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saw Prof Claudia Goldin give a public lecture on why the fertility rate is dropping; the tl;dr according to her is that it's difficult for a woman to tell in advance if a man will help enough with childrearing to avoid fucking over her career. men need more credible commitment to being good dads.

she specifically thinks it's about the uncertainty between actual good dads and not good dads, which is a very microeconomics way to look at decisionmaking. but also specifically not "greater autonomy => less fertility" as a mechanical relationship. many women report wanting more kids than they have

this suggests that institutions that improve men's credible commitment to being good dads or reduce the losses associated with bad dads would increase the fertility rate. could mean things like social norms that shame men who don't contribute enough, or more childrearing-friendly career structures.

my thread is a very minimalist sketch of an already compressed public lecture based on this working paper, probably you'll find more answers in the attached PDF than by asking me lol bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.harvar...

The thing about childrearing in this context is it’s not about being ‘good with kids’, it’s about there being no question that you wouldn’t do your equal share of ALL the increased domestic and mental labour that comes with having children.

I'm skeptical of this take anyway; historically men have been shit dads or absent in antiquity. There are too many variables such as education, access to entertainment that provides dopamine other than sex, discouragement of marriage which provides stability, and so on. Saying men need to be "good-