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1/ We got 50,000 articles about how weak and impotent soft power has proven in the 21st century. Meanwhile, the "1st army in the world" can't bend Iran to its will and the (self-proclaimed) "2nd army in the world" is over a thousand days into its 3 day special military operation.

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I agree soft power matters, contra the Trumpers, but if the US was willing to take significant casualties, as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, it could do much more against Iran. It is not, which means that this was a risky "excursion" to undertake. Once the regime didn't split, the US was at a loss.

But your hard power is a function of your homefront's willingness to endure pain as much as it is your military budget. US hard power, ever since like, Vietnam, has been limited by the very limited appetite of its public for casualties!

Yes, but we still took thousands of casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan. People also were prepared for the 1991 Gulf War to be significantly worse than it was for the US. Trump did not bother to sell this war like Bush did. Not clear how effective he'd have been without 9/11, but he didn't even try.

Yeah, and that willingness to endure pain is often developed through elements soft power - making an argument, building a narrative, communicating and persuading people that the cause is vital and worthy.

One's own casualties are one aspect. The other is that many of the decisive victories of the past, from antiquity to the colonial age, were made possible by killing a huge proportion of the enemy civilian population. That's not politically feasible anymore, and I hope it stays like that.

The goal of regime change in Iraq was achieved and unlike in Afghanistan, the Ba'ath hasn't returned to power. Whether it was worth it for the US is another matter. The point is the situation in Iran isn't that US lacks "hard power", but that the US is unwilling to take many casualties in this case.

Shia-majority government is indeed a new regime. But reducing the US intervention to regime change and ommitting wmd, anti terrorism, state building/democratisation... Long story short, it failed.

Just like it bent Vietnam to its will? Iran is a big country. Fighting a war on the opposite side of the world is difficult and takes a lot of resources. When the army's leadership was above an IQ of 55, that leadership's recommendation was "don't do this".

2/ The Trump administration's complete neglect of soft power meant that when it turned around to NATO for help getting out of its self-created quagmire, not even the UK turned up. Meanwhile Zelenskyy charmed, memed and right-side-of-historied billions in aid that kept Ukraine in the fight.

3/ Obviously hard power is important - you need weapons if you're going to arm an ally, and if you don't have them you end up like the EU, signing an unbalanced trade treaty just to keep them flowing. But no one has ever said "hard power is irrelevant" whereas soft power is denegrated constantly.

And if soft power doesn't work, and you do find you have to resort to hard power, it should be done within a framework of international law, not an uncontrolled free-for-all, defying human rights and any kind of independent justice system.

4/ A country's reputation in the world matters. It just does. "All that naive hippy shit is irrelevant, what it all comes down to is missile destroyers and GDP" is the sort of faux-savvy world-weary cynical take that sounds like wisdom until you remember geopolitics isn't a game of Starcraft.

5/ In real world international relations you constantly need other countries to do things for you that are important but not so critical that you'll bomb their cities or blockade their ports to get it. It's a big, complicated planet! You need people's cooperation and soft-power helps you get it.

It's like Brexit all over again Dmitry, you just don't believe in it hard enough. The full benefits are just around the corner.

watching the US of all people do this is bizarre, but then I've also spent most my life face palming as successive UK governments have denigrated, defunded and abused every single thing the country does well, allows it to punch well above its weight and be thought of fondly by people around the

No one has said it loud but it describes Germany under Merkel and the idealistic parts of left wing parties. It was a return to thinking like before 1914 when so many people said that a great war would be stupid and against the interests of countries to attack each other.

The one really bright spot of all this has been to see how the public globally, including the US, are more anti war than ever in my lifetime.