattle-washington/2026-08-07

spreadwx.comWas the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Aug 7?14 days out the models said 71–96; it hit 86. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.