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A 🧵 on current SDF/AANES situation in: 1. Northern Aleppo & Til Rifaat 2. Minbij region 3. Deir-ez-Zor, specifically Khasham pocket Based on conversations with people on the ground there. (As a caveat, I'm not a member of the SDF and don't speak for them)

1. Northern Aleppo. SDF command were aware of the state of SAA and have been actively planning for a collapse for some time, but were unaware of the timing of HTS's operation. Once it started, they began operation to evacuate as many civilians as possible to the East.

The problem they had is that there are 250k+ refugees in this region, in addition to many families that have lived there for generations. At same time there has been a influx of other minorities into SDF areas. Moving this many people is a huge op regardless of how well planned.

West of Minbij the SDF was spread over a large area with long supply lines (partially through SAA-held territory) and saliant at Tel Rifat stretching deep into areas under SNA. It was considered to costly to mount a defence and so a withdrawal was the most sensible option...

...but at the same time they could not force residents there to leave their homes prior to outbreak of hostilities. Both politically and militarily they were in a difficult position.

As a result there are now 200k+ refugees on their way to Minbij+Tabqa, under SDF control. HTS appears to have allowed this to take place, but the SNA have taken advantage of it and have been raiding convoys. They have posted videos of them torturing & beheading those captured.

Şêx Meksûd (N.Aleppo) is considered a fortress and a sizeable SDF presence will remain there as long as there are people to defend. This map released by HTS is broadly accurate - SDF maintain control over the neighbourhood and still have units North of Aleppo to harrass SNA.

I can't get hard info on whether a formal agreement exists between SDF command and HTS regarding deconfliction in the Aleppo region, but it looks pretty clear that there at least some kind of informal agreement on the ground.

2. Minbij region SDF have doubled down on opsec recently, and combined with HTS+SNA cutting off power and internet this means very little info about their actions and positions has been getting out. Many of the areas currently mapped to be 'under SNA' are actually grey zones.

Some of these areas have a sizeable presence of small SDF units conducting ambushes and raids on the SNA advances. There's already videos confirming 30+ SNA dead from these. This goes for Deir Hefir and the villages around Minbij that the SNA have claimed.

So far SDF losses have been relatively low, but I suspect the toll on civilians to rise as more information comes out about the large evacuation convoy attempting to get back to SDF lines.