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A 🧵 on current SDF/AANES situation in: 1. Northern Aleppo & Til Rifaat 2. Minbij region 3. Deir-ez-Zor, specifically Khasham pocket Based on conversations with people on the ground there. (As a caveat, I'm not a member of the SDF and don't speak for them)

1. Northern Aleppo. SDF command were aware of the state of SAA and have been actively planning for a collapse for some time, but were unaware of the timing of HTS's operation. Once it started, they began operation to evacuate as many civilians as possible to the East.

West of Minbij the SDF was spread over a large area with long supply lines (partially through SAA-held territory) and saliant at Tel Rifat stretching deep into areas under SNA. It was considered to costly to mount a defence and so a withdrawal was the most sensible option...

...but at the same time they could not force residents there to leave their homes prior to outbreak of hostilities. Both politically and militarily they were in a difficult position.

As a result there are now 200k+ refugees on their way to Minbij+Tabqa, under SDF control. HTS appears to have allowed this to take place, but the SNA have taken advantage of it and have been raiding convoys. They have posted videos of them torturing & beheading those captured.