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ghost malone ergo propter bones
@proptermalone.bsky.social

i don't really think WI-GOV was a polling miss so much as a huge amount of late movement. i'm sure there are things to fix on the polling side too, but like, if I take a picture of my street, and then a week later there are a bunch of new cars parked there, that's not the picture's fault.

Boston Tom Levenson
@tomlevenson.bsky.social

Also, tapping the sign, actual experts on polling (as in, not me) have been writing since El Sayed’s narrower-than-anticipated win, polling primaries is hard. The error bars are huge. Not clear, then, that this was a polling “miss” so much as a reflection of that inherent uncertainty.

Stacie Rosenzweig
@ethicking.com

I've seen someone else express this better than I will here, but I can't imagine it's easy to poll a primary with multiple candidates who mostly agree with each other, and with voters who are waiting to see who else drops out and whether they should vote their preference, or strategically.

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