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Whatever it is, it can’t be big or dominating enough. Today’s version of the Republican MAGA party needs to be curb stomped.

sorry, I just don't trust polls anymore. Don't want to get my hopes up.

Why do they always come out of the woodwork to say this?

It is pretty damned hard to think that any material condition on the ground is going to break Red in the next 50 days. It is pretty easy to think that things will break worse for Red. Today I made plans to see that Musk documentary. Just to drive the ticket sales.

But it’s Texas, Maine,SC so I wouldn’t get our hopes up

Let’s hope so but most importantly no complacency….

Don’t trust them. Vote.

Vote early, preferably in person if possible. Encourage everyone you know to do the same!

What are the odds of them getting to 52+ seats?

Im Yirzeh Ha-Shem!

And vote early!

I think early voting in MN and VA starts next week.

"We'll deploy ICE on the beaches to show the tsunami who's boss!"

I am in awe of your ability to mesh two polar answers. In awe, I tell you. In awe 🙇

Not that long away. NC starts mailing absentee ballots this week and in a little over a month early voting begins.

“The overall turnout of eligible voters in the 2024 general election was 63.7%.[1] This was lower than the 2020 record of 66.6%[2] but higher than every other election year since at least 2004.” ballotpedia.org/Election_res...

GOP will be ballot purging

From your mouth to God’s ears.

Moderating would require admitting that he isn’t doing everything perfectly and he is quite simply too insecure to do that.

There’s $400m sitting in an account for Trump, he’s made stealing elections his whole schtick, he has loyal foot soldiers in key states - they’re going to fight this. Legally or illegally.

You need to have self-awareness to course correct & that is something Trump completely lacks.

They're not moderating, because the Rs have no intention of losing, even if they do.

Or: WON’T do anything without his blessing. They could have established independence early on. They are losers.

”Trump does not seem to care” Rather, he imagines that he is actually popular and *he* can win the election—and elections are won the same way they always have been. He never moderated, why start now?

There is also a polling weirdness. When votes know that an election matters, it is very hard for pollsters to predict who will vote. Makes each poll much less reliable. Not sure what it does to an agglomeration of good polls.

Elliot addressed the question here: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-21...

Obama flipped Indiana at 7.8. Shit gets weird when you get into 2s outcomes.

The Kentucky thing has some unique stuff going for it so it might not be representative. The outgoing Republican governor was widely unpopular and publicly corrupt AND Andy Beshear had a lot of name recognition both from his term as AG and because his Dad was governor in the 2000s.

Things will still be shitty, but of a wholly different type (laudatory)

It would take such a colossal wave that the gerrymanders turn into dummymanders. Pretty unlikely, but if it ever were to happen, it would be this election. We need federal legislation ending gerrymandering, and specifically outlawing political gerrymanders. SCOTUS said no statue prevented it.

But everyone in south carolina votes solely based on the skin colour. I believe many other polls with EXTREME D NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT due to objective changes in the sociological conditions, but south carolina...hard to believe.

Just googling. 1892, Republicans won about 40% of the vote and in 1894 won 48%, resulting in a pick up of 110 seats.

Obama winning Indiana type stuff.

I'd suggest managing expectations at this point. We're at, what, +6-7 now, something like that? Sure, there could be a partial collapse in the GOP base ala 2008 (+11) but we're still a long way from that, and all GOP efforts now (like the Dallas shit show) clearly are aimed at staving it off.

At some point you'll need to sort it according to who is flipping and where if it gets out there.

Think what it would look like without the bullshit gerrymandering allowed by the lawless Roberts Court

TBH, I think Darlene Graham is in a primary hole and those are basically equivalent to the Talarico +10 and Rogers +4 polls that came out around the TX-SEN runoff and MI-SEN primary

All signs point to this trend continuing over the next 6 weeks. The numbers aren't really surprising. The national mood is absolute dogshit, and for good reason. That pant-shitting asshole has made everyone's life worse.

Inshallah

Disagree. Overly optimistic numbers give a false sense of security and lead to poor turnout, especially amongst young voters.

"Vote like it's going to come down a margin of you plus the bestie you came with" doesn't have much of a ring to it, but it's the correct approach

Ignore those fucking polls . IGNORE THEM !!

Because in 420 out of 1000 simulations, Paxton wins. That’s what having a 42% chance means. That’s within “toss-up” territory

Lips, God, ears, etc

Republicans who can't distance themselves due to their base but will get destroyed in the midterms because they didn't distance themselves be like:

I suppose this is what happens when the Republican Party is actively alienating anyone who eats, drinks, catches diseases, or breathes.

But still, vote like your vote matters and that it may be the deciding vote.

Michigan. Wisconsin. Earlier Presidential polls.

Don't trust the polls, get your ass out and vote!

🤞

May they reap what they sow!

not me. feelin' good.

Writing postcards to Democratic voters in Texas right now to encourage them to vote for Talarico. We all still have to put the work in to make this happen!

Fascism is bad for polls. Racism, misogyny and pure hatred can make things fucky-wucky too. Anyone with a normal, functioning brain would know that but this so-called administration has a severe deficit of them.

So no 5,000 then?

This is correct. Accurate polling no longer exists. MAGAts and independents blame Democrats for inflation, Iran, fuel prices, closings of rural hospitals, and bad weather. Every MAGAt will vote, motivated by visceral hatred of Democrats, while Dems smugly stay home, confident of victory.

Polls have been inaccurate for 10 whole years now. Remember when Harris was going to win Iowa? MAGAts' hatred of Democrats is undiminished. They just pledged to cheat their way to victory. It's self-defeating to believe these polls, which have vastly overestimated Dems' strength for a full decade.

I know its the longest of shots, but the incumbent in TN-1 is starting to post like she is minus 5 in her internals. She is really going all out and even tried to distance herself from Trump on Iran.

Polls consistently undercount Republican votes by 4 to 8 percentage points. Talarico is behind.