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Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

Today in London (10am) the UNEP releases its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return They say the chance of holding warming to below 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is gone. To get on the "lowest possible" scenario pathway (ie 1.7-1.8°C) emissions must fall by ~6.4% annually until 2030.

Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

During COVID emissions fell by ~5% 2026? 👇🏻

Glen Peters@glenpeters.bsky.social

What might global fossil CO2 emissions do in 2026? Based on IEA estimates, fossil CO2 emissions could decline 0.5% in 2026. A big 2.4% drop in oil & small 0.5% drop in gas, is partially offset by a 1.2% increase in coal. All very uncertain! www.energiogklima.no/nyhet/hormuz...

Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

Page 32: "Decades of insufficient action have now measurably worsened the achievable climate outcomes for this century. The lowest peak warming supported by feasible and sustainable pathways is now around 1.7°C. which is about 0.1°C higher than in AR6." "Locked in by delay"

Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

As a result of all this - this is the reality we face: ie existing policies provide a very low probability of remaining below 2°C

Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

And when will we reach 2ºC you ask. Well quoting Qinjian Jin & Bing Pu (8 October 2026) "The same framework was applied to estimate the timing of the 2.0°C threshold. Ensemble-mean crossing times are projected to occur in 2040." So that would be in ~13 years. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

nature.comA recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028 - npj Climate and Atmospheric Sciencenpj Climate and Atmospheric Science - A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028

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Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit@peterdutoit.com

Here is @wyeates.bsky.social asking the £ million question that was on *everyone’s* mind as the Emissions Gap Report briefing unfolded earlier today. Transcript in Alt.